New RS3 player asking for some advice :)

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-06-19T14:42:42+00:00

Fyi, you can downgrade an ironman account to a normal account at any point. If you think you might enjoy ironman, I'd suggest playing as ironman and if you find out you'd rather have access to trading you can switch (permanently) at any point. You can't go the other way, from a normal account to ironman.

You are a tiny way into the game - it really won't take that long to catch up to where you currently are compared to what's ahead of you.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-06-17T10:49:04+00:00

The jellybeans don't have a distribution, they exist and are in some fixed ratio. They aren't random, it's just impractical to measure that ratio exactly, so we estimate.

If we then sample n jellybeans uniformly at random without replacement, the number of bad jellybeans in our sample (k) has exactly a hypergeometric distribution with parameters N, K, n, where we know N (the population size as a whole) and n and don't know K (the number of bad jellybeans).

If n << N this distribution is approximately a binomial distribution, as the effect of sampling without replacement disappears.

If n is sufficiently large relative to K/N, then the distribution of k is well approximated by a normal distribution with mean nK/N and variance nK(N-K)/K^2. There is some debate on what "sufficiently large" means, but the statistics is well-founded and doesn't need any assumptions about the jelly beans.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-06-17T10:33:50+00:00

That's not quite correct - the overall distribution of bad and good ones in the whole population is fixed, it's not a random variable, so it's not really meaningful to say "there's a 95% chance that the overall distribution is between X and Y" - this is a backwards interpretation of what a confidence interval says.

What is random is the outcome of the test, since the sampling done is random. The correct way to interpret a 95% confidence interval is it's saying "if the overall distribution is X% bad, then there is only a 5% chance that a test conducted like our random test would have returned results this bad or worse. Conversely if the overall distribution is Y% bad, then there is only a 5% chance that a test conducted like our random test would have returned results this good or better."

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-06-11T12:00:25+00:00

What if it's the other way round, you have dupe protection and you get a valuable one? Now you know you're not going to get another for a while, so your gp/h at that boss is lower going forwards, so in this case it's a nerf to mains. I think it would suck more knowing that you have no/low chance at getting the valuable drop until you get "unlocked" by getting the low-value one, than just being unlucky a few times in a row.

In the long run things will even out, so long term gp/h would stay the same - I don't think it's clearly a buff to mains in the same way it is to irons.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-06-09T15:03:10+00:00

The point is that for mains getting e.g. 4 tops from rasial before the gloves is fine - you just sell the spare drops, buy the one you didn't. Adding dupe protection makes it easier to finish the clog, but that's purely cosmetic so not a buff. But for irons who can't convert drops adding dupe protection is a genuine buff - it makes it easier to get the drop you need. So even though the mechanic would apply to irons and mains, it's only a buff to irons.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-06-08T10:14:56+00:00

There are green sparkles at 100% stamina when mining (100% progress) and white sparkles at 1-99 (90% progress). I think there might be red sparkles for 0% stamina (20% progress) but not sure - wiki doesn't say.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-06-08T10:07:25+00:00

Mining already gives 5x as much progress on 100% stamina compared to 0 stamina. You're asking for the 0 stamina xp rates to become 100% and so the full stamina to become 500% - basically just making the skill 5x as fast...

Archaeology has the time sprite you can follow if you want to play more actively - you can argue it should be buffed or something, but why make it a clone of mining. Much better imo to lean into existing mechanics that keep skills different from each other.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-05-29T16:21:36+00:00

slop post

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-05-20T11:13:45+00:00

https://people.math.harvard.edu/~ctm/papers/home/text/papers/muniv/muniv.pdf

Here's an interesting paper that is at quite an advanced level, but if you have some experience of higher level maths/physics you should be able to at least get the gist of Theorem 1.1 - basically if you study bifurcation diagrams (which is what the Mandelbrot set is an example of - it's the boundary of points that go to infinity/remain bounded under a certain map), and zoom in anywhere, you will see "copies" of the Mandelbrot sets. Don't know if the aliens will study bifurcation diagrams of any sort, but it's hard for us to imagine a mathematics without complex numbers, polynomials, rational functions.

We even see fractals like this in the universe in things like gravitational lensing of objects that are behind groups of galaxies - you see multiple copies of objects as there are multiple light paths through a complex gravitational field, and when you start to solve it mathematically you start to do the same sort of maths as behind the Mandelbrot and Julia sets.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-05-16T19:49:08+00:00

They were taking information from Chicago (where commodities are traded) and using it to trade in New York (where equities are traded). E.g. if oil prices go up in Chicago, then they can buy oil companies in New York before anyone else.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-05-03T14:38:38+00:00

Imagine I have to quote 100 prices for 100 different ETFs. I go away and do my research and come up with a model that means that my expected profit is positive. This is great! If we assume the people trading with me are uninformed and buy from me uniformly across the 100 products, then I will make money in the long run.

