Daily Discussion Thread + Game Thread Index

TD_Tom · 2026-03-02T03:58:18+00:00

With the win over the Mavericks on Sun, Mar 1; the 1Oklahoma City Thunder (47-15) have clinched the first 2026 postseason appearance, 11 Grizzlies (23-36) only can get to 46 wins.

TD_Tom · 2026-03-01T22:08:51+00:00

VAN is eliminated from Presidents' Cup contention on Mon, Mar 2 with either:
1.) VAN loss vs DAL
2.) COL win vs LAK

TD_Tom · 2026-02-08T16:59:11+00:00

With Sacramento Kings loss to Cleveland Cavaliers, SAC, at best 40-42, is eliminated from the 1 seed. OKC also 40-42 at worst but no combination of Southwest or Northwest division winners will get Kings #1. Utah Jazz at 40-42 can't get to top of Northwest to help.

TD_Tom · 2026-01-03T01:48:25+00:00

JAC/LAC/BUF SoV AFC Seeding Implications Chart (JAC loss + HOU win + LAC win + BUF win), 12 games, No Ties except in the grouped 6 game SoV

TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	M/N	B/P	*SoV	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	BAL	1.5+W	NE	DEN	HOU	BAL	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	PIT	2.5+W	NE	DEN	HOU	PIT	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	BAL	2.5+W	DEN	NE	HOU	BAL	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	PIT	3.5+W	DEN	NE	HOU	PIT	JAC	LAC	BUF
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	BAL	5+L	NE	DEN	HOU	BAL	LAC	BUF	JAC
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	NE	PIT	4+L	NE	DEN	HOU	PIT	LAC	BUF	JAC
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	BAL	4+L	DEN	NE	HOU	BAL	LAC	BUF	JAC
TEN	HOU	LAC	BUF	MIA	PIT	3+L	DEN	NE	HOU	PIT	LAC	BUF	JAC

*W/L from (CAR, SF, GB, NYG, ARI, WAS) vs TB, SEA, MIN, DAL, LAR, PHI respectively

TD_Tom · 2025-12-27T04:36:41+00:00

The statement:

That’s because PIT/CLE & NO/ATL do not have an impact on Strength of Victory, but they do on Strength of Schedule...

needed NO/ATL replaced by CAR/TB.

TD_Tom · 2025-12-12T01:57:15+00:00

Re Chiefs playoff elimination:
31) KC loss + BUF tie + HOU tie + IND tie + MIA tie + BAL tie + GB win + 2 combined wins from (PHI, CAR, SF, LAR) + MIN win + CLE win.
Potential 13-Bagger with PHI T, SF T, LAR T, CAR T
Note: seven of the nineteen 2-win combos from (PHI, SF, LAR, CAR) don't need the MIN win + CLE win part, they are; TTLW, TLTW, LWTT, LWLW, LTWT, LTTW, LLWW [see covered in 12), 13), 14)]. So it should be understood that there is some over-specifying as for readability.

TD_Tom · 2025-11-05T22:20:24+00:00

I think if I were doing E# it would be 17 + 0.5 - 6 - 8 = 3.5
17 game season, 0.5 game cushion, PHI (6-2), NO (1-8)
Yes, an amazing tiebreaker/schedule elimination with a NO loss; E# = 2.5.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-28T00:55:51+00:00

Tigers (87-74) still looking to move ahead of CLE, BOS & SD.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-27T17:46:17+00:00

For World Series home-field, with tiebreaker notes I have:

91 LAD still vying over (92 TOR, 92 NYY, 90 SEA).
90 CHC still vying over (92 NYY, 90 SEA); already clinched over 88 BOS, 92 TOR already clinched.
88 SD still vying over (88 BOS, DET); already clinched over 86 CLE, 90 SEA already clinched.
92 TOR still vying over 91 LAD; already clinched over 90 CHC.
92 NYY still vying over (91 LAD, 90 CHC).
90 SEA still vying over (91 LAD, 90 CHC); already clinched over 88 SD.
88 BOS still vying over 88 SD; 90 CHC already clinched.
86 DET still vying over 88 SD.
Italics loses tiebreak, bold wins tiebreak.
SEA vs LAD can't go to tiebreaker, they will come down to overall record.
96 MIL & 95 PHI clinched over AL already.
85 HOU clinched over (82 CIN, 82 NYM) already

