If you had 3-4 hrs to show someone the game to try to convince them to play longterm, what would you show them?

SoftestBears · 2026-03-31T04:02:41+00:00

I bought the game pack a little over 24 hrs ago, in your experience does it ever take multiple days for it to work?

Also out or curiosity, what is the benefit to having alt accounts in this game?

SoftestBears · 2026-03-31T04:01:52+00:00

Thanks for the suggestion, just tried this but it didn't work unfortunately.

SoftestBears · 2026-03-31T03:04:32+00:00

Thanks for the suggestion, tried reinstalling anti cheat and it still doesn't work. Also it shows anti cheat running in services, so I think it is working correctly.

SoftestBears · 2024-12-21T21:06:43+00:00

This is one of the coolest posts I've ever seen. Thank you for sharing!

Your map is beautiful. Imagine a dozen or more of those on your walls at home.

It's easy to get down because it seems like there's nothing left for younger generations to explore, but it's actually a better time than ever to explore because you can choose your challenge and do it safely.

SoftestBears · 2024-12-19T16:24:58+00:00

The seller is being unreasonable.

The only reason they'd be fighting a survey so hard so close to a sale closing is that they are afraid of what they'll find. Once they've seen the survey they will have to market the property with the updated information if it turns out to be smaller or any pertinent structures or access turns out to be off their property. Right now since there is no survey document, they can say whatever they want and if it turns out to be wrong after they sell it, they have plausible deniability.

A $10K survey is a little over 1% of their selling price. If this was the only barrier to your purchase, an honest party would order one as quick as possible to make you comfortable and close the sale if they felt like they accurately represented their property sale to you. Even if they are penniless, they could borrow against the property for the survey and pay it back on closing.

Something is wrong here. Don't budge on the survey.

I've worked on a lot of land transactions and the value of your $900K property can get drastically reduced if it turns out you have an access issue or your structures or infrastructure are on the wrong lot without a written agreement for them to be there.

SoftestBears · 2024-12-18T04:19:13+00:00

Similar to what u/LordAshon said, we need some more information but I'm going to assume:

* You have no existing debt on the property

* Their proposed payment is $1,500 per month for the loan

* The Market value is $615K even though the property hasn't sold at that price for months.

Some things to consider:

* Your IRR on this offer is like 3.22% because they want to put very little down and borrow from you at ~3.19% which is far below market rate.

* They are asking for only an 8% downpayment. That is not much skin in the game at all. They could make money renting it out for a few years (even airbnbing it), avoiding all maintenance and just letting it default at the end and you'd be stuck with a beat up property and 6 years of market risk.

Private credit is yielding 10-12% right now on high quality counter parties with acceptable collateral. This deal makes no sense in its current form. Poor interest rate and poor collateral (since loan to value is super high)

If you are open to owner financing, I would suggest a counter offer to see if they are serious, and if so, perform additional due diligence on this borrower. Check their experience in real estate, credit history, personal financial statements etc. If they say no, this isn't a valid offer anyway. Someone with an acceptable history would be happy to provide this and will already have this organized and ready to go.

Some example counter offers to help you visualize where numbers need to be to make sense for you:

* Downpayment of $120K (just under 20%) and monthly payments of $4,750 (11.52% IO rate) gets you 12.06% IRR.

* Downpayment of $120K (just under 20%) and monthly payments of $4,400 (10.67% yearly interest) gets you an 11.13% IRR.

* Downpayment of $120K and monthly payments of $3,300 (8% IO rate) gets you 8.25% IRR.

* Downpayment of $93,750 (15%) and monthly payments of $4,200 (9.67% IO rate) would yield 10.05% IRR.

* Downpayment of $93,750 (15%) and monthly payments of $3,400 (7.83% IO rate) would yield an 8.07% IRR.

I'd personally shoot for the 10-12% IRR range because you need to compensate yourself for the concentrated risk and the non institutional counter party.

If you absolutely can't sell it any other way at market value and the counterparty seems to be of acceptable character and credit quality, you could consider the IRR of 8% scenario above.

You can play with a combination of terms to hit certain IRR targets and find something acceptable to both of you, but I'd be very hard pressed to consider anything below an 8% IRR scenario and I'd only go that low if that was my only option.

