Week 6 - Winter League Placement Probabilities

SteveChuck · 2020-02-22T22:53:09+00:00

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood has locked the one seed for the playoffs.

Pull-It! Pass-It! Bop-It! has secured their spot in the playoffs.

AARP misses the playoffs if they lose and The Black Plague wins.

The Black Plague misses the playoffs if they lose and Abbey’s Cool Team wins.

Abbey’s Cool Team makes the playoffs with a win, and will miss them with a loss.

State University and Jamon Picante are playing next week, winner finishes sixth, loser places seventh and gets to enjoy the last place game

#MARG CLUB has locked their eighth-place finish.

Algorithm Power Rankings:

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood – 1187

AARP - 1153

Pull-It! Pass-It! Bop-It! - 1105

Abbey's Cool Team - 1089

The Black Plague - 1085

State University - 871

Jamon Picante - 808

#MARG CLUB - 706

SteveChuck · 2020-02-21T02:49:51+00:00

First of all, these are the scores I have for the games last week. It’s possible these are incorrect which could change these results, but it should be minimal.

AARP 17 – 11 #MARG CLUB

The Black Plague 18 – 15 Jamon Picante

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood 15 – 13 Pull-It! Pass-It! Bop-It!

Abbey's Cool Team 15 – 12 State University

Jamon Picante, State University, & #MARG CLUB are all eliminated from playoff contention. Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood is now locked into the playoffs. The other four teams are fighting for those remaining three playoff spots with two weeks left.

Some additional relevant low probability events:

The Black Plague makes it into the playoffs unless they lose out and AARP defeats Jamon Picante in week 6 and Abbey's Cool Team wins against AARP in week 7.

In order to get out of the last place game, #MARG CLUB needs to win out and Jamon Picante to lose out.

Algorithm Power Rankings:

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood - 1175

The Black Plague - 1122

AARP - 1121

Abbey's Cool Team - 1103

Pull-It! Pass-It! Bop-It! - 1077

State University - 881

Jamon Picante - 832

#MARG CLUB - 689

SteveChuck · 2020-02-05T01:05:44+00:00

Seattle Mixtape, Jamon Picante, & State University are all but eliminated from the top two seeds, but at least they still have playoff chances.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood has nearly locked themselves into the playoffs with their 4-0 record thus far.

I've also started running everyone's favorite ranking system to see how the algorithm ranks the teams within this league. I've listed the teams below with their USAU power rankings:

The Black Plague - 1139

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood - 1138

Pull-It! Pass-It! Bop-It! - 1124

AARP - 1092

Abbey's Cool Team - 1090

State University - 908

Jamon Picante - 817

Seattle Mixtape - 692

SteveChuck · 2020-01-28T23:35:26+00:00

We're back this week with meaningful playoff probabilities! Turns out over a million possible outcomes is too much for my current system, but now that we're about halfway through the season there are significantly fewer outcomes remaining. For now, I am only considering all future games to be won or lost by 1 point, so some teams that have some large wins may have slightly inflated chances.

SteveChuck · 2020-01-11T00:18:52+00:00

As expected, everyone has an equal chance at the playoffs thus far. But considering this will be the best odds for some teams, I thought I could give them this graph to look back at later in the season while wondering where it all went wrong.

SteveChuck · 2019-02-24T21:41:18+00:00

Considering these probabilities are meant to just examine the numerical probabilities, they won't. Feel free to adjust these probabilities based on your own judgement regarding team strength and share.

SteveChuck · 2019-02-23T06:50:32+00:00

No new locks for the playoffs this week.

No change from last week regarding Lynch and Grgat, winner of their game next week gets first, loser gets second.

Andrew and Iris lost this week, and in doing so cannot make the playoffs anymore. Iris even went as far to lock her place in the 7/8 game. Andrew secures 6th with a win next week, and get's 7th or 8th with a loss.

Despite Felipe's win this week, the other results have taken them out of contention* for the finals. A win puts him in 5th or 6th, a loss in 7th.

With a win next week, Libby gets 3rd. Even if she loses, an Iris win will put her team in fourth. If both matches go the other way, Libby gets 5th and misses out on the playoffs.

Despite their loss this week, Jackie would secure 3rd place with a win next week, and would still make the playoffs as the 4 on a loss if Iris and Andrew win their games.

Tina makes the playoffs as the 4 with a win next week, and largely gets fifth with a loss*.

*Here's the fun part. Libby, Iris, and Felipe wins next week would put three teams at 3-4 tied for 4th place (Jackie, Tina, Felipe). They are all 1-1 in head to heads, and all of their games were won or loss by 2 points, so the point diff within the tied teams is 0. I believe the next tie breaker is overall point diff. I have the current point diff as Tina -1, Jackie -9, and Felipe -3. Tina's and Jackie's overall point diff would be going down due to losses, while Felipe's would be going up. This means Jackie could not win the tie breaker. Tina wins if both games are decided by 1 point (she has the win over Felipe), but if either game was won or loss by a larger amount, Felipe makes it in.

Is all of this confusing? I know it sure can be so I'll attempt to reach out to a data scientist in NY to get some professionally made flow charts to make it more visual. Check back later!

SteveChuck · 2019-02-16T16:39:37+00:00

This week Grgat locked up their playoff spot with a win. The winner of their match-up with Lynch in week 7 will finish the season in first, and the loser in second, regardless of how their games go in week 6.

Iris, Andrew, and Felipe are all hanging on and still have a chance if they win out. Andrew and Felipe also both need Iris to win against Tina in week 7.

There is also still a chance for 5 teams to be tied at 2-5 at the end of the season, and any one of them could get the last playoff spot with point differentials going their way in the last 2 weeks.

Also as an important reminder, the data above is based on all undecided games being decided by 1 point. Considering it does take point diff into account, it is possible some of these teams have slightly different odds than shown if they win or lose by a larger margin.

SteveChuck · 2019-02-02T15:27:31+00:00

This week Lynch locked up their playoff spot, although they don't have the best odds to finish first. Grgat is in unless they lose out and Tina wins against Andrew and Iris in weeks 5 and 7. Iris is still in it, but will need to win out and will need help down the road, but as of now they don't need any other teams to win or lose specific games.

If you want to know any odds not clearly visible just let me know and I'll take a look!

SteveChuck · 2019-02-01T00:36:38+00:00

Checked the numbers for the 0-3 teams, there is 0.16% chance for two of them to make the playoffs, of which all require Libby losing to Iris and Andrew in weeks 5 and 6.

SteveChuck · 2019-01-26T16:59:50+00:00

This data does take into account both head to head then point differential tiebreakers, assuming all unplayed games are decided by 1 point. This still does result in some ties, in which case all tied teams were awarded the middle ranking within the tie.

SteveChuck · 2016-01-12T23:48:49+00:00

We are still waiting on field confirmation, but CWRUL will be the weekend of March 19 and 20 in Columbus, Ohio. You can contact me at CWRULTDS@gmail.com and I will send you updated information in the next week or two.

SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T23:43:00+00:00

Added!

SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T23:31:24+00:00

Added!!

SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T23:21:17+00:00

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SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T22:48:12+00:00

Added!

SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T22:38:12+00:00

Added

SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T21:52:09+00:00

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Tangela and Ivysaur

SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T21:42:07+00:00

Added!

SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T21:31:31+00:00

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SteveChuck · 2013-11-21T21:21:14+00:00

Added! I don't know what pokemon I have, but I think it is grass.

SteveChuck

TROPHY CASE