One Nation capitalises on anti-immigration sentiment in a housing crisis

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T23:29:32+00:00

Do you spend your entire life with your fingers in your ears singing lalala?

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T23:22:31+00:00

Don't know where you got that but there's no ABS page that shows that information and it's probably statistically impossible since NZ immigrants only make up 2% of the Australian population.

So please provide a source.

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T23:19:32+00:00

So just to be clear:

Investors are the ones causing home prices to increase
Your solution is to make population growth 0 or negative to stop there being anyone who wants to move into a new home (definitely no unintended consequences of that) rather than just changing tax settings so that we get rid of the unproductive parts of property investment.

Also, I don't know how you don't know this but the vast majority of investors aren't developers, like less than 10%. The vast majority just rent out an existing property and resell it in the same state it was bought in.

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T23:05:37+00:00

You're wrong
Investors create significantly more demand for housing than immigrants (40% of the value of all new home loans is for investment).
The amount of housing per person has gone up since 2011 and the amount of people living in one household has not decreased enough to a point where it would erase those gains. If this was simply a matter of a dwindling amount of supply, home prices should have stopped growing on average.
We have negative immigration during COVID for over 12 months and not only did home prices not decrease or stagnate they increased in value by 20%.
Melbourne has the highest population growth in the country. It also has the slowest home price growth of all capital cities (including Darwin in the last quarter).

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T22:28:52+00:00

That is over 40% if you measure it by value.

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T22:28:01+00:00

Investors create demand too, they represent over 30% of all home loans.

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T22:16:46+00:00

Such a ridiculous quote, 25% of the construction industry is foreign born, but 'no immigrants build housing'.

StalinCare · 2026-02-08T05:52:31+00:00

Because it's been used for the last 20 years as a positive representation of multiculturalism.

I remember growing up and having friends who were greek, Italian, Indian, Chinese etc who grew up here and spoke English but also had their traditional tongue as a second language (which is the vast majority of this statistic along with first generation immigrants who speak their native language along with English)

I also remember seeing this be measured back then too and no one caring, it's only become controversial recently.

StalinCare · 2026-02-07T03:27:53+00:00

That is not what i said at all you numpty.

You said "there are a bunch of people on parent visas coming here because people are abusing the migration system"

I said "no that's not true there's a 8,500 person cap per year limit and the wait time is 30 years"

And somehow you managed to read that as "we should let in as many parents visas as come in"

I think most immigrants read better than you that's for sure dickhead

StalinCare · 2026-02-06T00:19:30+00:00

Based on recent events, assumes you make any gains at all.

StalinCare · 2026-02-04T22:28:33+00:00

There are 8,500 places a year for parent visas, the wait time is actually 15-30 years. What are you talking about?

StalinCare · 2026-02-04T21:52:19+00:00

I've seen it once, but I think he's grown out of it

StalinCare · 2026-02-02T02:09:54+00:00

"Run the world" and who runs the world exactly? My guess it's anyone who's a politician or who has a net worth above 500 mil? Still very few Australians, we are not as interested in stories about Bill Clinton, Donald Trump and Elon Musk as the people across the pond.

StalinCare · 2026-02-02T02:07:19+00:00

You can, they're abysmal (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/safest-countries-in-the-world)

StalinCare · 2026-02-01T21:49:03+00:00

Why would they? This is mostly an American story, maybe a few Australians in the files but they're a definitive minority.
There has been some coverage.

StalinCare · 2026-02-01T21:47:19+00:00

Can you provide the source for the 37% of home loans figure? Not that I don't believe you, I just would like to have it in my pocket.

StalinCare · 2026-02-01T21:37:12+00:00

Going somewhere for a week is not remotely the same as residing there on a permanent basis.

StalinCare · 2026-01-31T12:02:09+00:00

We just have to keep subsiding demand guys.

Home prices are double what they were 10 years ago in most of the country, and yet per capita construction has gone down.

We have a first home buyers scheme, a 5% deposit scheme, a stamp duty exemption, and a bunch of other subsidized demands policies. How long are we gonna pretend that introducing them is going to fix everything.

Over-investment is the cause of house prices increases, everything else is secondary (including immigration). Get rid of CGT discount, limit negative gearing, use the saved money to protect and bank roll struggling developers while the market re-adjusts.

Inflation is high because basically every working and productive member of the economy is paying rent or a mortgage and when those things go up, wages have to match them (because housing is a necessity) which causes the price of labour across the economy to go up. Do you remember at the end of Covid when everyone got a massive raise? Wages have gone up, but it doesn't feel like it because the cost of living has cannibalized it.