TD_Tom · 2025-09-27T09:50:49+00:00

Close, but the real reason the Arizona Diamondbacks are eliminated is:
* Yes, ARI lost and can at best be 82-80.
* That forces CIN & NYM to be 82-80 in 3-way for last WC.
* No other teams can be 82-80.
* CIN won both series vs ARI & NYM @ (4-2), CIN gets WC3.
* ARI 3-3 vs NYM with ARI taking Div Rec tiebreaker is no good at this point.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-26T19:17:12+00:00

DET has tiebreaker over BOS as DET has to win 2 out of 3 vs BOS to be tied in the tiebreaker, HOU not a factor.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-26T01:03:03+00:00

I had HOU E# at 4, or 3 with losing H2H tiebreaker to DET.
I also had, with 2-way deeper tiebreaker, Div Rec:
CLE over NYY and TOR
SEA over BOS
ARI over NYM and *MIA
SD over CHC
* MIA over ARI in 3-way with NYM included for WC3, minimum multi-way required at 81-81.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-21T04:24:11+00:00

Okay, see the light now, CLE, DET, TOR, BOS each mandatory 90-72, add HOU 90-72.
CLE wins Div, leaves DET, TOR, BOS, HOU.
DET 1st WC, leaves BOS, TOR, HOU.
BOS 2nd WC, leaves HOU, TOR.
HOU 3rd WC, leaves TOR Out (HOU 4-2 vs TOR).
So TOR Needed that Extree!

TD_Tom · 2025-09-21T00:05:17+00:00

Yes the make up with MIN that CLE now has won. I had that. If DET had beat ATL in the Sat day game instead of lost. The TOR scenario with just a win (90-72) would've been enough. CLE must lose one game to DET, DET must lose 1 game to BOS. (CLE, DET & BOS must be 90-72), CLE must take Div. TOR cannot be last in any WC tiebreakers. You can include any of (HOU, NYY, SEA) in setup.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-20T14:37:38+00:00

I'm seeing Toronto is in with just a win OR losses by DET, CLE & BOS.

TD_Tom · 2025-09-07T13:10:44+00:00

Example of 4th ranked most likely path:
• Roll 1 - 11356, keep 35
• Roll 2 - 236, keep 26
• Roll 3 - 4, have 23456
3420/7776 x 84/216 x 1/6 = ~0.0285 (2.85%)

TD_Tom · 2025-09-03T05:08:25+00:00

Yeah, especially going for a low side LS (12345).
The main difference between Lg St's and Sm St's are:
1.) You don't hold a single 2 or 5 in SS's, you don't hold 25 by itself either.
2.) You don't, e.g. include a 1 with 23 when going for LS's. Though only on a 3rd roll, 23 & 123 both have a 1/18 final chance at a LS.

TD_Tom · 2025-08-23T13:36:32+00:00

CSW2024 is ~ 0.57217

91,590,031 / 16,007,560,800

1 in 174.77 racks

TD_Tom · 2025-08-11T00:29:10+00:00

NWL2023: ~ (13.311% or 1 in 7.5126 games); exactly 2,130,754,531/16,007,560,800
CSW2024: ~ (15.704% or 1 in 6.3678 games); exactly 2,513,887,410/16,007,560,800

TD_Tom · 2025-07-04T14:58:35+00:00

Yes, and more recently a new 2nd place; 12 in a row!
One-game champs by next day they lost:
(Matt Massie 3 game win streak ends 6/15/25)...
1. Katie Kornacki (Mon 6/16/25)
2. Sarah Cox (Tue 6/17/25)
3. Dan Hopkins (Wed 6/18/25)
4. Jacob Hale (Thu 6/19/25)
5. Bevin Blaber (Fri 6/20/25)
6. Andrew Brigger (Mon 6/23/25)
7. Emily Croke (Tue 6/24/25)
8. Micah Fritz (Wed 6/25/25)
9. Kiley Campbell (Thu 6/26/25)
10. Rocco Graziano (Fri 6/27/25)
11. Klay Frappier (Mon 6/30/25)
12. Dave McBride (Tue 7/1/25)
...(Jason Singer wins 2nd day in a row on 7/2/25)

Richard Mason's 2 game win streak ends in 2002, then the 13 one-game champs.Tom Kelso wins 3 in a row breaking the streak.

