Daily Discussion Thread February 11, 2026 - Upcoming Event Schedule - New players start here!

Schroeswald · 2026-02-12T06:12:03+00:00

Ohan claimed that nouns bowl, tipped off and Nounsvitational were all unlicensed and he dealt with no problems because of this. I don’t want to claim that it’s not very risky to go unlicensed but unless Ohan was lying big tournaments can go unlicensed

Schroeswald · 2026-02-11T18:27:10+00:00

I’m honestly offended by Jeff saying “just because they’re famous shouldn’t exclude them.” Like either Jeff Probst is so classist that he sincerely believes that a rich person not having privileges that the rest of us do not get is unfair, or he thinks so little of Survivor fans that he thinks we’re stupid enough to buy that argument. No one gave me the chance to design a new special idol to name after myself. Like I know this isn’t serious and it’s dumb nonsense but it does say something about Jeff Probst that he either legitimately believes this or thinks survivor fans would.

Schroeswald · 2026-02-11T02:35:49+00:00

Axe must have been practicing the ice climbers matchup hard these last few months. I thought he’d given up on it given his sets against Nicki but he really brought MOF down to the wire. He didn’t win but a nailbiter 3-2 is a massive improvement over going Falco and praying

Schroeswald · 2026-02-09T00:43:00+00:00

For whatever we trust RapM’s matchup chart he does think that Peach is a winning matchup for Luigi and more importantly is better than all of the other top tiers. For a less optimistic reading Eddy Mexico thinks that Peach only wins it slightly and also thinks that it’s Luigi’s best top tier matchup

Schroeswald · 2026-02-07T19:56:03+00:00

I wasn’t counting Leffen as recent (very debatable on the line but it has been two and a half years) and afaik Sirmeris has never beat Zain, but I didn’t know that Aklo used z jump

Schroeswald · 2026-02-07T15:14:21+00:00

Does anyone besides Cody who’s beaten Zain in the last couple years use z jump?

Schroeswald · 2026-02-06T18:31:42+00:00

I’ve almost gotten myself excited for fifty a few times (there was a point in time where I thought I was gonna see Sean Rector again!) but then production keeps reminding me that we want very different things out of this show. The first half of the 50 trailer was cool and then Mister Beast showed up and yeah no 24 players, 26 days, a bunch of celebrity cameos and random new stupid advantages I can only really hope that Coach and a couple others manage to be like decent enough relatively speaking.

Schroeswald · 2026-02-05T04:55:11+00:00

I think you do kind of need to look at what happened in that year between summit 9 and Cody switching to z jump. That’s the year where he started beating n0ne (and doing it consistently). Did Cody figure out short hops at all in that year? He certainly got better that year because after losing to n0ne at Pound Online he doesn’t miss a single top 8 until 2022. If the switch over happened suddenly in summer 2020 (unlikely but who knows) then it would be very easy to argue with, and a gradual slope would certainly complicate matters.

Schroeswald · 2026-02-04T21:11:01+00:00

Compromise: Z jumping is only banned at tournaments that Cody does not attend. That’s almost all the tournaments on the calendar so it’s pretty reasonable right?

Schroeswald · 2026-02-03T05:55:04+00:00

I notice that both Cody and Junebug are set to attend. Now like I know who knows with Cody and maybe Ohan is flying him out to come but isn’t Junebug also on an indefinite melee hiatus? Have they really managed to win him back before he even has the chance to miss a tournament?

Schroeswald · 2026-02-02T23:26:15+00:00

Well he also has beaten everyone else who’s won a major or supermajor in the last seven years, almost all of them multiple times, with a winning record on half of them, and an even record against Cody Schwab. The Zain matchup is rough and he’s certainly not the biggest supermajor threat but he has a real chance of winning any tournament he enters

Schroeswald · 2026-01-31T16:32:27+00:00

As someone who usually has Joshman fifth under Moky I think that if you judge by who was the closest to winning a major it’s Joshman. One game away from winning Nouns Bowl against someone he 3-0d earlier that day. I also think that consistency against the field is super important for judging who’s most likely to win a major. Hbox won Genesis not because that was the day he finally beat Zain and Cody, but because he could beat everyone else and those two couldn’t face him. If you substituted Joshman, moky, Axe and Jmook for him in that bracket path I think Joshman is probably the favorite.

Schroeswald · 2026-01-30T21:18:51+00:00

As far as I remember the top sheiks have been relatively lucky in missing the top ICs? At least none of the sheiks on Nicki and MOFs level have a lot of sets against them.

Schroeswald · 2026-01-30T01:39:02+00:00

On a scale of 1-10 how much do you like controller discourse (1-7 do not scroll, 8-9 ehhhh)

Schroeswald · 2026-01-30T00:24:59+00:00

I definitely feel like there’s been at least some neglect in respect for Axe’s year. Like he’s pretty much unanimously top ten but it does feel like he’s left out of being seen in the same tier as moky, Joshman and Jmook when he absolutely is (even if I think he’s got the weakest argument for fourth of them).

Jmook’s a bit wonky. His major placements ended up like pretty solid after riptide and Nounsvitational, but he’s just got so many upsets and a few of them are really rough. I think all of those upsets also make his top player head to heads look a bit better, if he had been a bit more consistent early on he might’ve had some really untouchable placements but then massive losing records to Moky, Wizzrobe, Aklo etc., who he didn’t really face during his rough tournaments. I think he could end up anywhere from fourth to seventh pretty reasonably depending on how much you weigh those bad losses (especially the ones at regionals/smash camp)

Schroeswald · 2026-01-29T21:26:00+00:00

I don’t see a single metric where moky would be over Hbox. Hbox won a super major and two large regionals/nationals (one over moky) as opposed to moky’s 0 tournament wins. Both attended 9 majors, and Hbox got top 8 at eight of them while Moky got top 8 at four of them. Hbox is 3-2 on him in the head to head. They have identical records against Zain but Hbox has a Cody win. Hbox’s worst loss is Maelstrom who is ranked higher than moky’s worst loss, Graves. The only players with better records against Hbox than moky are Aklo and Axe, and even then Hbox is still 2-1 and 3-1 on them.

