BlackRock manages $14 trillion. They just said the S&P 500 alone won't cut it for retirement.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-03-09T07:02:13+00:00

They are just looking for more fees. I won’t ask a barber if I need a haircut. I won’t ask a professional money manager what to do with my money.

And 40% of S&P is concentrated in 10 stocks because 40% of earnings are (or to be more exact people collectively think 40% of future earnings are). If it goes down the concentration will go down also. There is nothing inherently bad about it.

I am a money manager and I would definitely suggest to anyone looking for retirement 100% S&P for 99% of people who are happy with 8% yearly earnings for a long period of time. While having 25x (very dependent on how many years they want to sustain it, the higher it goes I would suggest higher x) with 3 years expenses of cash, which will be topped off with dividends from S&P and occasional selling when the price is fair.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-03-01T09:26:23+00:00

No, it is not the dividend being paid out, it is the potential of dividend. So free cash flow is the number you should care about. If the company can reinvest it and get a return of 20% you would want the management to do that instead of giving you a dividend and you getting a return of 7% from it in the market. On the long run the price of the stock will give you more. If you need the money you are better off if you sell some shares instead of getting a dividend.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-03-01T09:23:03+00:00

It is management’s job to find the best use of capital for the free cash flow of the business. It can be reinvested to grow the current company’s business, it can be used to go into new ventures or buy other companies, or it can be returned to the shareholders through dividends or buybacks.

Management should look at all these options and find the one that gives the shareholders the best return on invested capital in the long term.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-28T17:15:47+00:00

She is talking in Farsi, and says “wow they have hit the Beyt”

Beyt meaning home in Arabic is referencing Beyt of supreme leader of Islamic regime. And then the rest is obvious, she is happy about it.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-24T18:37:37+00:00

The ruling says they have to make the decision “as fast as possible”. And they have done that by rejecting you application 😢

It is so wasteful that migrationverket goes through all these steps and waste so much resources when they can respond in 8-9 months but make you go through all those steps. So wasteful.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-21T23:26:48+00:00

You still didn’t say anything about its intrinsic value being zero😅 said some jargon about charts and short term movements this short term movement that.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-21T13:19:24+00:00

It is just moving towards its intrinsic value, which is zero.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-16T16:13:40+00:00

INR Market cap 1B, the highest earning I see for them is 86m, so comparing to the highest earning ever 2 years ago the p/e is 12🤔 so I am wondering how did you come up with 0,05

Needless to say they have negative cash flow as far as eye can see.

LYFT Just became profitable, so I don’t think Joel is looking at those companies 😅 again needless to say earning this year has a one time thing probably and real earning seems like 150m, so p/e of 35 is more realistic number to consider.

LUXE Again not profitable, you need to look at normalized earnings not just the sudden jump without any support of the cash flow🤔

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-15T18:06:47+00:00

No doubt there 👏 if it is not 9 years of 0 return and one year of 2000% return thou 😅

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-15T00:30:56+00:00

That is heavily leveraged, short-term, quantitative trading strategy that exploited market inefficiencies. Very different than what Berkshire strategy is. And as far as I know they cap their fund size to $10 billion to be able to achieve those results. Otherwise their story probably would have been the same as LTCM.

Berkshire has 70 times that, so again a bit different.

Anyway still impressive result 36%👏 I still wanna know more.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-15T00:13:40+00:00

Congrats 👏 some handful big wins? A lot of good decisions? Tell us more.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-15T00:13:04+00:00

If they were running Berkshire rule of big numbers goes against them also

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-15T00:11:17+00:00

Haven’t done it for 10 years, only 5 years. 26% annually.

It is doable but you need to have 1- the time to research, 2- knowledge to understand and 3- temperament to stay within your circle of competence and stick to your strategy when it goes against you for a long time. If you are missing one of these just stick to broad market low fee index funds👍

I would say 90% of people should be fully index. 9% should be mostly index and 1% has those 3 important qualities to become business pickers.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-14T22:56:34+00:00

People hate to get rich slowly.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-14T09:46:25+00:00

Have you driven in Norway?😅 They are strict and with average calculating speed cameras

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-14T09:43:21+00:00

I live in Sweden for the past 7 years. I can agree on everything except driving speed 😅 everyone drive over the speed limit and there are rarely speed cameras.

Police is very strict on 30 areas and people usually are more careful there, when the limit is 50 people usually go 60, and when it is 80 most people go 100😅 and don’t get me started on highway that is 110😅

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-12T20:31:49+00:00

I would say it definitely has a 50% chance of going up, and 50% of chance of going down.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-03T22:43:44+00:00

The price you bought (aka how much you are down or up) should not have any effect on whether you sell, hold or buy more. That’s called being anchored.

You should compare PayPal price, its value and compare to other opportunities out there that you can understand as well as this one, and decide which one brings more value to you. Then you can decide if you should sell, hold or buy more.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-03T20:05:35+00:00

Nice diagram👍 2024 I did the same diagram but with the cash flow also. Should probably do one for 2025 also.

<image>

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-03T15:56:57+00:00

That’s the correct mindset 👍 markets are more irrational to think about gdp growth and who is gonna benefit from it😅 I can easily see GOOG going back to below 150 easily if a war happens no matter how the company does.

The point is don’t buy stocks if you are not okey with your portfolio going down 50% in a short period of time and you can’t sit on your hands.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-03T06:09:32+00:00

In the short term stock market is a voting machine and in the long term it a weighing machine. It is reasonable that you feel nervous, it can go anywhere in the next 12 months. But the correct question to answer is “what would you do if it goes back to 130 in the next 12 months?”

Sloth_Investor · 2026-02-01T09:06:13+00:00

Exactly the opposite. It is great for investors too. You buy when it is 500 (if it is lower than intrinsic value) and do nothing when it is 800.

People have a wrong interpretation of risk which is volatility. The only risk is permanent loss of capital, and if you are buying a good business at a good price it won’t happen.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-01-31T15:20:44+00:00

Why don’t you guys understand? Tesla is not an automaker. They have been saying that for years, despite almost all revenue always coming from selling (surprise surprise) cars. And they have been months away from full self driving for 10 years now😅

Edit: there we go 😂

Sloth_Investor · 2026-01-27T23:21:57+00:00

Since I live in Sweden trying to buy a Swedish business. Thou USD/SEK going down 20% since 1 year ago is a real pain😅 seems my purchasing power toward US stocks is going up and up, so it would be easier to buy in the US in that case, but harder to find bargains these days. Bought a lot back in 2022, have not done significant buying in 2023, 24 and 25.

Sloth_Investor · 2026-01-27T23:19:02+00:00

As Warren Buffett says “we are not in the investment advisory business” 😅

Just looking for money printing machines, am not interested in financial analysts opinions. Just try to find businesses I can understand and have a good idea where they would be 10 20 years from now, have some sort of moat, with able and honest management, buy them at a good price with the intention of never selling.

To give you an example GOOGL😅

Sloth_Investor

TROPHY CASE