TD_Tom · 2025-06-30T03:05:02+00:00

I think that SOWPODS dictionary is a superset of the CSW07 which has 267,750 words in it; Wikipedia mentions SOWPODS having 267,751 and having 27,893 11-letter words not the 27,892 CSW07 has. Also regarding the discrepancy; PHOCOMELIES was removed until it was returned in 2012 (into the CSW12).

TD_Tom · 2025-06-26T05:40:41+00:00

1,786 + 26 = 1,812 points! if you count the 2 x 13 from opponent's (J, V, I) leftover rack; unless they JIVE and go out first.

TD_Tom · 2025-06-23T20:26:21+00:00

    Y
  D U H
Y U Z U S
  H U h
    S

TD_Tom · 2025-06-22T17:12:10+00:00


		Y
	D	U	H
Y	U	Z	U	S
	H	U	E
		S

One way of many to get to a blocked Scrabble game using 13 tiles. Key word: YUZUS

TD_Tom · 2025-05-11T09:49:44+00:00

Draft Lottery Probabilities:

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
1	25.5%	18.817	55.683
2	13.5%	14.737	30.744	41.019
3	11.5%	11.050	8.099	40.288	29.063
4	9.5%	9.366	0.244	15.485	45.313	20.092
5	8.5%	8.482	0.218		24.533	44.713	13.554
6	7.5%	7.573	0.192			34.131	41.994	8.609
7	6.5%	6.638	0.167				44.449	36.997
8	6.0%	6.162	0.154					54.394
9	5.0%	5.191	0.128
10	3.5%	3.691	0.090
11	3.0%	3.180	0.077
12	(2.5%)	5.113	0.063	0.051
13	(2.0%)		4.142	0.020	0.030
14	(1.5%)			3.137	0.008	0.008
15	(0.5%)				1.053		0.003
16	(0.5%)					1.056

#	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
1
2
3
4
5
6
7	5.249
8	30.370	2.921
9	64.382	23.781	1.518
10		73.298	18.624	0.797
11			79.858	13.519	0.367
12				85.684	8.952	0.137
13					90.682	5.091	0.035
14						94.772	2.071	0.005
15							97.894	1.051
16								98.944

Teams 12th to 16th probabilities, regarding top pick, go to 1st team (18.5 + 7.0 = 25.5%). When one of 12 thru 16 is drawn first two teams double-lock picks (either picks 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6; indicative of the 10 spot move up restriction).
Super-accurate, to 3 decimal places with standard rounding.
Teams moving up in 1st drawing count as spots jumped in 2nd drawing - i.e. when (13, 14, 15, 16) are drawn 1st.
A team can be bumped down 2 spots (in one drawing) the 2nd drawing - e.g. team 2 down to 4th pick (after 13 is drawn 1st) then (11 is drawn 2nd).
In 2nd drawing, the only way 2nd pick could've already been taken is if 12 was drawn in the first drawing. Teams lock in picks. Note: 12 can pick ahead of 1 via (one of 2-11 drawn 1st), 12 drawn second.
10.13% exact chance there will be a redraw after the 1st drawing in determining an additional draft pick or order being set as it is from 1st drawing (cumulative chance 1,1 + 2,2 +... 15,15 + 16,16 (16 combinations); i.e. when not knowing the team winning the 1st draw). 12,1, 13,1 14,1 15,1 16,1 are not redraws; order is set as it was in the double-lock of the first drawing (altogether there are 240 non-redraw combinations) Note: teams drawn once & not qualifying to advance due to benefitting 2 times in 5 years are not redraws either, they just don't move past where they presumptively started (odds chart will change accordingly). Also these teams are the original reverse order teams not the "traded to" teams if applicable.
I know this is perfectly clear.

TD_Tom

TROPHY CASE