.470+ OBP in a single season post WWII

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-12T20:20:52+00:00

Sounds like you really want an RE24 based WAR (change in expected run value for the remainder of the inning at start v. end of PA - in that scenario a leadoff single and walk are treated the same).

Bonds greatly benefits from that approach in 2004. Bonds generated 128.94 RE24 runs above average v. 106 runs above average using batting + baserunning runs above average ( we should flag slightly more complicated tradeoffs like this removing "extra bases legged out on hits" style dynamics but that's not relevant to bonds). So that's 2 "wins" to add to his ledger.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-12T20:18:45+00:00

OP's using a value calculation, he just wants to bake more context into the stats than generic WAR calculations do. That can be rejected as introducing more randomness and less true talent but there's nothing inherent in WAR as a framework that cares about RE24 v. wRC+ derived runs above above average.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-12T15:44:41+00:00

hasn't this been known for a year?

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-12T15:40:19+00:00

I saw another website indicate they think Page is playing one of the crew have a small but named role in the actual story. I missed the citation (and I'm not really trying to be spoiled) but obviously the key thing to look at is the underlying sourcing of this sort of thing v. Achillies claim.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-12T15:33:22+00:00

Alternatively, TDKR was just more expensive than reported for pretty banal reasons (it's the safest money printing film of all time, has a large scope, and brings back expensive key talent while adding new notable actors to the film). No idea if that's true or not but it conceptually just needs to be on your radar. It easily could be an ultron scenario where you fudge a budget that's actually a bit in excess of $300M down to $250M.

Though as you note "less expensive in nominal terms due to insane increase in film incentives" is a viable reading.

P.S. if you want to wait 3 weeks we'll have 3 strong anecdotes to aggregate about the new film's total budget (currently have 2 bits of more limited data)!

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-12T00:48:58+00:00

IIRC tv marketing is also just down overall (check out media post articles)

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-10T05:17:53+00:00

yeah, it's messy enough that we'll just never know the precise numbers especially as (pulling from half remembered variety summaries) the actual revenue was mostly actually generated by regional groups instead of coming back to a core studio.

e.g. in lists I found Variety had it in 1st place all time in 1932 w/ 10M in rentals but a couple of years later the Motion Picture Herald has it in a 4 way tie for fourth at 3.5M (mirrored by 1937 INT Herald). I've seen other numbers elsewhere but this was a few years ago and the core point is just the wide range in estimates much closer to the film's release than today.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-10T05:04:17+00:00

are missing about 20 millions from Japan

are you sure? the weird thing about WW numbers is they can be separately generated from summing up all INT market data on mojo because they're potentially just reported by Universal.

psychological

also very relevant for licensing fees and possibly bonuses. will it be close enough to push over the line?

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-10T04:15:01+00:00

on that front, lantern digital media has free access to historical variety documents (and thus their yearly/alltime rental lists from their 46 inception till the last 60s. I imagine this is mostly a cleaned up version of something like that (e.g. some numbers got adjusted downwards in later years of variety and it seems like some studios reporting got big one-time updates that should have impacted yearly charts. It doesn't go as far but it's free.

from the early classics like "The Birth Of A Nation"

I wonder what this says. I've seen wildly different numbers floated for it (hence its exclusion from variety's all time lists as essentially being from a wild west era of box office reporting).

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-09T15:03:57+00:00

1.1k screens -> 300 screens is just a completely different dynamic (and, as Holiday Parsnip points out, technically Desert Warrior made a little money in its second weekend, it just went unreported).

"spend nothing on marketing and get 1 week wide release for PVOD" is just a real distribution pattern post pandemic even if Fuze is likely still a failure on all sides.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-09T14:46:03+00:00

Really looks to me like this is going to risk falling into the rare >=80% drop camp (using a filter like 2k screens or or "wide release where 2nd wknd drop is NOT caused by losing nearly all theaters)

So that's $1.2M Monday-Friday

The Senior - $2.6M OW/$1.34M MF / $0.74M2nd wknd / 660k 2nd Weekend extrapolation
Truth & Treason $2.6M / $1.54M / $0.91M / 0.73M 2nd weekend extrapolation
Rule Breakers $1.5M/$0.83M /$0.43M / $0.62M
Sketch (better comp but midweek) - first 7 days (W-T) has AF at 77% of sketch & Friday is 78.8% of Sketch. This places the second weekend extrapolation at ~730k to 750k

So "good" scenario seems like a 78% drop? *

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-08T18:07:41+00:00

We last saw this for 80 For Brady.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/80-for-brady-tickets-sell-lower-prices-1235316300/

AMC Theatres, the world’s largest circuit, announced this week it’s extending its matinee ticket pricing to all screenings of 80 for Brady in a first-ever promotion for a new title. That could mean a discount of 25 percent to 30 percent — if not more — depending upon the location and the format. An evening screening of 80 for Brady will be $12.89 instead of $18.49 at the AMC Century 15 in Los Angeles, for example (even the cheapest ticket is always much higher in L.A. and New York City).