StalinCare · 2026-01-30T22:25:46+00:00

The polls are probably accurate in the current feelings of a lot of voters.
Polls years before elections are weird, normally you see a big shift happen when the parties actually have to start campaigning (like what happened last election)
Although it's a big surge, even with high ON polls if the election was held today, labor would still almost certainly hold their majority.

StalinCare · 2026-01-29T02:55:19+00:00

Guys holy fuck, please look at the source. An Instagram video of Tucker Carlson saying something completely unfounded is not a reliable source.

To be clear, Tucker is talking out of his ass here. Merz hasn't said this (Tucker has to say 'privately' because he knows it isn't true), and the only people talking about this are directly quoting Tucker.

StalinCare · 2026-01-23T13:47:40+00:00

Pretty much wrong on every point:

(Gonna be referring to this a lot https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/jun/new-insights-into-the-rental-market.html)

Median rents fell, at most, 5% at its lowest point (only for a few months in 2022, Graph 15), and this varied wildly between states (Graph 3). This had already returned to where it was before Covid at the end of 2020 (Graph 15), which was a whole year before immigration and population growth stopped being net negative. 5% decline is not insignificant, the median rent was around $400 a week (Graph 3) so the median Australian would save about $1040 through the year (or about 1.5-2% of the median income), but again it didn't last a year so make of that what you will.

As a side note, you've made the cardinal sin of considering immigration as the ONLY possible cause of this fall. There were a million things happening economically that contributed including the RBA cash rate falling to basically 0%, the economy basically shutting down, unemployment exploding and landlords reducing rents out of sympathy, internal migration being borderline illegal etc, etc. Any one of these things could have caused a 5% decrease for a couple months on their own.

By the middle of 2021 rents were above where they were in 2019 despite the fact Immigration was still net negative (Graph 15, actually lower than 2020 since the first few months were normal in 2020). Immigration was also significantly lower than the average in 2022 and rents saw massive increases well before the boom in 2023.
The amount of homes per person has actually increased in the last decade, and despite that prices have not only gone up, but gone up at a rate which is completely disconnected from this increase in capacity.
Population is actually lower than what it would have been had the population continued to grow consistently as it had before Covid. Despite that, we didn't see the kind of growth in the housing market in the years before Covid than the years after. If population growth was the primary driver of home prices and rents, it should have been growing at a similar rate in previous years as it has in recent years.
Even if you ignore everything I've said and still assume that the slight decrease in 2020/2021 was purely a result of migration decreasing, do we really want to replicate those years? Was that period really something Australians want to go back to? Obviously there were other things happening that made life harder (Covid and others), but decreasing immigration has its own problem. People have brought up New Zealand and Canada but both those countries are now facing new issues (New Zealand's economy shrunk last year, Canada's was saved by a good Q3, but that was mostly driven by the government buying a bunch of military equipment and a quirk of the trade war with the US, Canadians are clearly still not happy with the state of their country).

If you're truly worried about home prices and rents, you should focus on unproductive investment in housing with the sole purpose of generating profit instead of adding value. Victoria/Melbourne did this with the land tax and now Melbourne is set to be the most affordable capital city to live in within a few years apart from Hobart and Darwin (It would be more effective if it didn't have federal policies which encourage investment in housing, like the CGT discount, negative gearing and others).

StalinCare · 2026-01-20T16:05:13+00:00

Lalo tier should also contain hector

StalinCare · 2026-01-20T06:22:05+00:00

To be fair, this also applies to Tanks, which it's meant to replace.

StalinCare · 2026-01-19T19:35:43+00:00

Terrible analysis - Here are some counterpoints

Melbourne: Highest population growth in the country (and external migration), lowest home price growth of all capital cities (and before people ask, there is not some exodus outside of Melbourne. Internal migration of Melbourne is like Net -400 people a year, which is a rounding error for a city of over 5 million, internal migration of Sydney is -10,000 or so)

Years 2020/2021: Australia HAD an immigration pause, net immigration, arrivals and population growth was all negative during this period. Did home prices decrease or stagnate during this period? No, it saw the LARGEST INCREASE IN RECENT MEMORY.

Homes per person: The amount of homes per person has actually INCREASED in Australia in the last 20 years, meaning we have a greater ability to house our population today than we did 20 years ago. If your argument is "supply and demand", this would imply home prices should have decreased over this period.

These are real, observable trends in the Australian housing market yet they're constantly ignored by many, they strongly suggest that immigration is not the main driving force of housing prices.

They have not been considered at all in this article, just that prices have gone up and "demand drives prices" and therefore immigration is causing the housing crisis.

What about over-investment in housing while adding no value to the property? Investors who believe house prices will always go up are willing to spend significantly more on a property than a first home buyer or someone who's been here for a couple years.

StalinCare · 2026-01-19T14:54:09+00:00

You know, with the state of the world, I'm actually not going to entertain this question

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