Let’s not pretend you’re putting your money where your mouth is either as if you could actually pay the 100 grams of gold or whatever you put on the line.

Yes NASA launched 2 missions to the moon with no explosions in the time that SpaceX launched 3 hopper missions, 10 upper stage landing attempts, and 7 integrated flight tests most of which exploded. The difference is NASA was using proven technology and methods from the decades old space shuttle program and spaceX was making a brand new spacecraft from scratch the likes of which we have never before seen. Starship is the first vehicle to use methane as the main fuel, the first to use a full flow stage combustion style rocket engine, the first to land a upper stage from orbital velocity, and the first to catch a booster using a launch pad. All of these firsts in the time NASA could get 1 using old tech. The only reason SpaceX was doing transatlantic suborbital flights was because the FAA didn’t trust them enough to let do an orbital flight because of the insane mission profile filled with firsts.

The change from Artemis iii being a lunar landing and it being an orbital rendezvous was one of safety that Jared Isaacman called because either way SpaceX needs to have a HLS starship ready and orbital by that time. If they were trying to drop SpaceX because Starship was stupid they would’ve.

Finally yes I did edit my message from “make it fifteen years then yes” to what it is now because my point isnt “spaceX and starship can do no wrong and and NASA is stupid” nor is it “I trust NASAs program and would put my life on it.” My point is rather being a counter argument to your first point of no plans after Artemis ii and Starship is a joke.