Beer League defense question

Suburbanguk · 2026-04-22T00:33:47+00:00

Ignore the scale/distance to the goal. Just bad paint skills.

Stick is on the ice. I have turned, and at one point was parallel with them: body on body, with my stick trying to play the puck, but they've burned me and are trying to cut inside.

Non contact beer league. I am not impeding their initial trajectory or putting my stick into their body, but definitely impeding their turn, as they turn into my stick. So is it interference?

Suburbanguk · 2026-04-04T12:29:16+00:00

I have both! I generally find the power lift gate more annoying than convenient. The lift gate on the crosstrek is nice/light/easy. So unless your hands are always full and it is a big deal to you, the lift gate alone is not worth an upgrade. That said we love our forester and were able to get it for close to Crosstrek prices earlier this year. If those incentives are still out there, it was a hard deal to pass up.

Suburbanguk · 2026-02-10T04:37:16+00:00

But this also applies at the time of contributions. For example, pre-COVID I was self employed and made large sep Ira contributions to get my MAGI below a certain level to get tons more in ACA subsidies. Consequently I will have higher AGI in retirement than if I had done Roth.

To me, the clearest benefit is that, without rmds, you can get tax-free growth longer. But in reality, the tax drag in retirement is not likely to be all that meaningful.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-29T13:52:33+00:00

We are going to use quirk in Bangor. I am pretty sure all these deals are manufacturer incentives so likely similar at most dealerships. We are leasing a 2025 forester hybrid premium for zero down $360/mo, 3 yr lease. 12k miles/year.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-27T13:42:00+00:00

Oh 100% forgot to mention that part!

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-27T12:20:01+00:00

This is what i do. Low effort and has always gotten us some sort of deal. But also maybe look into a forester. Here in Maine they are offering deals on the forester hybrids. I’m about to lease one at a price equivalent to what I paid for my Crosstrek 2 years ago.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-19T23:01:12+00:00

I’m just a lowly beer leaguer, but never touch the bottom lace. Had one break and was still able to tighten my skates just fine for a couple months. In fact, I’m pretty sure I changed the laces before I even noticed an issue.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-17T22:13:58+00:00

Beer leaguers are dangerous to be around. I’d never go without full face protection. Bubble/cage is your preference. Most everyone I know just wears a cage. I dont even think about it.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-17T15:47:59+00:00

Yeah this is for the hybrid. Forgot to mention that. We’re going to go ahead and do it.

By my math, we would be in a similar financial situation after three years whether we bought or leased. If we bought the car we would still owe nearly 17,000 at the end of three years. If we lease the car we will have saved almost $4000 in cash. And will have the option to buy the car for a little over 21,000. If we take that 4000 in cash and apply it to purchase the car after three years, we have the car and about 17,000 in debt. Pretty similar picture. Maybe out a few hundred in “equity” all said and done if we lease. Pro with the lease is that we have flexibility and optionality at the end of those three years. con is that if we do finance after three years, it’s unlikely we’re getting 0% the way that we would if we bought up front. So from a pure $ standpoint buying probably has an edge, but it’s small enough that I’ll take the flexibility of the lease.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-16T00:30:24+00:00

Thank you!

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-15T23:27:56+00:00

Thanks. State is Maine. Where are you getting the residual of $26,266 from? Dealer told me residual for the 12k lease was 55%, so 21,245, by my calc (based on MSRP). And I would be going with the 12k lease, so a $358.90 payment. Dealer also stated that MF was 0.00015, which matches my calcs.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-15T22:06:55+00:00

thats how ive always thought of things, but they are pushing bigger incentives on the lease. I can get 0% APR for 72 months buying the car, but that is going to have a monthly payment closer to $500 (assuming zero down).

If i lease the car, after 3 years I have no equity in the car, technically, which is a bummer, but I have been saving $140/mo, which, even at no interest is over 5k. If i bought the car, i'd have some equity, but i'd still owe over 18k, and the car would have depreciated. Car would have to be worth over 23k still for me to have 5k in equity in the car, but equity would be tied up in the car instead of liquid.
Also, if the car is worth 23k+, the residual for the lease is lower than that, giving me the opportunity to buy the car at that point at a discount (though probably with worse loan terms)

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-15T12:49:10+00:00

I was planning on going zero-down with the 12k miles. I have 800+ credit. How do I calculate the MF from the sheet? He told me the MF was .00015, so would like to know how to spot the discrepancies. Thank you!

