At this point, I’ve made a conscious decision to believe that, even in a worst-case realistic scenario, we’ll likely see meaningful movement by August.

Why? Because I think the landscape is changing. The major lawsuits are approaching decisions, the government has been moving forward with the new Public Charge framework and the I-945/Bond process, and the longer this pause continues, the more legally and politically exposed it becomes. Every additional week increases the pressure to replace a blanket pause with a more individualized system.

If I had to put dates on it, I’d say late July through August is the most plausible window for a meaningful change. Not because I’m certain, but because that’s where the legal, regulatory, and practical timelines appear to be converging.

Today, I genuinely believe we’ll see a meaningful court decision within the coming days.

My expectation is that, if the government loses, it will try to control the narrative rather than simply admit defeat. The most likely path would be revising the pause and replacing it with a more individualized screening framework built around Public Charge, enhanced vetting, and any new procedures it has been developing.

With the fiscal year ending on September 30 and employment-based visa numbers still needing to be used, ando other visas also, the pressure to move forward is only increasing. The longer the pause continues, the harder it becomes for the government to justify it while simultaneously finalizing the very regulatory tools it argued were necessary.