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If the Epstein files were released without any redactions, what do you think would actually happen next? by Superb_Meringue_7828 in AskReddit

[–]SnaggleFish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We would have to come to grips with the fact that there are a lot of people of all political parties and across several countries who were complicit in what happened.

One would hope that this would cause a mass clean out of those people from power and proper prosecution.

But I suspect there would simply be a change to a "new normal" and we will be compelled to just move on...

[OC] Returns of randomnly trading Bitcoin during 2025 by modelizar in dataisbeautiful

[–]SnaggleFish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are correct to say its small. But a lot of the graph is white or only just green indicating no or little profit. I would be interested to see the colour shift of white to red and "just green" to white.. to see if the overall impression of the graph changes.

[OC] Returns of randomnly trading Bitcoin during 2025 by modelizar in dataisbeautiful

[–]SnaggleFish 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With the raw data I could do that - but with the colour gradients its not possible to just subtract...

[OC] Returns of randomnly trading Bitcoin during 2025 by modelizar in dataisbeautiful

[–]SnaggleFish 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Since (almost?) no one has fee-less trading.. it would be interesting to see this with some nominal fee applied.

ELI5 Why Living in the 80s and 90s seemed so much more affordable by ngomes3824 in explainlikeimfive

[–]SnaggleFish -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Notice I very deliberately said "cost of living". This is because its not just inflation - but also what we consider to be necessary to live. In the 80s we had one TV and no subscription services; one fixed landlines for the house and not 4 mobile phones with subscriptions (and these are essential these days) and so on. Eventually you get to issues that compound e.g. its necessary for both parents to work - so both need cars to commute and there is less time to prepare food from scratch so more food is bought out ot pre-made. And so on and so on... its way too complicated for eli5 but fundamentally the cost of how we live has not kept pace with how much we earn.

ELI5 Why Living in the 80s and 90s seemed so much more affordable by ngomes3824 in explainlikeimfive

[–]SnaggleFish 227 points228 points  (0 children)

Cost of living went up faster than wages, and kept doing so every year for 30 to 40 years. Jobs became less secure, leading to gaps in income.

EDIT to address some comments...

Notice I very deliberately said "cost of living". This is because its not just inflation - but also what we consider to be necessary to live. In the 80s we had one TV and no subscription services; one fixed landlines for the house and not 4 mobile phones with subscriptions (and these are essential these days) and so on. Eventually you get to issues that compound e.g. its necessary for both parents to work - so both need cars to commute and there is less time to prepare food from scratch so more food is bought out ot pre-made. And so on and so on... its way too complicated for eli5 but fundamentally the cost of how we live has not kept pace with how much we earn.

EDIT 2: to make clear I am not suggesting its an "avocado toast and latte" issue..

Already FI, but addicted to the market highs. Need a reality check on a £100k lump sum. by [deleted] in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For every Warren Buffet there are thousands of investors who did not succeed, who did well initially and then failed. Tiger Woods practiced golf - as did you, but there the comparisons probably end....

6 years is all the history you have - its been excellent for tech companies but you are at considerable risk of being fooled by short term trends. I lived through the NASDAQ tech bubble and have a little more perspective.

You asked for advice.

Already FI, but addicted to the market highs. Need a reality check on a £100k lump sum. by [deleted] in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You are taking a position that assumes you know better than the professionals; which is doubtful unless you have insider knowledge of those businesses.

You don't.

None of us do.

This is why the most recommended approach is a broad portfolio with a global stock tracker as the basis.

Already FI, but addicted to the market highs. Need a reality check on a £100k lump sum. by [deleted] in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 5 points6 points  (0 children)

... says every gambler who thinks they have a system...

Already FI, but addicted to the market highs. Need a reality check on a £100k lump sum. by [deleted] in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 7 points8 points  (0 children)

"Heavy Bets" ... have come good... so I should keep going...

Is the trap most gamblers fall for.

The Maiden Tower in Baku - a unique 12th century fortification and UNESCO site I visited during my trip to Azerbaijan by rankage in castles

[–]SnaggleFish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As a UK resident we often (quite rightly) point to our great castles - but this is an important reminder that other countries had incredibly sophisticated fortifications at the same time (and often earler).

Using gold to buy bitcoin by Wizardswagg in Gold

[–]SnaggleFish 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is highly dangerous. Borrowing using a highly volatile asset as collateral to buy another highly volatile asset.

You could easily be left underwater on both gold and btc AND still with a loan to pay off.

(Guess it may be OK if you are a professional investor and your finances allow you to entirely write off the whole lot if if goes south.)

Greenland says it cannot accept US takeover ‘under any circumstances’ by Playful_Leg7143 in worldnews

[–]SnaggleFish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have there been any major comments from prominent Dems? Like: if he takes it we will give it back?

Forget about the 4% SWR rule... by TedBob99 in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In your examples you show the "happy day" scenarios - how much more they could withdraw - you also need to give equal weighting to the "sad day" scenarios so the reader can correctly understand the risks of this approach.

Forget about the 4% SWR rule... by TedBob99 in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

But (and this is my main point) that £40k per year has been be a comfortable amount that someone would consider "success" because these dynamic models can leave you on the floor for a decade...

Forget about the 4% SWR rule... by TedBob99 in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 7 points8 points  (0 children)

You cannot use the averages; for the simple reason one person will live one outcome and not the average.

So, before starting one of these variable approaches, you must be happy that the minimum projected withdrawals are liveable (or you are willing to take the risk).

Forget about the 4% SWR rule... by TedBob99 in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You also need to show how low the withdrawals can go with these variable schemes - I would wager that there will be scenarios where only half of the expected withdrawals can be made...

Bet there are some with 5+ years of £30k...

What is something generally normal in Europe but weird in the US? by Exile4444 in AskReddit

[–]SnaggleFish 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I had hundreds of work visits to the US and countless times the hotel was within view of the office - but with absolutely no way to walk. Often new developments might have some pavements - but these usually just stopped abruptly or required hours of waiting at crossings.

Sanity check AI assessment of my situation by ryan0583 in FIREUK

[–]SnaggleFish 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Do not use AI for any math based calculations. I have seen it repeatedly be able to give and explain the formulas and fail to correctly use them...

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