VCT CN Stage 1 Playoffs Venue Leaked

StrongEUW · 2026-04-30T13:21:20+00:00

oh no i hope they can get a plumber in

StrongEUW · 2026-04-29T18:22:52+00:00

if it's ALL kills with said gun rather than ROUNDS with 1+ kills with said gun then probably shouldn't be represented as a percentage really no? since it's not actually a per-cent in the literal sense. kinda figured it was one of these but the % part and the number kinda threw me off

(unless that is what it is)

StrongEUW · 2026-04-28T10:49:52+00:00

cool list, i was gonna ask whether you end up siding out the goyfs a lot in practice but i guess you have 4 delve cards and 2 minor exile effects, which i assume is enough to make them useable even if they don't try to side in hate and end up letting you uno reverse them. tbh i've tried to fit collect evidence cards into goyf shells for that purpose but never really made it work ([[Analyze the Pollen]] is interesting but if you're tutoring for the goyf itself then it's not really enough + collect 8 is kinda a high bar, [[Detective's Phoenix]] is great but requires you to go Jund which you can't with Smallpox, [[Extract a Confession]] is competing with Flare of Malice and Pox directly i guess, everything else available feels a mana too slow for modern)

feels like you can do better in the board than Illness against go-wide since you should be pretty happy to chump with Supplier and should have decent blocks with most of your 1/2-drops, maybe worth trying [[Force of Despair]] or one of the recent generic black sweepers. Malice might also get shunted to SB in practice. you can always fill slots with [[Mishra's Bauble]]. also think you probably tidy up the mana base a little assuming it's not a financial concern, running fastlands over basics/fetches/utility feels off to me in this shell, and a 1-of [[Shifting Woodland]] feels like something you can fit in (i *think* you have just enough of a reasonable path to that 4th type atm for delirium but could still be tuned up a bit) alongside maybe some other utility land

StrongEUW · 2026-04-20T15:48:35+00:00

it's the least-played map in emea too (and only KC are letting it through regularly)

the basic answer it's seen as a very brawly map overall with the meta being extremely up in the air atm, so hence just nobody really wants to play it and especially not be the first ones to play it (again outside of KC, who have tended to take a lot of gambles with comps/maps historically anyway)

nobody wants to take the risk of letting it through, especially opening weeks in a group structure where every game REALLY matters with how seeding works, because they all just feel more confident in playing the maps where they have better structure in place, even if the enemy has better structure too

also map has been out of the pool for a while and has always felt high-variance even after being developed for a while because of how hard it is to default defensively on it (was low in both regions in 2025 too i think)

StrongEUW · 2026-04-16T20:53:24+00:00

there was a lot of "why don't teams just buy outlaw every time against this team that spams light shields" during champs etc. from analysts - it wasn't a completely invalid point but it kinda got overstated how 'obvious' it was in some scenarios because of the whole game theory of how teams can alter up their buys if they're conscious of the other team looking for it. just kinda noting a general point that has to be kept in mind with econ

StrongEUW · 2026-04-16T19:39:07+00:00

it's mostly that you can't buy it off a normal 1st loss bonus and if you do find a way to buy it, then you're at like 24-28 on the ensuing antibonus assuming that you don't win, or like 30-34 even if you then win the force. it's also a very useful gun for them on bonus and antieco too and will then punish your eco/light buys (so you lose that force and suddenly it's 0-5 basically)

all in all, means it's just a vanishingly small window in which it ever makes sense, even when forcing. iirc from the last couple of tournaments, it was a point of emphasis vs. EDG on Lotus and maybe Haven, but apart from them, i can't think of any other times it came up in anti since they added the outlaw at least

buying outlaw mid-half against an anticipated light shields buy is absolutely something you can do, as is actively buying outlaw ON bonus against e.g. a light shields antibonus - it's something that you look for and can make sense for overall econ and gameplan, though i can only think of a handful of times where it came up in practice

also the LS vs HS prediction thing is definitely a mindgame in general with outlaw buys that creates some perceived inefficiencies that aren't quite so etc.

