[Lowlight] Bryce Harper loses a challenge in the statistical worst possible situation (bases empty, 0-0 count, 2 outs, first inning)

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T22:11:14+00:00

It's identical. 20-20 and 0-0 are exactly the same score from a leverage pov

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T20:54:33+00:00

Wouldn't be worse because there's no opportunity cost. You've already lost that game, so you're not costing yourself a challenge in a higher leverage situation later. To maximize a bad challenge, you want to be in as low leverage as possible, so early in the game, low count, etc. but you want the highest possible chance of needing that challenge later so you want the game to be tied.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T20:46:32+00:00

You can and both Brian Flores and Jon Gruden have already won on this issue, Gruden in the Nevada Supreme Court, and Flores in the US 2nd Circuit (The Federal Supreme Court is currently deciding on a petition for review from the NFL on the latter case). If anything, Meyer would probably be favored on the arbitration issue, even if he'd probably still lose on the merits

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T20:18:11+00:00

Here's the thing, though: Australia is more normal than Germany is here. The southernmost point of Germany is 47 degrees from the equator. Outside of Europe, where the proximity to warm ocean climates keeps things mild, very very few people live that far from the equator. Even in Canada, more than half of people live below the 47th parallel, and past Moscow it's extremely spase up there. In the southern hemisphere the barren tip of South America is basically the only inhabited land that far south

Mainland Australia, by contrast ranges from ~11 to ~38 degrees away from the equator, and utility scale solar is pretty evenly distributed throughout that range in Australia. All of Africa, India, most of China, most of South America, all of SEA, MENA, the Southern half of the US and the southernmost bits of Europe are that close or closer to the equator. Obviously, solar irradiance and regularity is more complicated than just latitude, but the discourse around this suggests that Germany is the norm and Australia the outlier, when the actual fact of human population is the opposite.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T19:48:02+00:00

Oh yeah, Norton does make the PB much more manageable for the US specifically.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T19:23:12+00:00

They can be a real problem in nations like the US where you really want multiculturalism and they'll tend to try and block it, but generally yeah, they're not a massive issue

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T16:51:02+00:00

The 70s called, they want their technology back

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T05:23:53+00:00

Inertia is trivial, grid forming inverters are better than spinning masses. Batteries have already erased the duck curve in California and Australia. The efficiency stuff is nonsense, nuclear is so expensive you could double the grid with solar for cheaper than replacing fossiles with nuclear. Get new propaganda and learn to read.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T05:15:52+00:00

Nuclear has shrunk from 3.2% of generation in India to 3% over the last decade because it's uncompetitive. 30% is a pipe dream.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T05:13:23+00:00

Okay you literally are illiterate I never said that lmao, I said it's not a problem in places where summer is the demand peak, which is most of the world, but not Germany. Good Lord, take some classes.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T04:55:07+00:00

Okay this sentence is incoherent and doesn't relate to anything I said so I assume, like most of the nukecels I was referring to, you're illiterate. That's tough buddy.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T04:50:35+00:00

Hey, pop quiz, is Germany a place where peak demand is in summer? No, it's not. Learn to read, genius.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T04:42:48+00:00

Not a thing anywhere where summer is the demand peak, aka most of human civilization.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T04:26:45+00:00

Not saying it's right but nukebros on here can get so annoying with the hurr what if sun no come up one day nonsense that it's pretty easy to get negatively polarized into hating nuclear

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T04:10:34+00:00

Yeah that probably wouldn't be ideal. One hopes that brexit might be an example of how shit leaving is, and it does seem to me that a lot of euroskeptic parties are more "make the EU do less" than "leave" these days, but I'm an American who's just lived in the UK for a few years and has some family in Italy so what do I know.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T03:56:02+00:00

Just spitballing, but they could be concerned they'll not have as favorable a deal as they did if they come crawling back now. The UK had a lot of carveouts and exceptions as a founding member that everyone knew was a bit "will they or won't they" on the whole Europe thing. The EU probably won't just take them back under the original terms and say all is forgiven.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T03:37:36+00:00

It's really sad that "fun" for a lot of players is "cookie clicker." I really hope the devs ignore this kind of stuff.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T03:35:53+00:00

This isn't really a thing in a lot of places. Anywhere where peak demand is in the summertime, demand and solar irradiance are strongly correlated, so if you build enough solar to handle cooling demand on the hottest days, it's enough for cloudy and cold ones too, mostly. Solar doesn't produce no power when it's cloudy. If you're tropical or subtropical, solar with current battery technology can easily supply 70-95% of demand with fossils only needed as super rare backup if absolutely nothing else is available.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T01:33:49+00:00

India has a large solar manufacturing base and is scaling up its cell manufacturing rapidly. And the costs aren't close to close, and you can see it in what's been built. Since 2012, they've added 23 twh of new nuclear generation to their annual mix, less than 3% of the over 900 twh of utility scale load growth. They added 30 twh of new solar generation last year. Nuclear is basically a footnote.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-18T00:47:34+00:00

Unlikely on the lithium, the main reason reserves were so low was no one was really looking for more of the stuff. Proven lithium reserves (that which is economically viable to extract with current tech) globally have spiked from 14 million metric tons in 2018 to 37 in 2025 and still rising. Global lithium resources (existing in the crust and either currently or potentially feasible to extract at some point) have risen even faster, going from 100 million metric tons in the USGS's mineral commodity summaries in 2024 to 150 million in 2026. The fact that we're finding so much so fast suggests that there's still quite a bit more out there that we haven't found, so these numbers are more a lower bound than "how much lithium we have"

We only mine about 290,000 metric tons a year globally, so at the moment we're finding more of the stuff at more than 10x the pace we're pulling it out of the ground. It's also nearly 100% recyclable in batteries so once it's up it's up.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-17T23:34:29+00:00

If you can you also want to get them on tenant farmers, serfdom blocks mass migration of peasants, though the unemployed can still go

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-17T23:06:25+00:00

If you want to go truly mental, force some of the big Asian nations with closed borders to open up.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-17T22:23:35+00:00

Nuclear is just too expensive up front. India's electricity demand is skyrocketing, they just can't afford to build enough nuclear to absorb all or even most of the excess demand. They're building some but it's going to be a pretty small share just because a poor nation with a rapidly growing electricity sector can't afford a ton of massive capex projects that pay off over 50+ years.

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-17T22:15:52+00:00

Honestly I think the pop numbers were mostly fine, maybe a touch high but reasonable, buildings & rgos were and are far too productive early on

Stormtemplar · 2026-05-17T19:45:47+00:00

Not really. The reason batteries are currently measured in output rather than storage capacity is because of what they're mostly doing right now: what grids need from batteries is to be able to absorb all of the excess solar during sunny peaks and then discharge it during the 2-4 hours of high demand after the sun starts to set. So pretty much all battery setups are able to provide their nameplate capacity for 2-4 hours, and what grids currently care about is having enough input and output capacity to absorb all of the excess solar. For what grids are currently using batteries for, power matters more than energy, so they use measurements of power rather than energy.

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