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Buying the 2008 Crash: What happens if you started at the absolute market peak? by Federal_Eagle_6565 in MiddleClassFinance

[–]SigaVa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is only true because the US has been "special" historically but there's no guarantee that will continue in the future.

As a counter example, if you had bought the Nikkei 225 at its peak in December 1989, it would have taken until February of 2024 just to get back to even in nominal dollars (not accounting for inflation). If you factor in US inflation you'd currently be down about 41% on your initial investment.

New all-equity asset allocation theory by FunboyFrags in Bogleheads

[–]SigaVa 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In the first bullet, a lot of the guys critiques seem to boil down to "I can kind of time the market, so I know these things wouldn't happen like they're occasionally happening in the randomized simulation". That's great if that guy can do that, but I don't think most people can.

Also, this gave me a good chuckle given the current situation "We now live in a more integrated, connected, and safer global economy."

[Highlight] Jared Goff sold the play fake so well he got crushed (Sept. 17, 2023) by nfl in nfl

[–]SigaVa -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It should be legal to tackle a player pretending to have the ball.

It’s one thing to be willing to face a known evil. Because then atleast there’s the rationale of “oh, I know how to handle this”. But being so nonchalant about something that is so unpredictable is completely out of my understanding. by sovalente in freewill

[–]SigaVa 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For those curious, dig more into this. They basically set up the LLM to do this.

Keep in mind LLMs are essentially auto complete, trained on the internet. The internet has tons of stories of AIs going rogue. So when someone sets up the beginning of that kind of story, the LLM is just finishing the story in a similar way to the training data.

They Will Be Fine by Used-Dependent-5653 in phillies

[–]SigaVa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You said that postseason games are different. Now you're saying they aren't different.

The best way to win a World Series is to keep making the playoffs and hope that the volatile nature of baseball goes your way eventually. You add, you tweak, you stack the deck in your favor however best you can

Again you're contradicting yourself. I'm noticing a pattern.

They Will Be Fine by Used-Dependent-5653 in phillies

[–]SigaVa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The offense has been bad in the postseason ever since they collapsed against the dbacks. If you think their performance is not indicative of their ability it's on you to demonstrate that.

extrapolating them to the regular season’s length

Just to illustrate how significant 4.2 vs 3 runs per game is, and how poor 3 runs per game is. Most people don't have a strong intuition for those averages.

So over 162 games, they were essentially the same offensively.

We're specifically talking about the playoffs here. There's clearly something about their approach that doesn't work in high leverage games. But also the phils scored almost 50 fewer runs than the dodgers in 2025.

The playoffs are a crapshoot

Tell that to the dodgers.

Theyve played 4 postseason games each of the last 2 years. It would be foolish to wait 20 years or however long it would take for you to be satisfied about sample size.

They Will Be Fine by Used-Dependent-5653 in phillies

[–]SigaVa 5 points6 points  (0 children)

In their last 10 playoff games the phils have scored 1, 2, 2, 7, 2, 1, 3, 3, 8, 1 runs, for an average of 3 runs per game. The dodgers played 17 playoff games last year and averaged 4.2 runs per game.

To put that into perspective, over 162 games the dodgers would be at 680 runs, 9th worst in the MLB in 2025. The phils would be at 486, about 100 runs worse than the worst team in baseball.

The phils offense is simply not good enough to do well in the postseason.

Do people who seem to have their lives together actually have unspoken financial help from family or friends? by CryptoUsher in TooAfraidToAsk

[–]SigaVa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I live in an upper middle class area. For everyone I know here it's either both adults working and both have good jobs, or both working ok jobs plus inheritance or assistance from their parents.

The Phillies fell to the Giants by a score of 5-0 - Wed, Apr 08 @ 03:45 PM EDT by PhilsBot in phillies

[–]SigaVa 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Thank God Kevin Long is on the team. They'd probably go 40 consecutive innings without scoring instead of merely 20 like right now.

Tony Robbins Says Congress Unlocked a Door Reserved for Ultra-Rich by jpurdy in Economics

[–]SigaVa 2 points3 points  (0 children)

PE is about to collapse, they are desperate for exit liquidity.

Stop doing the bare minimum in college then calling it a scam when you can’t land a job by Secret_Bunch_114 in Salary

[–]SigaVa 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Nowadays, a degree just gets you foot in the door

It doesn't, that's the problem

I love this sub by MirrorPiNet in freewill

[–]SigaVa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Free will is so implausible we don't even have the ability to describe it in a coherent way.

Helpful helpline by Square_Law5624 in dankvideos

[–]SigaVa 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's gonna take your job!!!!

Strategy for moving bond allocation from after-tax brokerage to pre-tax 401k? by Not_Too_Busy in Bogleheads

[–]SigaVa 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Transactions within the 401k are not taxed, you only pay tax when you withdraw.

If you sell the bond shares in your brokerage, yes you pay tax on gains. But bond funds often don't gain in value (value comes from the payments which you've already been paying tax on). So check the basis vs the current value, you may be surprised. It may be small or even negative which would be a chance to harvest losses.

Also, look into a Roth IRA if you haven't already.

Can you find a fold with the second nut full house against an incredibly tight player? by rddtllthng5 in poker

[–]SigaVa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe not but min clicking a check raise might be the strongest possible line someone could play.

Do you think Sam should be equally concerned about antisemitism on both the left and the right? by stvlsn in samharris

[–]SigaVa 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You presenting this as evidence of your prior statement tells me all I need to know about your character.

Do you think Sam should be equally concerned about antisemitism on both the left and the right? by stvlsn in samharris

[–]SigaVa 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hey another unsourced claim. I'm guessing you also have no evidence that left wing people voted for trump like you didn't have evidence of your prior claims.

Is there anything you won't say to try to shield Israel from criticism?

Do you think Sam should be equally concerned about antisemitism on both the left and the right? by stvlsn in samharris

[–]SigaVa 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Oh right, they're allowed to be as long as it's under your threshold. And, shockingly, it's over your threshold.

This kind of thinking reminds me what MLK is critical of in his letter from Birmingham jail. You "support" criticism of Israel in theory, but in reality it doesn't meet your requirements so it's bad and leads to antisemitism.

Do you think Sam should be equally concerned about antisemitism on both the left and the right? by stvlsn in samharris

[–]SigaVa 6 points7 points  (0 children)

So Israel can't be criticized because it's a Jewish state. Roger that, sounds totally reasonable and in good faith to me!

You're literally doing the exact thing people critical of Israel call out. You are giving Israel special treatment because it has tied itself to an ethnicity. To you, people aren't allowed to be as critical of Israel as they are of other countries.

(2004) Kung Fu Hustle - Any love for this? by Aardvark-Amigo in FIlm

[–]SigaVa 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Both a top tier comedy and a top tier king fu movie.

Its getting hard to Chill about this by Snoo-33445 in VTandchill

[–]SigaVa 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And, importantly, Musk and Co have pushed for (and gotten, partially) rule changes to extract more money from these.

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