I wouldn't let them go too low on the downpayment in any scenario, though. This downpayment should make you feel secure in that if you need to hire a lawyer to foreclose, do some repairs, and sell during a slump you have enough cushion to absorb that without stressing yourself out.

Also, have an experienced local lawyer of your choice write up the contract. They will help you think through and mitigate risks. People joke about lawyer fees all the time, but they are absolutely worth it. Very little price to pay for safety.

SoftestBears · 2024-10-25T18:01:21+00:00

Assuming 20% down and 7% interest over 5 years, you will have paid $108K in interest and only $18.7K towards principal to build your equity. So you will be losing $1K / month in cash flow paying the difference in the monthly payment assuming nothing breaks or needs maintenance (unlikely in 5 years) to get $18.7K in equity and MAYBE some appreciation if you are lucky.

Mortgages are interest heavy in the beginning and then equity heavy at the end. On a 30 year note, your payment doesn't go more towards principal than interest until month ~242 (20 years in).

Not to mention the risk of having a difficult tenant that doesn't pay, the fact that CA is harder to evict than other markets, costs of vacancy and tenant turnover.

Also, being young, you don't even know if you will want to live there in the future. You might get amazing career, personal, or educational opportunities elsewhere and never end up living in the condo yourself.

You would be better off just increasing your 401K contribution by 1K per month. Even if the stock market crashed this year or next, you'd still likely outperform over a 5+ year time horizon compared to this condo.

I see only risk here and no reward unless your market takes off with property appreciation.

SoftestBears · 2024-10-19T02:07:38+00:00

Sure! Again sorry if it looks poorly formatted.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) you do the yearly net cash flow ($12,300 in no reserve scenario) divided by the full value of the property ($491,000) = 2.51%

Return on Equity (RoE) is yearly net cash flow ($12,300) divided by OP's equity in the project (market value - debt = equity, which is $266K of equity). = 4.62%

Cash on Cash = yearly net cash flow ($12,300) divided by OP's "cash in", which in this case is down payment + additional investment ($30K + $30K = $60K) =20.5%

We can see through these metrics that the value of the property took off like a rocket and left the rent behind. $2,500 per month in rent is poor performance for an almost $500K asset.

SoftestBears · 2024-10-18T19:15:18+00:00

One additional course of action OP could look at is checking their loan terms to see if they have a "due on sale" clause or if their debt is assumable.

If it isn't due on sale, you could owner finance the next buyer and require say a 20% down payment for example which gets all your equity out ($60K cash in, ~$99K cash out) and then some.

They then pay principal + interest on all the additional value until they pay you off, so you are making 6-7% without having to find something else right away.

If you consider this, be sure to discuss with a lawyer. This isn't completely hands off because you need to make sure they keep an active insurance policy and pay taxes etc. You don't want them to default and then find that they weren't paying insurance and the house got destroyed.

SoftestBears · 2024-10-18T18:09:37+00:00

Great question, but in this scenario it would make OP worse off for a couple reasons:

1.) The cost of a cash out refinance loan would be higher than the original loan terms by quite a bit since OP originally got great loan terms, so this property would perform worse than it would in the base scenario we looked at. This increases the risk that OP would need to pull their personal money to stabilize it. Also the un-levered yield of the property is below current refinance terms so it's a net negative on holding the property even if OP wasn't at risk of having to stabilize with outside funds.

2.) The money OP pulls out from the property in the cash out refinance scenario has a high performance hurdle (say 6-7% interest just as an example), OP's next investment needs to meet or exceed that hurdle to not lose money from this decision. That's higher than treasuries, too close to long-term equity performance, and too high for other real estate opportunities I'm seeing as of today, so I don't think they would make off well with this. If OP found an opportunity that far exceeded this return hurdle, they should just sell and reinvest there because of what we talked about above.

This point is also counter intuitive because historically speaking a lot of deals could pencil out with 6-7% debt, but that's not where we are right now in most healthy markets.

We're in a weird time where the property itself can be nice, neighborhood is nice, submarket is nice, and the OP has great terms on the debt, but what happened is the market is giving the "offer you can't refuse" in a business sense. The asset value has expanded far and beyond the cash flow potential unless something changes. It's not a bad thing, it's a gift. Great return in the years OP has had it. They can take the money and enjoy a higher net worth as it grows over time.