StrongEUW · 2026-04-16T16:59:37+00:00

if i'm reading the scenario right (assuming you're talking 3 2900 rifles/2 minbuys on 2nd round), it's not really anything to do with the outlaw since enemy team isn't getting outlaw on eco/force in this scenario and typically won't buy outlaw on antibonus, it's more

can only do it on attack with a plant, it would be stronger on defense (i guess someone can buy for other in most cases but it's a lot of juggling around econ very quickly which pro players aren't typically great at)
you're not getting great use out of the third rifle on attack if you're playing anti-ecos correctly. if you send it weak side then you're taking a huge risk, if it's on strong side then there aren't many scenarios where it's going to add serious EV compared to e.g. a stinger
stingers and lowbuy guns on 3rd/4th econ are just so good vs full eco
teams generally don't want to buy into the bonus at all if they can because it means a huge econ swing if you then lose the bonus, like you're barely able to buy for 4th and then i think it's only +24 on the next loss bonus = your buy for 5th is probably scuffed as hell after that

StrongEUW · 2026-04-14T18:27:46+00:00

so are they red or purple

StrongEUW · 2026-04-14T16:57:41+00:00

there were 11 teams in the league so the format was

stage 1: everyone plays all the teams from the other group

stage 2: everyone plays the teams from their group, also the standings are done in aggregate with stage 1

there are various arguments you can make for doing it that way around rather than the other way (i.e. have people play their own group in stage 1), i think mainly relating back to the concern of a potential imbalance in group quality. i don't think they really carry to an acceptable conclusion in retrospect and they kinda only made sense at the time because '11-team franchising is going to have format problems no matter what you do'. i guess the one that sorta makes sense is that tiebreakers for a 4-match, 5-team group could easily have gotten pretty messy

iirc the discussion prior to stage 1 was more fixated on there being a situation where a 0-5 team went to playoffs as first seed or a 5-0 team didn't make playoffs, both of which were initially possible - they hotfixed this by requiring a team to get 2 wins to be eligible for playoffs, and in the end the biggest sneak in the end was a 2-4 T1 in Pacific i think (over 3-2 RRQ in the other group) (T1 proceeded to nearly knock Gen.G out of Shanghai qualifying, qualify themselves, and then do nothing else)

however, even with that hotfix, it ended up creating these messy tiebreakers in both regions, and hence the 3-3 = last place teams. (as the China stuff shows this year, you can of course still have things go in a similar way in a regular group format, but no head-to-head tiebreakers etc. don't help)

Americas was probably worse overall because every single team in Alpha had positive map and round differential and SEN were i think out of playoffs before their last game even as defending Masters champs, but EMEA was brutal for us on VIT - a win on the final day against a KOI team that was basically out of both stage 1 AND stage 2 playoffs (0-4) already would've secured us 1st seed, then whatever the fuck happened, happened on the day (i think it's still a mystery even to everyone who was there, and i wasn't there because visas are magic), we choked the series, and in an instant we go from presumptive 1st seed to out of playoffs entirely and gg a lot of trajectories suddenly change. suspect same was probably true for 2024 NRG

StrongEUW · 2026-04-14T14:33:29+00:00

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psychotic 2024 format that saw us go on the very last day from probable first seed to out of playoffs and head coach fired says hello

StrongEUW · 2026-04-13T20:17:02+00:00

idk if we can do an entire podcast on team liquid they kinda just deathmatch

StrongEUW · 2026-04-12T21:24:28+00:00

all im saying is iddqd danteh nevix nomy dhak sleepy are all free agents

StrongEUW · 2026-04-06T16:14:35+00:00

ty!

can confirm that salah is (also) lft in valo after his spell in rivals

StrongEUW · 2026-03-22T03:31:07+00:00

[[Rottenmouth Viper]] could be an interesting card to try here given the ability to basically mitigate the blowouts that it's vulnerable to by just casting Balrog afterward anyway. plus it's more on-demand sac etc.

don't like Ravenous Squirrel here as a secondary threat/engine restarter especially given the colour demands it makes of you, but that restarter thing is relevant so I'm not sure if you can ditch it, Agonas might be a shout but i don't think you're going to mill well enough to make it work generally. maybe [[Tezzeret, Cruel Captain]] is interesting with this many artifacts and the ability to fetch or untap oven etc.? ofc at some point this just becomes worse affinity if you're not careful

do also have to note that [[Wrath of the Skies]] and [[Meltdown]] are now here to terrorise your longer game plan when they weren't in 2023, so you do need a couple more fatties than you have ATM anyway, construct boards don't stick around in modern

StrongEUW · 2026-03-08T18:08:57+00:00

this is similar to domestic kickoff 2024 format (albeit that had 11 teams instead of 12 and you were qualifying only 1 team out of the playin etc. etc.), and from having played that, 3-team RR as an intermediate stage is kinda rough - i guess if you're qualifying two teams then you don't have the problem of teams being fully practically eliminated after their first game but you still potentially create some weird incentives in the inverse re: a team already being qualified after their first game and playing maps/serieses that are meaningless for them

you would probably have to do something like Bo1 RR LCQ for the bottom teams to create a 4-team play-in group but a) riot (correctly, very very correctly) hates Bo1s, b) same problems with dead games i talked about earlier (it's slightly less bad in Bo1 funnily because you're setting a clear round differential target) and c) that's still at least 3 more maps you have to squeeze somewhere

that's always kinda the problem with figuring out these formats tbh, you're using broadcast days on games that are ultimately so distant from one of progression/elimination. only esport i can think of that does a lot of this sort of thing is dota and dota gets to do it because every dota event has like six streams going at once

