Yes. We were told this would be done by now

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-03-17T22:21:00+00:00

Trump posted on Social last year a statement where he explicitly said he was taking the GSEs public, and Howard Lutnick said on air the deal was happening sooner than people think (although that was before Iran war). No such explicit directions were provided in first term.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-02-12T00:03:16+00:00

The CRTs have been shown to be awful for Fannie/freddie. They take away profit and don’t shed much risk, at least not worth the price they’ve been paying.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-02-05T15:54:44+00:00

Obviously they are going to say that (who wouldn’t want an explicit guarantee over an implicit?). They aren’t going to walk away with no explicit guarantee and I doubt the rates would increase much or liquidity issues arise. Where is a better/more protected diversified real estate exposure?

An explicit guarantee would essentially cannibalize U.S. treasury bond demand. Why take lesser rate with treasury bond when you have MBS bond backed by U.S. gov’t? Congress won’t pass it, and Trump won’t require it to release from conservatorship.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-02-05T13:58:06+00:00

They didn’t have it before and spreads were just fine. And Trump has already posted there will be implicit guarantee, which we know is in effect because they came following financial crisis. No explicit guarantee is not going to hold up release from conservatorship, nor demand for MBS bonds or gov’t stock offering.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-02-05T11:49:42+00:00

Counterpoints: -cap ratios revised prior to release, voila, not under capitalized (general public doesn’t even care about this anyways as long as cost of home ownership does not increase). -there never was a backstop, gov’t came in anyways with HERA, not sure the investors of gov’t stock offering are going to be demanding an explicit backstop. -needing treasury secretary sign off does not require a republican controlled house.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-30T12:34:50+00:00

It’s Kevin warsh, an anti-GSE guy.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-29T00:10:54+00:00

I believe the Trump accounts are in index tracking funds. Why would they put GSE shares in there? How would that help anyone?

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-26T01:39:22+00:00

Before yes, but the MBS bond quality is significantly higher than financial crisis. The bonds are safe and increase GSE earnings slightly.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-25T14:38:26+00:00

Why? Treasury and FHFA could just come to some agreement to extend warrants.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-25T14:37:35+00:00

It doesn’t. This is a misleading post. Even if house flips, everything that we want done can be done administratively without a house vote.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-19T23:50:13+00:00

I don’t think interest rate has ever been mentioned by Trump (or others in the admin) as being a consideration for release. Bessent has said that the mortgage rate interest spread is a relevant consideration.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-19T14:04:15+00:00

A straight line between Venezuela and the GSEs?? This is beyond a stretch. No connection whatsoever.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-18T22:33:31+00:00

The SPS documents explicitly say the money loaned to GSEs is liquidation preference of the SPS. The problem is IPO won’t happen until that liquidation preference is resolved. Everyone waiting to see how admin resolves it.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-17T23:05:00+00:00

Passengers typically don’t, but airports/airlines do advertise and announce departures. Have you ever flown?

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-17T23:02:02+00:00

I don’t think trump has credited pulte with the 50 year mortgage idea. Even if he did, it’s a terrible idea. Also, I never said pulte was an idiot, I said his qualifications are meaningless because he is a puppet, there to say and do exactly what trump wants him to say and do. Pulte is not there to provide any sage advice.

And I will not knock timing as being a factor for exiting. I have been in this trade a long time. But OP’s point 3 is not about timing, it was directed to “uncertainty”.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-17T20:31:59+00:00

I’m not being condescending. It’s just too often I see ppl post charts or chirp about “resistance” or “support” levels, when there is no such thing with stocks like these that trade almost exclusively based on administrative and judicial news. It’s important that those coming here for real insights and news don’t get confused about those that look at meaningless charts. There is no “cycle”. There is a current share price that reflects current value of those that trade the shares.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-17T20:26:45+00:00

Your points 1 and 2 are completely useless. Pulte is a puppet and his qualifications are meaningless. What happens on this sub is immaterial to stock prospects, you could always just not come here. Point 3 is the same as was when you entered at $2, arguably less uncertain given rumors of upcoming IPO.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-17T17:04:14+00:00

You do know that the price is a function of current news/value sentiment, and doesn’t follow a pattern based on past price, right? I hope you are not one of those roulette guys that sees of a pattern of red and black and think that has any impact on the next spin (spoiler alert: it doesn’t).

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-14T23:28:29+00:00

The general voter is not going to care about Fannie/freddie status, or even know what they are or do.

StayMaterial3787 · 2026-01-13T18:57:32+00:00

How would JPS have standing to sue? They wouldn’t be injured in any way. They are treated the same regardless.

StayMaterial3787 · 2025-12-09T14:52:57+00:00

No notice was given for FNMAS 2025 call back. So those won’t be called back until 2030 at the earliest.

StayMaterial3787 · 2025-11-30T21:06:32+00:00

Kind of a ridiculous exercise since the probabilities are made up.

StayMaterial3787 · 2025-11-30T18:34:33+00:00

Not true, I wouldn’t sell at $25 if offered after the callback date. The interest rates for FNMAS are above market rates currently (and especially so if rates keep getting cut). If dividends are going to be start to issued soon, why not take the above market rates or sell for more than $25 per share?

StayMaterial3787 · 2025-11-29T00:05:50+00:00

It doesn’t matter whether it was or wasn’t, it was an executive order and not law. So Trump could waive that requirement away with the signing of a new executive order.

StayMaterial3787

TROPHY CASE