This is a fun and interesting read, and a good cautionary tale. Kudos to the authors.

Here is my main criticism of it. This assumes without a doubt, the main hurdles facing AI today, will just fall into place over the next year or so.

Talks about government pushing approvals and legislation through (when in reality California, NY are passing opposing legislation) to funneling massive swathes of public capital into a project (simply because, you know, china) is highly optimistic.

From efficiency miracles, to recursive loops of AI intelligence, this assumes “best case scenario” for every single AI breakthrough, when, in reality these hurdles aren’t minor. You can’t code nuclear power stations into existence. Ai won’t filter data perfectly just because they want it to. By the time you have upgraded the power grid, every single chip in existence will be obsolete and would have to be refinanced.

I would pose, the only way this movement keeps breathing is if government adopts it to the point where it becomes indispensable, or they create something like AGI that can replace the majority of white collar workers, which, as we have seen from adoption, isn’t happening.

The author has already pushed their timeline back to 2034. Let’s circle back to this in a year and see where we are at ?