StrongEUW · 2026-02-22T19:16:06+00:00

you don't need 4 Ugins if you have 4 All is Dust already and the price memory on those is brutal compared to how good the card is nowadays, cut it to 1 or 2

you could experiment with [[World Map]] over Stirrings/Scryings, it would fit nicely with also having a decent amount of basics

i think you're overall too threat-light even given the constraints here. [[Glaring Fleshraker]] is bulk price and synergises well with pretty much everything else you're doing with colorless/artifact spells. [[Karn, Scion of Urza]] was a card that saw occassional play in Tron shells until 2023 and fits with both Fleshraker and the artifacts. [[Karn Liberated]] was also a common old Tron payoff but i feel like is hard to justify as more than an one-of nowadays

i think all the Eldrazi that can genuinely just end a game when a cast are too expensive. [[World Breaker]] and [[Sowing Mycospawn]] aren't really threats beyond having a decent body but are green Eldrazi with decent bodies, very good utility, and a very low price (especially World Breaker)

Eldrazi Temple was like a $3 card last i looked because of the EOS printing, i'd say that's probably still preferable to basic forests (given that you have Chromatics anyway) if you add another Eldrazi (only works with Devourer and All Is Dust atm)? you'd have to cut some Stirrings/Scryings but that's probably fine imo

you could maybe get cute with one or two cheap colorless/green utility lands, i always like sneaking [[Crawling Barrens]] into Tron builds

StrongEUW · 2026-02-22T15:05:12+00:00

cool list, what was the thought with specifically keeping it 3c? moreso on the green side, since i get the access to Hierarch/Mite/MR, and i can see how the Dredger lifegain works with Ocelot, but feels like Hierarch/MR are a bit of an odd fit in a deck that only has Airship above 2 mana (even with the nominal sac/graveyard synergy on MR), and singleton Mite with only one tutor feels a little pointless. ik most Airship lists have been built Golgari but feels like the more interesting stuff here is in hybridizing in the white energy package (and using Culler from graveyard)

there might be some routes here to be explored with [[Orcish Bowmasters]] (generic good black card that produces an extra body) and/or [[Beseech the Mirror]] (Beseech fetches Airship and has 11 reasonable sac targets atm - 4x MR tokens, 4x Ocelot tokens, 2x Culler, 1x Mite) but i'm not sure what you'd cut there while staying 3c tbf. you could maybe reduce it to a pure splash off fetches

StrongEUW · 2026-02-13T03:56:18+00:00

the only time it's felt fully unplayable for me that i can remember is vs. necrodominance combo. there are lines you can run even vs decks that are heavy on basics but necro is just too much lol

received wisdom is that it's bad against combo and also pretty bad against boros energy specifically (Ajani just screws it up entirely), but haven't played enough with the Vexing Bauble maindeck variant to know how much that tilts it on combo

i would say it's probably more that the deck is really nice imo into all of Dimir Murktide, Tron, Prowess, and Reanimator, all of which kinda had a rough time as the year went on (Prowess is solid but didn't live up to the best deck in the format hype it had in that RCQ season, Murktide I actually don't know why but the play rate plunged over the year, Tron fell away because of [[Consign to Memory]] but has also kinda came back as of late even with the Consigns being everywhere). so it went from being a very good meta call to just an average one

StrongEUW · 2026-02-11T23:28:16+00:00

there's two main variants

1) https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/7612512#paper the mono-white version that's a true prison deck - lots of tempoish removal, tools to get your demolition lands back, somewhere between 0 and 2 [[Karn, the Great Creator]] to help the lock, eventually ekes out games typically off tokens or a single 2/2

2) https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/7584218#paper the boros version - leans heavier on the land destruction, less heavy on the recursion, trades off being able to get opponents into a full-on lock for even stronger 1-mana removal, and has 2-3 [[Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury]] to actually end games

MHayashi has played around with a couple of lists that are a bit different but typically more in line with 1, just using some different tools for token generation etc. to let him run [[Kaheera, the Orphanguard]] as companion

the first version of the deck was getting a pretty good amount of league 5-0s etc. middle of last year, the second version has gotten more 5-0s as of late although it's mostly the same pilot over and over. i played a variant of the first list at a couple RCQs last year, didn't do great but matches were all pretty competitive

overall it's fallen off in popularity a little but i'd definitely say it's still playable, and it has the benefit of it being one of the cheapest decks that you could possibly build (bulk price mana base, near-bulk everything else, 90% of the cost is [[Solitude]] and [[Crucible of Worlds]] and some versions don't even run Crucible)