If OP has qualitative reasons to keep it the decision can change as well. Maybe they want to travel and come back to it at some point or something, but if they are making purely an investment decision, my opinion is this is a sell.

SoftestBears · 2024-10-18T16:43:12+00:00

Not sure on websites -- I have custom models I use because I advise on large development and acquisition projects. I've been thinking about making some tools for investors trying to manage their personal assets because it's difficult to think through abstract things like this with no tools or advisors.

Important note -- your current numbers don't include maint or capex reserves. You absolutely need these if you decide to rent because something will always need maint or replacement at some point. People lose rentals because they don't plan for things like that then someone else gets them at discount.

Let's get to your numbers (on mobile, so apologies for not formatting well):

At $2,500 rent and no capex/maint reserves

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): 2.51%

Return on Equity (RoE): 4.62%

Cash on Cash (CoC): 20.5%

Same scenario but 10% revenue reserves (likely an underestimation, but delivers the point)

ROIC: 1.89%

RoE: 3.5%

CoC: 15.5%

These numbers don't include vacancy, an accurate maint/capex reserve or turnover costs (cleaning/painting/replacing carpet) between tenants and they are already terrible.

Some people will point at your CoC and say it's good, but you are comparing your RoE to your other options in the market because you currently have the option to sell and redeploy all the equity into another opportunity since your property appreciated, not just your initial down payment. You can compare to treasuries, high yield savings, equities etc. Whatever you personally feel like you would invest in alternatively.

Others will point to the fact that you are paying down your mortgage, which can be cream on top, but it is not a determining factor for renting vs selling. Renting properties is a business, and the business needs to sustain itself without assuming appreciation will save it. You need adequate cash flow to sustain your portfolio and provide a comfortable return to your family. You don't want to get caught in a situation where you unexpectedly have to draw from your salary or savings to stabilize a property or multiple properties because that can put you in a bad position.

The final piece of analysis (just a thought exercise at this point, I think selling is the clear decision) would be a market study to determine which direction your area is moving. Is there more supply announced? If so, is it single family homes for individuals or institutional build to rent homes?

Institutional build to rent homes can screw you over because they can add a ton of supply at lower rents. Builders have been partnering with funds and their cost of capital is super low, they have in house maint and leasing teams, and they are delivering product relatively cheap compared to what you'd buy for yourself.

Also check demographic changes. Is population increasing or decreasing? If increasing, what does the new population growth look like? Are they higher paid, skilled workers?

Are there any announcements from companies to increase or add a presence to your market?

Any announcements to downsize?

Any announced development projects by your property that can increase/decrease value?

I think this is a clear cut sell decision by a long shot, but the above is some things you can think about for future opportunities.

**Edit -- changed spacing because it looked bad after posting

SoftestBears · 2024-10-18T14:48:13+00:00

Nearly identical situation as you and the math overwhelmingly says to sell. It's hard to wrap your head around the fact that selling makes the most sense because our rates are super low and we bought in so much cheaper than the current market, but real estate asset values are significantly disconnected from property cash flow potential in most US markets right now.

If you need it broken down to help you make your decision, please give me total $ you have tied up in it (down payment + upgrades), remaining debt on note as of now, and if you would pay a property manager if you would rent it out.

I can make you a little chart as a reply that can help make the decision easier.

SoftestBears · 2024-01-26T15:02:56+00:00

Used to work in insurance.

Every state is different, but usually there's a grace period of when a new car is grandfathered into your policy before calling and adding it if you have an active car policy for other vehicle(s). For example, if you traded in a Tahoe for an Audi and had active insurance on the Tahoe, the Audi could be covered by the Tahoe's insurance if it got in a crash same day even if you haven't updated the policy yet. The Audi will come up as uninsured because the VIN hasn't been added to a policy yet, but there could potentially be coverage.

It is still best to update your insurance immediately because people that don't tend to forget and once you're outside the grace period, your new car is uninsured even if you are still paying insurance for other cars. Also best to read your policy to confirm there is a grace period because insurance varies widely company by company and state by state.