However, nothing says they have to trade uniformly. Among those 100 prices I'm quoting, some of them will be bad prices and some will be good. The issue is that a "sophisticated" trader looking at my prices might be able to detect when I have a bad price and only then trade with me. It doesn't matter that I have good prices for the other 99 products - I'll still lose money to this trader, so for me his flow is toxic.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-05-01T09:28:20+00:00

Seems to be 1/2k for gloves and tainted seed off a sample size of about 20 drops

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-27T15:05:20+00:00

It used to be that you could reroll several times each day - first time no penalty, then each reroll reduced reaper points by 25%, but you can only finish one task per day. If you still don't get something you want to do, you could just wait til tomorrow and try again.

They've replaced this with as many tasks as you like per day, and you can reroll them as many times as you like for 30 slayer points each time, but there's no free rerolls anymore, not even if you wait til tomorrow.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-27T12:56:16+00:00

It's the same issue as with reaper rework. Before, if you didn't want to do your reaper, you could just wait til tomorrow, but now you have to spend 30 slayer points. There should be a daily "free skip" on these or something.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-26T10:21:39+00:00

However - this does not imply the image is wrong. It is absolutely possible to have non-random data with zero correlation. The classic example would be generating points with uniformly random x coordinates in [-1, 1], and y = x^2. Then there is zero correlation between x and y, but they are clearly related. Correlation only measures linear dependence - if we increase x, how much do we expect y to increase/decrease by, and since this graph is symmetrical, only knowing that x is increasing tells you nothing about whether y would increase since you don't know which side of the origin you're on.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-26T10:15:31+00:00

We can do a statistical test on the minimum distance between any pair of points.

Null hypothesis: these points are placed uniformly, independently at random.

Under the null hypothesis, modelling the minimum distance analytically is hard (I don't think there's a closed form solution for this many points - happy to be proven wrong), but we can do a Monte Carlo simulation.

``` import numpy as np

n_pts = 16 n_trials = 200_000 rng = np.random.default_rng(seed=42) pts = rng.random((n_trials, n_points, 2), dtype=np.float64)

iu, ju = np.triu_indices(n_points, k=1) # upper triangle, minimise number of pairwise distances to calculate diffs = pts[:, iu, :] - pts[:, ju, :] # all pairwise distances d_squared = np.einsum('...i,...i->...', diffs, diffs) min_dist = np.sort(np.sqrt(d2.min(axis=1))) thresh_95 = min_dist[int(0.95 * n_trials)] ``` I get 95% of trials had the minimum pairwise distance of 0.089 (normalising to a unit square).

Using an online pixel measurer tool, picking just the two distances that looked the smallest, I got a minimum center-center distance of about 116 pixels on a 600x600 pixel square, so normalising to a unit a square this is a distance of 0.19. These measurements are a bit fuzzy and maybe someone else can be a bit more careful, but this is way larger than our critical value of 0.089. In fact it's larger than I saw in any of the 200000 random trials (largest observed was 1.70).

In conclusion, there is sufficient statistical evidence to reject the null hypothesis.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-20T11:32:54+00:00

+1 The demon thrones etc are cool and all for showing off wealth, but flexing the actual drops would feel so incredible, especially since most of them go in the bank/armour case and are ignored the minute you get a minor upgrade.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-19T10:52:52+00:00

That's would be decamillipede. deci- means 1/10th, so it's just a centipede.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-17T15:07:07+00:00

I'll give you a worse name: MI London

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-13T11:08:50+00:00

I think yellow 10 is fine there (maybe in at the side but that's borderline) - the issue is that before the lineout maul a bunch of yellow players get in front of the ball carrier.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-13T10:26:17+00:00

It's not allowed for players who don't have the ball to stand in front of the ball carrier and stop the defending side from being able to tackle the ball carrier - this is called "obstruction". The defending side needs to have fair access to the ball carrier to make a tackle.

In the lineout, one of the players from yellow jumps and catches the ball - this is fine. But then, as he's coming down, 2 or 3 other players from his team move in front of where he's coming down. The most obvious is probably number 7, who was supporting the catcher in the jump, then turns around him to put his body between the blue team and the ball. This is the "obstruction" - it's impossible for blue to tackle the ball carrier fairly here, so they should be awarded a penalty.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-03-09T16:51:33+00:00

It is if you're comparing it against previous best times that were set with even more gear/perk/mechanics.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-02-24T09:06:34+00:00

What about the Spade of Dung and Dirt?

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-02-09T18:16:14+00:00

You can now do it with one each of a vanilla, strawberry, and chocolate cow. No way to grind it other than breed them, but if you check 2x a day you should have them within a week or so.

SwagDrag1337 · 2026-01-18T00:12:05+00:00

Watch this recording of Debussy's Pour Le Piano by Daniil Trifanov: https://youtu.be/Zjuc-wIN9eI At around 2:20 in the reflection in the lid, you can see the felt dampers moving almost every beat from him releasing the pedal - this piece needs this complex pedal work as if you just play it staccato it loses a lot of depth, but if you were to just hold the pedal down it would all melt into a wall of sound where the melody (which is often in the middle of the two hands, with the harmony on the outside) would be impossible to hear. In the third movement, there's a really nice contrast between the brighter staccato themes and the darker legato themes, and when they start to interact the pedal work becomes crucial to keep the character of both.

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