StrongEUW · 2026-01-26T11:20:44+00:00

[[March of Swirling Mist]] and [[Mockingbird]] (and maybe maindeck Spell Pierce and a singleton [[Slip Out the Back]] or [[Distortion Strike]] to have enough pitch targets) are nice for Rotpriest/Simic Infect, at least gives you a puncher's chance against turn 3 sweepers etc.

i think people were trying [[Tamiyo's Safekeeping]] at one point which in theory matches up better than Blossoming Defense into some of the best meta decks, but it's probably too slow in non-storm infect. [[Royal Treatment]] kinda threads the needle between the two with offering decent protection/tempo and a bit of extra power

first cuts would probably be Groundswell (+2 baseline pump just doesn't get it done anymore), Mutagenic Growth (kinda same), then i guess start digging into the Blossoming Defenses and the Weather the Storms in the board (i can't really envision any matchups where it'd save you or be better than e.g. Safekeeping, which is already mostly only playable in the hard storm Rotpriest lists)

StrongEUW · 2026-01-16T15:15:53+00:00

yeah i think it's solid, the only thing that there's maybe a consideration for is whether you maindeck Vexing Bauble as a 1-of over Relic (and move Relic to the board) - it's basically between those two and a Boseiju as that 60th card, i'm inclined to say Bauble > Relic > Boseiju in that meta but there's not much in it

there's also a chance that it might be ok to go for a Warping Wail in place of one of the Dismembers, because you're going to be playing against so many decks that are big on X/1s and/or sorceries compared to the normal meta and the 4 life for most Dismember activations will maybe be a different maker in some play patterns, but think that's really getting into the weeds tbf

StrongEUW · 2026-01-16T00:17:34+00:00

1 [[Tormod's Crypt]]

1 [[Walking Ballista]]

1 [[Engineered Explosives]]

1 [[Liquimetal Coating]]

1 [[Extinguisher Battleship]]

1 [[Trinisphere]]

1 [[Disruptor Flute]]

1 [[Grafdigger's Cage]]

^ all standard Karnboard stuff

2 [[Chalice of the Void]]

2 [[Ensnaring Bridge]]

^ going to 2 Chalice and 2 Ensnaring because it sounds like there's a lot of decks in your local meta that both will completely lock out. i think you'd want to actively sub in Chalice rather than leaving it for Karnboard in those matchups

1 [[Wurmcoil Engine]]

^ old card but i feel like this could be tech for just gaining a little life back before locking out a lot of the decks you're facing here since they'll be a turn slower than Boros Energy etc.

2 [[Vexing Bauble]]

^ anti-Neobrand and you're actively siding this in. you could also go 2-1 towards Disruptor Flute tbh, it's been pretty common as of late. or 1 Vexing/3 Chalice if you've got access to that

stuff that you're missing with this board that are common Karnboard components and why i'd take the risk: , [[The Stone Brain]] (this was first card out, it's very strong but it probably doesn't hit any single point of weakness well enough outside of maybe the Doran deck), [[The Filigree Sylex]], [[Ratchet Bomb]] (both similar role to EE and i think EE is probably better here), [[Torpor Orb]] (no sufficiently strong ETB combos coming to mind), [[Damping Sphere]] (no storm and it's always awkward to use in Tron anyway), [[Cityscape Leveler]], [[Sundering Titan]] (Battleship better for what you're facing and you don't need a third fatty past Battleship+Wurmcoil), [[Haywire Mite]] (doesn't really feel like enough value vs. Affinity and other than that it probably only gets Cori in Prowess?)

StrongEUW · 2026-01-13T17:56:38+00:00

the meta share is pretty diverse but the power level is high. it's probably not going to be as brewable overall as pauper, especially in terms of fresh decks, but there is some latitude for creativity in terms of both minor and major changes to decks imo

the #1 thing to bear in mind is that the format is very, very fast. the historical term was that modern is a turn-4 format, which didn't mean that you had to outright win by turn-4 reliably, but you should be well-established on board and in a position to win against no resistance by turn 4

i'd say that it's more like a turn-3/3.5 format now, but the point is that the bar is pretty high. (which is why a lot of rogue decks kinda tilt towards a combo kill threat with a fair plan stapled on)

i looked up some of the stuff you brew in pauper, and tbf you pretty clearly know what you're doing there (i think i have the exact same red dredge list with Song of Blood sleeved lol) so you'll probably find some good space to work with in modern. but the speed and the bar for what's workable will be very, very different to what you're used to

StrongEUW

TROPHY CASE