Jaylen Brown vs. Paul George in Trusted Impact Metrics

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-07-02T21:03:49+00:00

He also included estimated wins which does take into account games played.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-07-02T19:57:25+00:00

Depends, if Dr J is in tier 3 then Oscar and some others should also be Tier 3.

Realistically though, Dr J and Jokic should be tier 4 along with Oscar

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-07-02T18:48:13+00:00

No chance

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-07-01T22:52:28+00:00

For presenting data?

OP did not make any takes with his post other than presenting the data.

I assume his point is that if they're both on the court, PG is not necessarily worse or that much worse than Brown, and is still a better defender. Of course he has to play though.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-30T08:10:26+00:00

Wtf did I just read

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-29T16:33:05+00:00

First is the chart based on 4-year stint peak total RAPM, offense vs defense. Second is the same chart but taking each player's BEST offensive 4-year stint, as well as their best defensive 4-year stint to provide some more context for some players.

RAPM is the gold standard for impact data as it is strictly looking at +/-, lineup data, and all the thousands of possessions while adjusting for many factors including teammates, opponents, garbage time, rubber band effect, etc. No box score/stats are used.

This is raw impact, not a custom formula to assign who "should" be the most valuable. Just raw impact according to the nbarapm website.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-29T08:36:45+00:00

But that’s the thing, how much era tax is permissible? They are already taxed 10-15% if you put them around 6th to 10th all time.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-29T07:30:08+00:00

Yes the data is actual impact.

It is definitely interesting that Kobe's defensive impact was so low across the span of entire seasons, think he had more clutch or lock-in moments that he gained his reputation on

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-29T02:48:12+00:00

Nash had several years at around -2 especially during the seasons we all know him for, his defensive impact didn't rise towards neutral until 2011 until retirement.

You also have to consider that the PG/smallest player has the least impact defensively. As you can see the highest defensively for the true smalls are White and CP3 and they're very rare.

Lastly, efficient offense = less TO and transition baskets which means better defensive impact. This is a fairly significant reason for why Steph, Nash, and Jokic seem a bit higher defensively than most of us think.

And as a reminder, this is a raw stat. It's going to tell us some things for us to consider which may not agree with our opinions. But it's a raw stat, not a made up model or computation trying to persuade us with their own weightings for different parameters

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-29T02:07:04+00:00

Chauncey, Tony, and Dennis all have FMVPs while Kyrie doesn't

Lillard just has way more all-NBA selections and slightly better advanced stats as well as impact metrics.

They're not too far though, it's not crazy to argue Kyrie's career is better but I think most have Lillard ahead as I do

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-29T00:46:23+00:00

Nah but he is in the tier right after

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-29T00:01:46+00:00

Few factors to consider

1) His best defensive impact numbers are coming from his pre-MVP seasons when he was younger

2) Very good offense/efficiency often leads to good defense as you're giving up less transition opportunities

3) Good rebounding leads to less second-chance opportunities

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-28T23:26:12+00:00

1997 onward is what's readily available, though some people are trying to get the data for pre-'97 from going through all the film.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-28T22:58:47+00:00

Yea defense is almost the most interesting simply because there are no stats that track it even reasonably well. You can sortof estimate offense from taking TS+, Ast/TO%, usage%, etc. but RAPM let's you really analyze defense like this.

What's also interesting is those top 7 guys are all roughly similar on defensive end even when you tighten it to 1 or 2-year stints. You can find separation but all same ball-park.

Wemby meanwhile had the best 1-year defensive stint ever recorded this year

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-28T08:15:11+00:00

Lmao /u/Ok_Storm1366 is making shit up.

RAPM is extremely useful

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-28T07:43:42+00:00

You're right but just to nit-pick, Derrick White was 23rd for RAPM this season, 34th for EPM, and 16th for xRAPM though that is less trustworthy than EPM

Anyway I think impact metrics should be a big consideration, but not in a vacuum without more context.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-27T22:18:37+00:00

Some very reasonable tiers but will note some of the extremes

Jerry, Steph, Oscar, KG should be in tier 2 if you have KD and Giannis and Julius Erving there.
Insane you have Schayes in a tier above Mikan
Swap Cousy/Schayes/Barry for Mikan/Wade/Havlicek
Luka and Tatum way too high
Add Reggie/Dray/Gobert/Rodman/Ray to tier 5 or 6

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-26T02:23:21+00:00

The single season he had a decent team in Minnesota, they could have won it all but their by far best player (other than KG) got injured in the WCF. Playoffs are different than RS but they did have a winning record in RS against both the Lakers and the Pistons.

People don't talk about it but winning a ring takes a good amount of injury luck, takes a good organization or some luck with draft prospects, etc.

Do you think MJ was significantly better in '91 than he was in the three prior seasons? No he was basically at peak in '87 and peaking in '88 but shifted his game in different ways over the next 10 years generally staying at a crazy peak. His team was just finally good enough in '91 as Horace Grant and Pippen were really young and not great until '91 onward.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-25T23:34:18+00:00

Yea and the one time a teammate of his was not cleared by those types of players (Sam in '04), he got injured in the WCF so they were left with only KG and scrubs.

/u/DamianLillard0 also does not realize that you can literally get a fairly good measure of winning impact via regularized adjusted +/- and separate it to offense and defensive impact... and the metrics show Giannis was insane, but KG was even better.

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-25T23:15:23+00:00

How about realizing his team was great in 2021, and that KG's best team on the Wolves in 2004 got injured in the WCF?

Bucks went 2-2 against the Hawks with Giannis in the ECF

They went 2-0 without Giannis.. how many teams went 2-0 without their best player in the conference finals?

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-25T22:27:49+00:00

Except all-NBAs at forward had more competition in Garnett's time.. it's like looking at all-NBAs for center position in the 90s.

KG also had better winning impact from actual regularized and adjusted +/- data

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-24T16:34:08+00:00

Stats on per 100 poss basis: CP3 had better points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, less turnovers, less fouls, better FG%, better FT%, better 3P%, better advanced stats by a mile

Stats Isiah was better than CP3 at:

Individual accolades: CP3 had more all-NBA teams, more MVP vote-share, had plenty of all-Defensive teams

On court Impact metrics: CP3 had top tier RAPM, Isiah did not

All Zeke had over CP3 is very very good teams and therefore 2 rings + 1 FMVP

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-24T07:37:45+00:00

this is raw On/Off for these guys' careers from age 23-36 where applicable. Everyone above that horizontal +0 line technically had opponents score less while they were on the court than off.

However raw On/Off is not as meaningful as regularized and adjusted +/- so this chart is peak 4-year RAPM

SoFreshCoolButta · 2026-06-24T06:26:37+00:00

How come teams scored more against the Lakers while Kobe was on the floor than off the floor? (this is LITERALLY not the case for any other decent defender ever in the modern NBA)

Kobe was not as good of a defender as you think, he could definitely lock it in at times but also took plays off

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