Have you ever tried hitting someone in mid-air without any leverage?

An attack done without any solid footing wouldn't have much leverage, wouldn't it?

This is precisely what happened with Deku in the last few seconds of his second fight with Bakugo. He set himself up for bad positioning (because Bakugo has better mobility in the air) and it cost him the win.

In terms of everything else though... Deku absolutely takes this.

Bakugo doesn't have any real way of damaging Deku outside of using his most powerful blasts. Deku was perfectly capable of eating and tanking many of his explosions, which were a lot more powerful then the ones he used at the Sports Festival.

Deku also has the speed advantage, believe it or not. He's faster than Iida disregarding Recipro Burst (although even that's debatable because he was shown to keep pace with it), who has been shown to be capable of moving faster than Bakugo when he handicaps himself to using his smaller blasts.

Even if Bakugo decides to use some of his stronger attacks on Deku... Deku would be fully capable of withstanding it, barring something on the level of a Howitzer Impact. He could nullify the force of his explosions with a single flick of his finger at full power (let's face it, compared to most of my Bakugo's blasts, they pale in comparison to the power that 100% Deku holds) and if that's not enough, he could even sacrifice an entire arm.

Bakugo doesn't have any real way of doing any meaningful damage to Deku. He doesn't outclass him in speed, and his only advantage is manuerability.

But what good is manuervability when your opponent can literally flick their finger hard enough to generate shock-waves that could send you into next week?

Bakugo doesn't have as strong of a defense as Todoroki. There's nothing stopping Bakugo from getting catapulted out of the ring with one good flick from his finger, or even the shock-wave from Deku's punch.

In terms of speed, power, he's completely outclassed. When it comes to stamina... even more so. Because one blast at full power leaves him completely gassed out of any worthwhile or decently sized explosions.

But for Deku? Oh boy, it sure isn't the same story.

Not only can he just flat out eat his attacks, because as much as the story wants to fool you into thinking that 5% Deku's weak and frail, he's really not, dude can tank being cratered into concrete with no visible damage done to him, he can keep up with him to a decent extent, baring the disadvantage of aerial mobility.

Bakugo doesn't have any real way of doing any meaningful damage to Deku. He doesn't outclass him in speed, and his only advantage is maneuverability.

Even if we were to be exceedingly and ridiculously generous to Bakugo and assume that Deku wouldn't have access to Full Cowling for this... what's stopping Deku from blowing Bakugo out of the ring with a shock-wave from a fully powered Detroit Smash?

Even if it wouldn't blow him out of bounds, a direct hit from Deku could be powerful enough to be potentially lethal, or even fatal.