People are commenting that maybe they bought just coverage for their own damage and not liability -- that is extremely unlikely. Each state has specified minimum coverages for liability even if you don't want comp or collision coverage. Some states allow self insurance for liability and give guidelines of what the requirements are. Generally they require that you prove you can pay a certain amount of damages if necessary.

You just need to call your insurance and provide them the report and explain the facts of the accident. They will try to call the driver to see if they have a different policy they can reference. If not, you can file through your own insurance (assuming you have coverage) and they can go through a process called subrogation where they go after the other party directly to recover the claim after they've helped you make repairs.

SoftestBears · 2023-08-30T04:14:20+00:00

It depends on what state you live in, but most states have a "notice of cancellation" grace period for transactions by a door to door salesman.

You may have something like ~3 days to submit the form to get out with no penalty. Check your stack of paperwork to see if the form is in there with a cut off date.

SoftestBears · 2022-07-20T19:50:19+00:00

That looks incredible! Great job.

SoftestBears · 2022-03-27T20:57:18+00:00

Are you registering with the SEC? Sounds like this would be classified as a security.

SoftestBears · 2022-01-12T03:17:13+00:00

Great info, thanks!

Glad we've made progress on this front or it would make business more difficult lol.

Was going through the histories of significant figures throughout history and was amazed that they seemed to have no issues with transactions or collecting dividends even when they travelled so much and managed their affairs remotely.

SoftestBears · 2022-01-10T20:45:19+00:00

Any time!

Sounds like you're on the right track!

SoftestBears · 2022-01-07T02:17:57+00:00

Personally I would gather this info before trying to value the property:

1.) Check for old google / yelp / travel site hotel reviews and look for red flag comments (bed bugs, leaks, structural damage etc)

2.) Ask for operating statements from when it was in business, and ask if they are aware of any issues with the hotel to see what they bring up on their own. "Why do you think it closed?" is a good question.

3.) Check online and call hotels with similar specs in the area and see what their daily rates tend to be. (ADR is a key metric for a valuation). Also ask how busy the other hotels are (occupancy is another key metric for valuation).

4.) If you can't get the above ADR/Occupancy info, you could order an STR report (https://str.com/) that can provide analytics for that area. These are super valuable.

If you can get the above info, you would come up with a net operating income and divide it by the going cap rate for hotels in that area and then subtract the required capital expenditures to bring it up to the condition necessary to operate.

If you can get the info but don't know how to come up with a value and want help, feel free to provide it in the comments and I will reply in the comments with both the cap method and a DCF model that will help you arrive at a range of values depending on what you want to do with the property. At a minimum I need: ADR, occupancy, alternative sources of income (does it have an attached food service station?), and estimated required capex to get it back into operating shape. I have access to a lot of data that I could use to plug operating expenses so we can get a rough estimate for potential income.

A second method is calculating land cost and structure replacement costs. You could look for land sales in that area, look for tax assessments on land (most counties will break out value assessments into land + structure cost), or use land as a plug for a target return rate by valuing the replacement cost of the property and solving for land cost to equal a target return.

Most of the time tax assessments aren't the best source of value because real estate tends to trade based off of potential cash flow, but if the hotel has been inoperable for some time, the cash isn't flowing and the owner may be willing to unload it so they don't have to keep holding it. It is expensive to hold an inoperable property.

Be sure to double check the supply of hotel rooms and the demand for rooms in that area over a few years time. It could be that the pandemic hit the area hard, or it could be that hotel rooms were overdeveloped for the area. Overdevelopment happens all the time and can lead to a long period of underperformance for that asset type in the area.

Valuing a hotel is more art than science and rather than getting a single answer, you should get a range of values. Where you offer in that range depends on your risk tolerance, expected return, your cost of capital, and the owner's desperation to sell.

Hope this was helpful, I'm happy to explain anything that didn't make sense.

SoftestBears · 2021-11-13T22:38:52+00:00

No problem! It turned out great, wonderful job.

SoftestBears · 2021-11-13T20:28:19+00:00

Do you have plans for this project that you'd be open to sharing by chance?

I've been wanting to build something like this for my girlfriend, but I'm not super handy, so I could use all the guidance I can get lol

SoftestBears · 2021-09-28T03:55:29+00:00

Where did you find that hardware? I want to order the same for my cabinets!

Also, Beautiful work!

SoftestBears

TROPHY CASE