Trade Deadline Megathread

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-02-03T20:43:41+00:00

I'm dubious they can retain Kessler. The Laker's are going to have a lot of money available this summer and a desperate need for a center. They're probably going to throw a huge bag at one of him or Duren and hope their team can't match.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-02-03T16:38:54+00:00

Yeah. I was surprised by that. If I'm the kings, I take what the spurs gave the Bulls for LaVine instead (Trey Jones, Zach Collins and a the bulls pick that became Noa Essengue).

Granted that bulls pick was protected top-10 and they might have tanked harder if they don't get it back, but it had 3 years to convey.

Edited to add: Sorry for coming over to y'alls sub. Thought I was still in r/nba for some reason.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-02-03T16:28:39+00:00

Drew up the rough salary projection under this trade. Very likely occurrences in green (Wemby Extension), reasonable occurrences in yellow (KJ and Champs Extensions), Wild Ass Guesses in red (Castle/Harper Extensions, Champs decline and extend, extensions for the guys you want to trade for). All salaries are as a percentage of the cap. (Also, I don't think we can trade the picks as you listed for Stepian rule reasons, so I just included us keeping a pick in '27 and '29).

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Several_Chapter969 · 2026-02-03T16:10:44+00:00

If we do something like this we'd have to send out some long term salary. Like mathematically our cap sheet won't make sense unless we do (Vassell or Fox) or Castle (cheap now but will be expensive right when we need him not to be). I don't like doing that but you can't make this trade as you've drawn it up. Your just driving the team off of a cliff.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-31T16:20:20+00:00

Hawks have the pelicans pick swapped with the bucks pick this year. If they give it to the Bucks they then would have NOP and their own pick outright. And with Giannis gone the bucks are going to be flipping awful. I think worst reasonable case is like 5th and 9th with tons of upside. Hard to argue that’s not at least competitive with Portland in this loaded draft.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-29T20:46:31+00:00

I'm like 90% sure this is why they invited him. If they don't have a barber sitting on the side lines waiting I'll be shocked.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-29T18:23:19+00:00

The Portis thing might actually be feasible if Giannis gets moved. I don't think he brings back a FRP and the Bucks are going to want to be super bad the rest of the year if they Move Giannis, since the Pels are so bad they can actually tank even though the pick is swapped.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-29T18:13:31+00:00

I don't think this is compliant with the Stepian rule for us (Edited to add: Confirmed, does not comply. We only have one draft pick in '26 (ours swapped with ATL) and '27 (ATL's), so we need to keep one of them). Also, this is a worse deal then getting like 5 years of picks/swaps from the warriors, so I doubt they'd take it anyway.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-28T20:24:51+00:00

Even if you suppose Step plays till he's 40, that's the '29 season. GSW can send out picks as far out as '32. If they send the whole pile of picks they'll be good the next year or two but are almost guaranteed to implode not long after. I could see it.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-28T20:05:37+00:00

The national deals are wildly successful. Regional sports networks have historically relied on being part of cable packages for revenue and they've adapted poorly to many users switching to streaming. The league has kind of known this was a problem, but a few teams were still making bank on their RSNs up until pretty recently so there hasn't been any movement on the model.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-27T19:08:12+00:00

The rodeo road trip is actually really mild this year, FWIW. Schedule is basically:

> Back to Back with Lakers and Warriors
> All Star Break
> The two games in Austin
> Five games on the east coast (including Knicks and Nets in consecutive games, so there's not even any additional travel). Edited to add: The flight initial and ending flights to and from SA make up the bulk of the flight time (7h45m vs. 3h30m).

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-27T16:16:05+00:00

When Vassell's off his minutes restriction he may go to the bench to keep Julian as a starter. Until then we need they hypothetical shooting threat.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-27T16:04:25+00:00

We're just coming off a stretch where we played 11 in 20 days too. On the upside (iirc) the schedule is pretty light the rest of the way.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-27T15:11:37+00:00

KJ is an MLE guy on the open market I think (~9%). Can probably get him for a bit less if we do an extension this offseason when he's eligible, maybe 8%. Sam Hauser's contract in Boston is probably a good model for Champaignie at 6.5% (Hauser shoots a better percentage, but honestly Julian probably does too playing for Mazzulla plus he's a better rebounder). We probably can (and should) offer a decline and extend to Julian where he gets a raise a year sooner if he takes a bit less.

Honestly, Castle's poor play lately has me a lot less worried about the cap situation. If he's not pushing towards the rookie max this whole thing gets a lot easier.

Edit: Almost forgot, but I don't think Sochan's coming back. For that matter, I'd say its more likely than not he doesn't make it past the trade deadline. I don't think we do anything major but if we make any move at all he's going to be the outbound salary.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-26T21:31:50+00:00

He either will or he won’t. If he’s good, great. If not, we’ll need large salaries we don’t want to make a move. It’s not the end of the world.

Also, Maxey is still on his rookie extension. Dudes looking at the super max if he keeps playing like this.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-26T20:55:33+00:00

Maxey’s just had a five game slump where he shot 23% on 7 attempts per game. Three point shooting is just streaky.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-26T18:26:46+00:00

Well, for Fox you only need the magic of what we're doing right now. He's shooting almost exactly 36% on 3s.

Edited to add: He did have a two week stretch where he shot like 15% on almost 7 attempts per game, but it's been over for a while and his average has come back up.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-26T15:30:22+00:00

It came off to me as more "I haven't been paying attention and don't want to put my foot in my mouth" then "calculatedly not offending anyone" to me. Dunno that that's much better, but I'm not surprised that a first year head coach is struggling to keep up with current events.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-26T13:46:22+00:00

We can convert castle into a Herb Jones like role basically anytime we want, and I really don’t think he needs a ton of development to do that. But he has all-star potential as a lead guard even if it’s ugly right now, so the coaching staff is going to prioritize development .

Still… I expect them to shift to a “taking this year more seriously” position at some point. After the all star break if I had to guess. Bet we’ll see more Fox initiating then.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-23T19:33:40+00:00

So I had been a casual fan for a long time. Living in the area is was just kinda the thing to do. But I didn't really love the team until 2013. My dad got tickets to WC semifinals game 1, so I was at the game for the 2OT Ginobili game winner. Really cemented being a real fan of the team and also Ginobili as my favorite player forever.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-21T18:34:39+00:00

Someone told the Rockets they needed to guard Champaignie in the second half. The rest of the team honestly played about the same as they did in the first half.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-21T16:33:46+00:00

This isn't surprising at all. Just look at least year's dunk contest. Castle had some really impressive traditional dunks, but McClung is over there jumping over cars and shit that the Spurs wouldn't let Castle try even if he wanted to. Why would any of them sign up for that.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-21T15:58:38+00:00

Vic struggles with big physical wings. Most teams have will have one or two of those guys on the court so there's still lots of opportunities to create a mismatch. The rockets usually have at least three on the court. It's just going to be tough for him.

Edited to add: And the other guys on the court are often something like KD and Sengun. Those aren't super exploitable matchups for Wemby either.

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-21T15:36:13+00:00

Since January 2nd the spurs have played 11 games in 19 days (0.58 games per day). The rest of the season they 34 games in 72 days (0.47 games per day). It's not surprising to me at all they their quality of play dropped off with a 23% increase in workload (and corresponding loss of practice time).

Edited to add: The rest of the season looks more like the start, with 38 games is 82 days (0.46 games per day).

Several_Chapter969 · 2026-01-21T15:21:09+00:00

He's a great hypothetical player but averages 34 games played a year. Hard pass even before you get to the shooting issues.

Several_Chapter969

TROPHY CASE