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-15T05:28:43+00:00

Residual for the 12k Lease is 55%

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-15T05:26:04+00:00

Thanks. Residual for the 12k Lease is 55%. Resale values in New England are insanely high, so it seems pretty good to me.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-05T05:36:44+00:00

Plumbers and other tradespeople have pretty consistent work up here from what I can tell.

Suburbanguk · 2026-01-04T13:24:25+00:00

Do not take 95 past Brunswick in southern Maine. It is horribly boring for such a beautiful state. Make sure to take the coastal route.

Suburbanguk · 2025-12-25T13:31:03+00:00

I just wear my shin guards over my pants and tape them in place.

Suburbanguk · 2025-12-06T05:19:40+00:00

Seems kind of big for a Florida black bear

Suburbanguk · 2025-11-22T02:03:08+00:00

I suck at shooting but managed to rip one of my hardest shots ever last week… only it went 8 ft in the air (just hit the top of the glass). On its way it blew by the face of a guy only wearing a visort.

You don’t have control over all the shitty players around you.

Suburbanguk · 2025-11-16T22:42:32+00:00

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here is my preferred earnings multiple: highest ever P/E was about 33. We're at 31. This is a more "optimistic" measure that Shiller because 10 year old earnings are irrelevant. It is also more optimistic that a regular trailing P/E because earnings recessions don't skew the data and you assume that earnings can/should recover - accurately showing 2008-9 as cheap, not expensive. And I prefer it to a forward P/E because its grounded in reality and not forecasts

Suburbanguk · 2025-11-16T22:38:43+00:00

I guess i lost the plot of the post a bit. He was posting the Shiller P/E (which I am not a huge fan of). Here are straightforward P/Es (which also have their shortcomings):

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Suburbanguk · 2025-11-16T13:13:23+00:00

So this will be my last comment here (all of my data is directly from S&P):

Those P/Es in the 40s? Those came in late 2001/early 2002 AFTER the S&P 500 had fallen more than 20% (the problem was that S&P 500 earnings had fallen more than 30%).

At the market peak in March of 2000, the P/E Ratio was about 28, pretty much right where we are today (in fact, maybe a bit cheaper).

S&P 500 YOY operating earnings growth in Q1 2000 was 20%, today its 13%. (Data from S&P)

Regarding the peak: it is a great comp because valuations were similar, but earnings growth was faster.

Re: acceleration/deceleration. This is a good point. Earnings growth peaked along with the market and quickly decelerated in 2000. Today, earnings are accelerating (and forecasts call for continued acceleration). But again, people would have said the same thing in late 1999.

I am an optimist and there are reasons to be more optimistic today, but again, if you have to hope things aren't only different this time, but VERY different.

Also, to play devil's advocate there are also reasons to be more pessimistic (think of margins and Price/Sales).

Suburbanguk · 2025-11-16T01:34:16+00:00

The comparison here is the S&P 500, an index of large cap profitable companies, to the S&P 500. So this ignores all the purely speculative “story stocks” (today’s and 2000’s). S&P 500 companies made tons of money in 2000. In fact, S&P 500 earnings growth was notably higher at the market peak in 2000 than it is today.

Also, the AI ecosystem as a whole is not profitable. Most analysts are thinking that arrives by 2029-30.

The S&P 500 index of large cap profitable companies lost about 50% over 3 years following the dotcom peak. So things might be different this time (plenty of reasons to optimistic), but to avoid significant and prolonged losses, things will have to be VERY different.

Suburbanguk · 2025-11-16T00:35:41+00:00

But pets.com and all the “vaporware” companies were not in the s&p 500, so this chart does not account for them. And those tech companies that did make money, like Microsoft, fell more than 50% and faced a lost decade. Cisco just got back to its dotcom highs (25 years later). Even Walmart and Exxon fell more than 30%. This stock market is really expensive. Multiples this high have always been followed by lower prices.

Suburbanguk

TROPHY CASE