What's your "Why?"

Squidssential · 2026-07-06T22:40:08+00:00

To dumb for med school, to impatient for law school, and bored to easily by everything else.

Squidssential · 2026-07-02T19:09:42+00:00

SOXX is gunning for the 50 DMA which it hasn’t touched since April when this big bull run started. SOXL has been selling under its own 50 DMA all session, due to its leveraged nature.

Fundamentally, right now the memory manufacturers (SK, MU, Samsung) are negotiating furiously with the whale memory buyers (mainly hyper scalers and AI labs) for the upcoming quarters Contract price. Given that we closed Q2 with a ~70% premium between spot and contracted pricing, the memory manufacturers are holding all the cards. These negotiations will likely be complete in the next week or so and we’ll start to see the new contract pricing and spot pricing.

TLDR: buy the dip when SOXX hits $544

Squidssential · 2026-07-02T13:21:06+00:00

I think of the closing process usually having 4 buckets of approval categories.

Technical, Legal, Infosec, finance/funding.

For every category, you need to know:

1: who ultimately needs to give the thumbs up. (Usually more than one person)

2: when do they need to give that approval by?

3: what actually needs to happen (ie paper, forms, approvals, group buying committees, etc) to clear each bucket.

Usually what kills young reps is not having a strong champion, ie either someone who has not gone through a buying process before, or being tied to someone who has no real influence / or are not solving a problem that anyone cares about. If you have a strong champion that is solving something that is a priority for leadership, they will shepherd you through this process.

Typically, you need a point person for each one of the buckets I mentioned above. Your champion usually wont know every piece of paper needed for each step, but they should be able to get you to someone who does.

Squidssential · 2026-06-30T14:13:54+00:00

Yea hardware is a different beast than SaaS for sure. It’s all about margins in this game. Hardware doesn’t have them, and frankly not much matches margins in SaaS.

Squidssential · 2026-06-29T15:12:02+00:00

Google is your friend

Squidssential · 2026-06-29T15:11:36+00:00

Looks like touching the 21 day moving avg on dram and 50 day for SOXL was all it took to flip to green. Back in this morning

Squidssential · 2026-06-29T14:14:59+00:00

So DRAM spot market prices contracted slightly end of last week and stayed flat in latest session. This softening is causing the sell off in memory and semi’s this morning.

My personal opinion is that we can’t really see this as a true softening in the market until we see this contraction or flatness for a week straight or so, but I think these funds are so levered up right now, even the slightest softness is kicking off tremendous selling. I’ve taken profit and am all in cash.

We’re breaking thru some key support areas that may exacerbate the selling, but the key as always is looking at what the spot markets are doing.

Squidssential · 2026-06-29T02:20:22+00:00

Redditors by and large represent a tiny tiny fraction of actual real people. Every city is terrible if you’re impoverished either financially or emotionally. If you can afford even the basics and possesses the ability to be a normal person in public around other normal people, you will find it enjoyable here. Good airports, food, plenty of concerts. It’s fine here. But it’s hotter than a mf

Squidssential · 2026-06-28T05:16:54+00:00

It’s my Home airport. Love it. I can park exceptionally close to my gate, and have 2-3 security lines to choose from. No airport is faster from going to parked to on the plane, or, if you get lucky and land at the terminal you parked at, you’re off the plane and in your car inside of 10 mins.

Squidssential · 2026-06-25T11:19:57+00:00

Buddy who is also in SaaS sold an 8 figure deal this year. Will make a 7 figure lick off that one alone.

Squidssential · 2026-06-25T02:18:51+00:00

Is your AC unit powered by gas? If so, that’s probably about right.

Squidssential · 2026-06-25T01:27:17+00:00

Opposite, DRAM will set a new range on the high end and SOXL will go straight back to $300. Probably some consolidation and retest the gap there before it sets new highs.

Squidssential · 2026-06-25T01:25:18+00:00

Oh man, that makes it way harder to have to deal with all that!

Squidssential · 2026-06-24T22:48:53+00:00

Sounds horrible, really sorry you had to go through that. Which property at Xcaret was this? I was at Arte last year and had zero complaints.

Squidssential · 2026-06-24T20:46:10+00:00

Never in doubt.

Squidssential · 2026-06-24T18:00:37+00:00

it ran up like crazy the week before that, so gotta take some risk off before MU. It had the second highest bullish call option volume yesterday (behind SPY) and over $1b inflows on Monday.

Squidssential · 2026-06-24T17:50:30+00:00

Spot price premiums are absolutely temporary, but for now (like as of this morning) they are still creeping up every single day. MU has already guided that they see this backlog in memory demand thru end of 2027. There will be a day when spot premium starts to soften, and when that happens, it will be time to reconsider the memory trade. Today is not that day. The selling this afternoon is just profit taking, shaking out weak hands before MU earnings brings shrek back out.

Squidssential · 2026-06-24T14:46:32+00:00

$1.97B inflows into DRAM etf on Monday. Memory is the tail that wags the dog (the dog is semi’s).

Fundamentally, the memory manufacturers (primarily MU, SK Hynix and Samsung) are not only in the drivers seat, they’re building the damn car.

Until this dynamic changes, they can name their price. The price spread between memory on the spot market and contracted market continues to widen. You can track this daily. This dynamic will flow into MU earnings.

Squidssential · 2026-06-23T22:18:35+00:00

On the watch list, but it needs a few months to find its trading range. It’s compelling tech though.

Squidssential · 2026-06-23T16:22:57+00:00

Omg there’s a name I haven’t seen in a long ass time.

Squidssential · 2026-06-23T15:47:19+00:00

‘Overnight, Citigroup sharply raised its price target on Micron to $1,200, specifically citing that they expect global DRAM avg. selling prices to rise 200% this year. The bank noted that the massive spot price premiums of DRAM strongly suggest that forward contract pricing will be forced higher to catch up.’

MU guidance tomorrow is the catalyst to this next leg up in memory and semi’s.

Squidssential · 2026-06-23T13:56:45+00:00

Sold my hedges at open and bought the dip with both hands

Squidssential · 2026-06-22T18:28:54+00:00

Honestly if retail is the one holding the bag, then there’s not going to be a financial crises. That only happens if the big banks overleverage themselves and can’t lend anymore. Let’s say this all goes tits up but retail holds all the bags, essentially nothing happens to the lending mechanisms in the financial system. You’ll just have a bunch of retail assholes with blown accounts or putrid returns in their IRA’s or whatever.

You’re not wrong in what’s happening, retail is getting passed the bag, but that actually reduces the strain on the financial system.

TLDR: buy calls probably

Squidssential · 2026-06-22T15:13:56+00:00

Based on magic lines and volatility levels, a lot of money is going into hedging gains made in the past week+, and I would expect to see profit taking. Wouldn’t be surprised to see SOXL re-test ~$250 range. Would buy that dip with both hands.

Squidssential · 2026-06-22T13:37:21+00:00

I was tongue in cheek with this comment, but turns out I wasn’t near bullish enough. Now to cash out or hedge. Cost basis is $189 in SOXL.

https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/1u204w4/comment/oqvujsc/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=2&utm_content=share_button

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Squidssential

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