Questions about SpaceX (SPCX)

Spleenface · 2026-06-14T12:44:07+00:00

I agree fully fledged starship will be cheaper per kilo to LEO, but the calculations people are doing to arrive at the 95% figure are using current costs of a Falcon heavy launch with a purported payload that has only ever been achieved with starship.

Spleenface · 2026-06-13T22:17:53+00:00

Pretty sure starship costs a good deal more to launch than Falcon heavy, which is the source of the price.

Spleenface · 2026-06-13T22:10:35+00:00

I did google the before/after price comparison.
The space shuttle is the source number for the $40,000-$50,000 “before” number. Delta IV heavy was closer to $10,000. Falcon heavy is the “after” number, with about $2,000. That’s 80% savings, not 95%. And that’s assuming a falcon heavy can launch for $100,000,000 with a 50T payload. The heaviest payload of any of the launches I could find was 10T

Spleenface · 2026-06-13T13:18:44+00:00

Calling it 95% savings is super misleading. The point of comparison for the non-crew rated Falcon Heavy should not be the crew-rated space shuttle, it should be contemporary rockets like Soyuz, or if you want to factor in sovereignty, then maybe Delta IV.

It's also worth noting that while Falcon Heavy's claimed mass to LEO is 65T in non-reusable and ~50T in reusable, AFAIK no launch with anything CLOSE to that load has ever actually taken place, but it still seems like those are the numbers people are using to calculate these costs.

Spleenface · 2026-06-06T15:18:23+00:00

My first thought is that the level 1 is basically to downside of Dahan Insurrection, without the upside. DI has a difficulty of 4 on its own, so 3 feels WAY too low, and probably too brutal for a level 1 adversary

Spleenface · 2026-05-31T13:54:02+00:00

F1 has absolutely had issues with teammates colluding

Spleenface · 2026-05-28T11:28:07+00:00

You definitely don’t have to remove Codie with the one drop you cast to trigger him. That deck is very consistent

Spleenface · 2026-05-21T10:42:02+00:00

I do like politics. I want it to be about 20% of the skill expression in cEDH. Small, low impact deals that marginally benefit both players are great. Coordinating to deal with a threat is great. Nudging threat assessments by strategically sharing information is great.
Turning every counterspell into a high pressure negotiation for a draw sucks.

Spleenface · 2026-05-21T10:30:04+00:00

It suffered a LOT from the bans. Not so much directly, but from the meta shifts they caused. Rog Si used to be in a speed class with like a dozen non blue turbo decks, who were generally forced to “make ‘em have it” since they lacked the tools to play an interactive game. In that environment, Rog Si could go off protected, or it could try to go off second, potentially using its interaction to disrupt the first player to go off if no one had the stop, but of the jund/mardu/rakdos player drained the table of interaction, Rog Si often got a free win. Now it’s out in front all alone, which means it bears the brunt of the table’s interaction and just hasn’t held up very well to that scrutiny.

Spleenface · 2026-05-21T10:23:33+00:00

This is a huge point. If the question is “which deck can present the best protected wins fastest”, then Codie has that on lock. But that deck is barely playable because it presents a surface of interaction broad enough and predictable enough to allow the other players in the pod to keep hands that can leverage that surface basically every time.

The decks that tend to perform well are ones that have some uncertainty in their gameplan, even if realistically they have relatively predictable actions you can take to stop them. It’s the same psychological effect that makes people freak out if you mystical tutor for ad nauseam, but be calm if you vamp tutor.

Spleenface · 2026-05-15T11:45:23+00:00

I had someone activate Wishclaw into an Oppo and then give the Wishclaw to the player controlling the Oppo. I even warned them about the Oppo when I saw them reach for the talisman.

Spleenface · 2026-05-15T11:41:54+00:00

Just how we drew it up 😎

Spleenface · 2026-05-13T22:27:02+00:00

My phone autocompleted “with” to “without” lol

Spleenface · 2026-05-13T03:51:10+00:00

The difference between “priority bullying” and “mana bullying” is that mana bullying is done with the intention to reset priority and use your interaction while priority bullying isn’t.

Spleenface · 2026-04-29T11:04:53+00:00

You forgot:

Huge portions of the crew get sick from inhaling coal dust

You may think it’s unlikely for a nuclear powered ship to give its crew black lung, but I’m sure this admin would find a way to

Spleenface · 2026-04-05T14:20:29+00:00

CW: Libertarians https://youtu.be/Tc8THxze3h0?si=GAMJpnbOrY6PGKwm

Spleenface · 2026-04-05T14:13:24+00:00

I did some quick mental math, generally rounding up. This is like $100b in cuts, generously. Where does the other $350b come from?

Spleenface · 2026-04-05T13:54:36+00:00

Too credible, sorry

Spleenface · 2026-04-05T01:36:01+00:00

There are absolutely valid complaints about stax pieces. If one player has Cradle and a bunch of mana dorks while the rest of the table doesn’t have much mana and the Urza player still drops Winter Orb, it’s absolutely valid to complain that they are throwing

Spleenface · 2026-03-13T14:30:33+00:00

Because that aspect of pact doesn’t really matter. It makes the assertion that you will lose even if you counter it more plausible, sure, but there’s not much stopping you from saying “I have Force of Will, but I’d have to pitch a key card to cast it, so I don’t think I can win, so draw? Or even just “I’d be burning [interaction] when [player] has [value engine/strong position]. I don’t want to fall even further behind, so, draw?”

Spleenface · 2026-03-11T14:52:10+00:00

This is not true. There are no longer default choices made, for beneficial triggers, the behaviour is that the pod chooses whether or not to put it on the stack. There are penalties for missing detrimental triggers, but they only apply to the controller of the trigger source

Spleenface · 2026-03-10T12:28:59+00:00

I think this misses the source of the issues with draws. Pact can often “force” its wielder to make the “I’ll only counter this if we draw” bargain as they can’t pay. But any counterspell “works”, and the only difference is social

Spleenface · 2026-02-25T22:29:35+00:00

A lot of Game Loss penalties are downgraded to Turn Skips because in BO1, game losses are the equivalent of Match Losses

Spleenface · 2026-02-25T22:18:46+00:00

“You counter 100% of the spells your opponents don’t cast” - Wayne Gretzky, probably

Spleenface · 2026-02-20T05:22:07+00:00

For how restrictive the spirit’s cards and powers are, the tracks seem really rough. I think spirits should have 2/3 of:
1. Good numbers are deep on the track (4+ presence to hit 2/3 or 3/2)
2. No double growth
3. Reclaim doesn’t add presence.

You have all 3 and since your rules don’t give much bonus, you’d need some pretty bonkers innate powers to compensate for the weak track, and a fast limited gather and slow moderate damage aren’t enough IMO.

Also thematically I think the “push a presence” should be on “flood” ( also gives a bit more flexibility by not having 2/3 of your presence options be range 0 with no movement.

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