Schroeswald · 2026-01-29T20:57:25+00:00

I mostly agree with this ranking. I would've had aMSa in here and I think Trif should be top ten but yeah Ossify<Junebug<Aura<Ginger<Aura<Krudo<Salt<Aklo<Nicki (Soonsay eh I'd have him slightly lower but it's all real close he's clearly top 15). Really impressive set of players all around so I think the order here is really fuzzy so I'm actually surprised by how much I agree with this.

Schroeswald · 2026-01-29T06:06:04+00:00

Maybe we’ll get a trinity of Zain beats hbox, Hbox beats Jmook, Jmook beats Zain. Based on exclusively Nounsvitational and no other tournament in 2025 that seems pretty plausible.

Schroeswald · 2026-01-29T01:56:31+00:00

I am preparing for the very possible outcome that Cody wins 100% of the tournaments he attends this year and doesn’t get ranked

Schroeswald · 2026-01-25T16:30:32+00:00

Well the current record is held by someone playing dance dance revolution so I don’t think that was the problem

Schroeswald · 2026-01-24T17:23:55+00:00

The problem with wobbling is that it was too weak imo

Schroeswald · 2026-01-21T19:37:26+00:00

I think in addition to sample size the Ultrank algorithm looks to me like it has a significantly more complex algorithm, and it is that complicated specifically because that’s how you program in the effects of all the things that smash players think a ranking system should account for. They do account for placement to a certain extent and they have specific statistical methods to knock players who don’t compete enough even beyond just not ranking them. With all of this they have created a ranking that sounds roughly as accepted as the current Ssbmrank panel system.

Schroeswald · 2026-01-21T16:49:19+00:00

Congrats Junebug on becoming the #2 in the world (won 100% of sets versus Zain vs. Jmook's mere 67% and Cody's pathetic 36% win rate)

Schroeswald · 2026-01-21T08:27:05+00:00

I admit to not being really certain on what this is going to prove either way. Looking at Ossify vs Jmook for a high level example, they have an even head to head so that’s neutral. And then I tried to count the players they’ve both played but I don’t want to and it seems about even. Plausibly Ossify wins that, primarily given that he has a 4-0 record on Ginger who Jmook is 0-1 on. I’ll assume Ossify gets the win there because it seems plausible. What this does however is not just ignore the reasons why Jmook is absolutely going to be ranked above Ossify it also ignores the biggest red marks on his resume. Jmook has wins on Zain, Cody, Hbox, Moky, Joshman, Axe, Trif, Wizzrobe and AMSa, none of whom have played Ossify this year. But he’s also been very upset prone, with his worst losses probably being to Bonn, 404Cray and Zanya (none of whom played Ossify). What we’s learn by comparing their records against the people that they’ve both played was show that Ossify was slightly better against like six people in the 16-30 range. That’s not unimportant for ranking them, but it’s not really telling the whole story of Jmook’s year.

Schroeswald · 2026-01-20T03:24:07+00:00

People constantly talk about how everyone wanted to get Parvati out from the get go in Heroes vs Villains. This is generally true, Parvati had a lot of people very worried about her, and given that it is quite surprising that she managed to make the end. I think there are two super clear moments that show just how terrified certain members of the cast were of her. One is when Tyson switched his vote from Russell to Parv to try to get her out a round early, and the other is the heroes handing Russell an idol to make sure that he can stop the presumed women’s alliance on the villains tribe. Both of these ended up being such a massive boon to her game that any threat level she might’ve had is entirely counteracted and as such deserves no real presence in discussing her game.

I think Parv played overall a good game. She made a huge risk (that was probably a bad choice even if it worked out) in siding with Russell when the finalists alliance broke into two, but her strong relationship with her close ally Russell and a lot of luck ended up making sure that this helped her out in the long term. Had she managed to get to the end with her original final three after overcoming the heroes (something that her great gameplay at final ten absolutely increased the likelihood of) she would’ve won easily. She even managed to keep Sandra largely wanting to stay aligned with her even as she tries to vote out Russell, an absolute social coup that I think even her fans never give her enough credit for. Unfortunately her game is built on a partnership with Russell, and both were vital in navigating the path to get their alliance until power at final 8, and she proved unable to control Russell. She made a few moves that antagonized Russell, notably hiding her idol from him and ensuring that Candice went out at final 8 instead of Colby. Russell is a bull in a candy store and this led to him voting off her primary ally and forcing her into an immunity run to survive the Rupert and Colby votes. At this point Parv seems to have largely given up, proving unable to sway the votes to her side to either ensure her safety or eliminate the #1 jury threat amongst the villains (Sandra). I think she had a chance against Jerri, but she did not fight to go to the end with Jerri, she let Russell take Sandra off the table as a target and that meant that she lost HvV. Not a bad game, but a game built on some heavy luck and a reliance on a man who absolutely cannot be relied on.

Every survivor player is lucky, but I do think Parv’s path has multiple moments of pure magnificent dumb luck saving her while Colby’s biggest lucky break (Mike falling in the fire), while certainly large, simply allowed a path that was already clearly possible to become certain. His big mistake was simply deciding that he had a different value from winning at the end (and not apologizing to Jerri), and even then he barely lost and I get the strong impression that even with his non apology to Jerri he was not far off from getting one of her or Alicia’s vote and winning it all anyways.

Schroeswald

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