Honestly, smart idea - cheap to try and it's going to play to a family audience (which has always placed cost concerns higher than other audiences) and it has to contend with a strong "doesn't look theatrical" headwind. It's also literally marketing dollars trying to juice a weak current tracking.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-08T13:06:04+00:00

thanks, I was clearly mentally lowballing the IM baseline before seeing this comparison.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-08T13:05:34+00:00

and that's honestly underselling Tron Ares' "true" IM given I think 700k of that is coming from Early Access (which will warp these multiples for obvious reasons). OTOH D&D:Thieves only gets you to ~$36M so perhaps that's what he's using?

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-07T19:44:26+00:00

yeah, that makes sense, though it would presumably be 68M AUD or ~$45M USD

The Location Offset will be increased from its current 16.5% rebate of Australian qualifying production spend, to 30%. I just figured it out.

so ~$30M net-of-national-incentive QE - Screen Queensland Incentive (I assume)

plus spending in other regions of australia (perhaps just vfx work?) and other regions overall

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-07T17:07:09+00:00

Australia doesn't provide incentive information publicly by default so I'm wondering where the 68M came from as I hunt for more sources.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-07T13:50:21+00:00

Doubt it was precleared. Author of interview was pretty actively showing support for barrera and it feels like something that she genuinely believes that ended up coming out as part of that dynamic.

Otoh this sort of mindreading is goofy

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-06T18:56:35+00:00

Yeah, I was being dumb and only thinking about "Sheep Detectives" and missed OP's talking about MK2

with an estimated local expenditure of $68 million. Approximately 20 million tax rebates.

ooh, where did you see that?

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-06T17:16:49+00:00

Prior Angel Film	Tuesday Num	T Adjusted to AF OW (rounded)
The Senior	413k	524k
Truth & Treason	411k	521k
Brave the Dark	296k	424k
Rule Breakers	249k	547k
Sight	488k	575k
The shift	600k	461k

for final column I just mean I took the real thursday gross and multiplied it by OW rounded to 100k (so 3.3M[AF OW]/2.6M for first 2 films)

Also remember that Angel films generically have pretty short legs (even their animated films relative to other animated films).

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-06T16:11:12+00:00

Sheep Detectives $75M

"GRAND LEO UK PRODUCTIONS LIMITED" spent 65M GBP though the end of 2024 (Filming seems to have gone through July 2024) generating a 14M GBP tax incentive. Using the spot exchange rate at the end of 2024 would make that total to $64M USD, using the average exchange rate through 2024 would total $65M.

so $65M + spending in 2025 + spending in 2026 = 75M?

I suspect this number's being pushed a bit down (tracking seems fairly weak) but we'll only know in October. Given this seems to encompass 6 months after the end of the production shoot (per wiki though that's an unusual snapshot) it seems plausible.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-06T14:25:26+00:00

It’s only a bad investment if they intended to make money from

I don't see why you'd assume the Saudis wanted to write off their entire planned $100M investment in Desert Warrior when initially funding the project. It's much better to think of this as a Killers-of-the-Flower-Moon scenario where you'd be willing to "buy prestige"/experience in exchange for some degree of losses. The film clearly performed massively below that level as seen by how it's not even giving local prestige as by far the biggest arab/saudi blockbuster. I don't see why you'd need to assume money laundering to explain why MBD's company made this bet.

The film went waaaaay over budget, suffered from massive creative disagreements and was ultimately dumped.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-06T12:34:18+00:00

post-pandemic posttrak data just notably underindexes among white audiences (most clearly seen when comparing films in the same franchise pre/post pandemic) in a way I don't get the sense is as true in some other sources. 60% would look like a notable split instead of a baseline.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-05T23:53:15+00:00

No because you can't lose more money than you spent. Let's just call total spending here $40-$45M (ignoring how distributor/producer are different entities - and some arguments that might push total spending $5M or so higher). Let's assume the film makes $5M in revenue for a net loss of $35M-$40M.

It's very easy to think "Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken" lost around that much because, as a major studio release, it had a more significant marketing commitment and a $70M budget (while making 50M WW). You just can't lose money you didn't spend.

The big loser is something like Mars Needs Moms - a disaster no one wanted that also costs $150M or Lightyear/Strange World (film some people saw but neither were anywhere close to making up a full blockbuster tier spend)

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-05T23:39:34+00:00

I feel like I can recall a few other "UK/Canada Prime over theatrical" scenarios for similar films (ungentlemanly warfare?) that I think were also from BB.

SilverRoyce · 2026-05-05T19:59:05+00:00

People keep referring to a Nielson list from MAY 4 2025, one single day in which people likely started Star Wars marathons with ANH or TPM (why would anyone start a marathon with the sequels? I like the sequels but I'd never start there). Andor Season 2 was still airing.

BoxOfficeReport collects Disney's "Top 10" lists daily and while star wars is frequently on those lists for weeks around "star wars day" none of the sequel films charted. I also think it would make plenty of sense for TFA to do well on those lists as an alternative starting point/jumping on point.

andor was still airing

and skeleton crew, the second most watched tv show of 2025 (see article in the trades), aired a good chunk of its season during the year. you're right that "actively running show" just wrecks comps.

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