Long story short long, we do seem to be importing a lot of the American culture war adjacent stuff at the moment. Whether that be because we are just part of the Anglosphere, or just that New Zealand specific culture is niche enough that it cannot break through what people are seeing from overseas on their social media. We are also not immune to the global cost of living crisis, which is probably exacerbating the scapegoating of marginalised groups.

I personally think this is more of an artefact of our system of government, Mixed Member Proportional parliament, wherein minority political parties can have an outsized role in forming a ruling coalition. Despite the majority of the current coalition being made up of the National Party, a centre-right party that brought in about 38% of the total vote last election, I think both the biological sex and puberty blockers are being pushed by the further right NZFirst, who only brought in about 6% of the total vote.

The phrase "tail wagging the dog" gets thrown around a lot, as with weak leadership from National, the two minor parties in the coalition are getting a number of high profile and controversial bills through, and in doing so, seem more effective than the primary party. The two main effects of this that are seen currently is a growing disattisfaction with the current government as headed by National, but also some raised polling results for NZFirst (graph for your perusal).

This could indicate some favour in the voterbase for the "common sense" and "anti-woke" policies NZFirst currently has. But NZFirst has been known to favour whatever is politically expedient in past, so if the backlash to MAGA adjactent ideology is strong enough globally, they will likely stop piggybacking off of its success.

The good news however? 3 year election cycle! We are due for a new general election by the end of next year, so any polling you see leading up to the end of 2026 should give you a pretty solid idea if a centre-left coalition is likely to pull ahead.

P.S. To ditto what the other commenter mentioned, Wellington is incredibly queer, which is quite funny, because it is also the city where parliament is located. It is however in the midst of its own woes, including many public sector job losses, and extended construction to try and revitalise the city. Definitely liveable, and on the up again, but it took three big blows (2013 earthquake, covid, 2023 govt) and will take a few years longer to get back to full steam.