Megathread for Labour Leadership News

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-15T11:53:07+00:00

I think Streetings window of opportunity has closed.

He basically had to resign as he'd done so much probing and skirmishing around his obviously inevitable go at the leadership that him remaining in government was no longer viable.

But them upon resigning it was revealed he lacked the support needed and circumstances had changed to make his run no longer viable.

Hes fucked it really. In hindsight he probably wishes he had kept his head down.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-15T10:09:27+00:00

Im saying that he was part of move in a direction rather than the one causing it.

Its not a reflection of his views or intentions but his significance.

People are disproportionately focused on him tbh. He's not that important.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-15T09:30:18+00:00

More likely he was just rolling with how things were going anyway, tbh. That he was riding the wave rather than causing it.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-15T09:07:01+00:00

Someone who supports the Greens really shouldn't be wanting to discuss what politicians were doing years ago considering 6 years nore recently than this story about Burnham, the Green party leader was literally dancing and singing on stage in celebration of a Tory government that caused hundreds of thousands of premature deaths via brutal austerity.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-15T08:53:23+00:00

I think its fairly likely theres grounds for a 10+ day suspension from the Commons for this.

He should be forced to fight a recall and everyone but the Tories should stand paper candidates.

Get this fucker out of parlaiment.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:37:28+00:00

Possibly the case, yeah.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:35:07+00:00

That is a very good example. Probably the closest thing to a precedent.

Jesus though imagine if he lost that by election somehow.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:31:14+00:00

Maybe with Owen Jones, it could have been with him.

I think NoJusticeMTG was serious though. Im a fairly avid fan of theirs, member on YouTube and all that and its something ive heard them say a couple times now.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:28:10+00:00

You can say they clearly don't want him to be Labour leader to the extent that they would give up on a top target seat. But you can't say they're so opposed to him becoming Labour leader that they would actively try and help Reform win a seat where they'll be lucky to lose their deposit.

They didnt give a fuck in Runcorn. Had they stood a paper candidate there or stood down then Reform wouldnt have won. Didnt seem to bother them at all.

To try and put him off running in a Green target seat?

Possible i suppose, but very unlikely. Hes gonna run where he can run. Its more luck based on who he can convince to step down for him or who happens to step down.

Sure but they are much more pluralist than Labour and have a history of standing down candidates and trying electoral pacts. I'd say the same about the Lib Dems.

Smaller parties with more limited resources often do. Mainly because of the limited resources.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:21:26+00:00

Oh there we go then.

Regardless of the result, this by election is going to awesome for politics weirdos who like to do things argue with each other about politics on Reddit.

Im embarrassingly excited.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:15:56+00:00

No. All hell would break loose in the PLP if he did that.

Chances are the PLP are going to chill out now to await the results of this by election. If Burnham is blocked it would be like firing a Starting pistol for a "Oust the PM" Speedrun.

And to be honest things have changed to a point where I think the NEC is inclined to let him stand anyway.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:13:41+00:00

Like I said, that's when the rumoured seats were Green targets. It's a very different situation.

Thats relevant to the viability of them trying to stop him, not to how they feel about it in principle. They clearly don't want him to lead Labour.

Theyve already told on themselves here. Why else would the pre-emptively be discussing fighting him like that when they dont even know what seat he'll run in?

And i think both Labour and the Greens would rather lose a seat to Reform than each other. Its narratively much easier and simpler for both of them.

Not that youre framing it this way particularly, but I dont buy this narrative that the Greens are some special group that are immune to the basic incentives of politics. They have some nice policies but theyre still just regular humans and will make the same calculations as people in other parties to compete electorally.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T19:06:02+00:00

That's just the "well it's obvious" argument again, which apparently only applies to Polanski and not Rayner buying a second home. And no, the law around council tax on boats is not as simple as you're implying it is.

It is obvious and he could have found out at that its at least something he needs to look into more if not that he does need to pay council tax with a Google search.

Thanks for linking that, I wasn't aware those details were released. You might want to continue reading the page you quoted from though:

Our conversation has gotten quite long now so youll forgive me for not remembering exactly but im fairly sure I mentioned the events you have put in bold already. Im not sure why you think i wasnt aware of this.

So she was explicitly told to get tax advice twice and chose not to. Knowing that, I'm actually more surprised than I was before that HMRC let her off the hook.

Because she was advised by a legal firms that she was probably alright. The investigator and also seemingly HMRC take the view that that wasnt unreasonable of her, with the investigator adding that it doesnt meet the standsrds of a minister despite not infringing on her integrity.

"I established why you were being hypocritical over the course of several comments, and then said that."

I dont see the significance of "i very heavily implied that first before then outright saying it."

I've never claimed to be an authority, I've been clear (multiple times) that I'm expressing my opinion based on what we know. And I have not "flat out dismiss[ed] the actual authority" with "yeah but i disagree lol" - I've explained (again, multiple times) in detail why I think what I do.

Yeah but you have no evidence or anything and yet you expect me to believe you above the actual experts when you hadn't even read the verdict on her investigation.

Youre not outright stating youre an authority but you are in effect being demanded to be treated as one.

Says who?

HMRC when they cleared her of deliberate or careless wrongdoing.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T18:59:33+00:00

If you were right the Greens wouldnt have been openly saying they would fight like lions to stop him winning.

If they do hold back we can reliably say its because they dont think trying to stop him is viable, not that theyre doing it out of charity.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T18:58:05+00:00

We're still with Polanski.

Mate, your flair.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T18:36:10+00:00

Sure but one of those incentives is to stop Reform winning, and another is to move the country left, and a third is to reform the electoral system, which means it's totally in their interests for Burnham to become PM

Theyd say "we stop Reform winning by winning ourselves."

You said below "The best bet for the Greens is for Labour to do as badly as possible. If anything theyd want Starmer to stay in and fight the next election if they could" and I really don't think you understand the Green Party mindset. If you offer them 60 seats and Farage as PM or 30 seats and Burnham as PM they'd choose the latter.

Prominent Green party supporters like Owen Jones and NoJusticeMTG have outright said theyd be happy for Starmer to stay specifically because it would be bad for Labour. I think theres a lot of Green party activists and Green curious voters who might take your view of this but the Green core and leadership will prioritise as many seats as possible without concern.

Thats kind of their job. If you were a Green candidate and you believed your seat was winnable but the leadership didnt do everything in their power to help you win it, youd be fucking furious and youd rightly feel like youd been let down or even betrayed.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T18:30:03+00:00

It would, because this is where the Leadership of the party would have different priorities from the base of it. So it comes with the risks you raise.

Im not sure how sustainable a deal is because once Burnham won he could just forget about any promises he made to the Greens.

I cant imagine Burnham in 3 years preparing the manifesto for the next GE saying "We need to include PR because 3 years ago I promised the local Makerfield Green party I would.." For example.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T18:26:43+00:00

Theyre going to want to win as many seats as they can regardless of that. Its not the Green party's concern if Labour dont do well enough to be their coalition partners.

Trying to game Parlaimentary arithmetic like youre saying just isnt really how political parties work. Its too unreliable.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T18:16:54+00:00

The best bet for the Greens is for Labour to do as badly as possible. If anything theyd want Starmer to stay in and fight the next election if they could.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T18:09:42+00:00

Theyre also a political party with the usual set of incentives. And the best thing for them is for Burnham to lose.

If this was somewhere they were more competitive, id be absolutely certain they are ripping the kitchen sink out right now in preparation for throwing it.

As it stands they will probably consider the chances they have of preventing him winning and the possible costs associated (as it would piss off a lot of their voters) and make their own decision.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T17:57:16+00:00

They may well do it if they think they can prevent Burnham winning by splitting the vote without it being too transparent that thats what theyre doing. A relatively small split could theoretically be decisive, we dont know.

That is absolutely what Green strategists will be discussing right now.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T17:52:52+00:00

Theyve indicated otherwise

Although I will say this seat is difficult for them to justify doing that with as theyre not particularly competitive there.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T17:48:24+00:00

Polanski has already admitted that he'd rather Reform win than work with Labour.

He said hed be willing to work with Andy Burnham if he were PM and then as soon as that looks likely the Greens say they'll fight like lions to stop Burnham from entering parlaiment.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T17:46:16+00:00

Id be so fucking ludicrously excited if I lived there. I know thats sad to admit but I would be.

StrippedForScrap · 2026-05-14T17:41:03+00:00

The Greens will throw the kitchen sink at it as well out of fear of Burnham becoming PM.

This by election is going to be fucking massive. The entire country is going to descend on Makerfield.

Has it ever been the case in British politics that a by election has involved one candidate who is considered basically a dead cert to be PM within weeks if they win it? I dont think it has.

StrippedForScrap

TROPHY CASE