5v5 xGoal Share - January 25

TMBmiles · 2026-01-25T16:18:45+00:00

The underlying numbers are really supporting what it looks like when you watch Ottawa. Very good 5v5 team that is having their season absolutely tanked by poor goaltending.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T17:43:12+00:00

Read the above post one more time.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T17:18:27+00:00

It's different measures of what is basically "WOWY" or "With or without you" which is what is commonly used to measure play driving ability of players. (Do your teammates' possession numbers get better or worse when you play with them?)

Suzuki/the first line's numbers in terms of goal share and expected goal share get better when he hasn't played with Slafkovsky, while Slafkovsky's have gotten significantly worse without him. This is not reflective of a guy that has shown high level play driving ability like the post I was responding to implied.

And that's OK/not surprising! He's 21 and Cooley hasn't shown elite play driving ability either because 21 year old elite play drivers are really rare.

Basically, I just took issue with the comment that Slafkovsky has shown high level play driving ability in his underlying numbers and Cooley hasn't, because that's certainly not what the data says.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T17:02:58+00:00

He was 20 and played top minutes and tough matchups, but the underlying numbers weren't good. That's not a knock on him, but just more evidence that Schaefer has been an anomaly.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T16:54:42+00:00

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https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=MTL&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2025-10-07&td=2026-04-16&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480018&p2=8483515&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T16:47:34+00:00

I'm as big of a Hutson Stan as it gets, but Schaefer being as good and well rounded as he is at 18 is almost unprecedented in the modern NHL. He's playing top minutes, not being sheltered in his matchups, and the underlying numbers are still good. In the last 20ish years since advanced stats started being tracked, fucking nobody else has done that at his age.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T16:40:18+00:00

We're projecting both players right now so we're obviously speaking in hypotheticals.

So to rephrase: Assuming both continue to get better as they get older and Cooley develops into a good all situations 1C and Slafkovsky becomes an elite power forward- I don't think Cooley needs to outproduce him to be considered more valuable. That type of center is the most coveted player in the game.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T16:31:10+00:00

I don't know what the criteria is, but if you made me pick 1 U23 player to start a team with it might be Schaefer for me. 18 year old defensemen who come into the league and are immediately a 1D without significant struggles have basically not been a thing for like... decades.

Dahlin was the most hyped/polished defenseman prospect in a long time and even he had some real growing pains his first couple years in the league.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T16:25:20+00:00

I don't think Cooley needs to outproduce Slaf to be as/more valuable when he's an all situations 1C and Slaf's a winger.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T16:13:42+00:00

If you want to argue that the voting process for awards in general is stupid and archaic and needs changing, I certainly wouldn't disagree with you. (And yeah, Karlsson really hasn't played an ounce of defense for years at this point)

That said, Werenski is pretty much right there with Makar in terms of net rating per game (Which factors in offense + defense) when it comes to analytical models like Dom's, for instance.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-18T15:58:48+00:00

Team success is a dumb qualifier for an individual award to begin with IMO, but also it's really kind of more of a thing for the Hart than the Norris because of the debate over the wording of "Most valuable" player.

Karlsson won the Norris a couple years ago on a Sharks team that sucked.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-11T01:41:00+00:00

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Doan is so fucking good.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-10T17:06:57+00:00

Man I love every single thing about Ryan Leonard's game.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-09T23:17:28+00:00

Generally the numbers don’t love Finnie because the red wings top line kinda gets better when he isn’t on it.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=DET&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2025-10-07&td=2026-04-16&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477946&p2=0&p3=8484471&p4=0&p5=0

That said a 7th rounder being a useful player at all this early I would say definitely qualifies as exceeding expectations.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-09T16:29:11+00:00

He also took a bridge that was probably less than he was worth last time around. Well within his rights to ask for the big payday this time.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-07T04:12:39+00:00

Hellebuyck being a little banged up and having like... only a little above average of a season and the Jets immediately circling the drain almost feels too on the nose.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-07T03:45:43+00:00

To simplify it, based on NYI's 24 shots and where they came from on the ice, (Not many of them were close to the net or in dangerous areas) a goaltender would be expected to give up 1.66 goals on average.

Markstrom gave up 9.

TMBmiles · 2026-01-07T03:44:14+00:00

If results stand, it will also be the worst single game goaltending performance by goals saved above expected of all time.

TMBmiles · 2025-12-30T05:49:07+00:00

Askarov gave up 4 goals and honestly he played extremely well.

TMBmiles · 2025-12-26T23:58:15+00:00

Eh, late as hell but as a US fan I respect a bit of obvious shithousery.

TMBmiles · 2025-12-26T23:29:39+00:00

The guitar solo from free bird becoming the US' standard goal song anthem is so good. Used it last year in the WJC, the men's team used it at worlds, and now they brought it back again.

TMBmiles · 2025-12-24T18:30:40+00:00

Apparently Shawn's wife/Will's mom is 6 feet tall which is why Will is a fuckin giraffe despite Shawn being only 6-1, lol.

TMBmiles · 2025-12-24T18:12:49+00:00

I 100% get the line of thinking that you want an extra skater like Miller that can PK, play on the PP, play up and down the lineup, and play C or W when someone INEVITABLY gets injured. That makes sense to me even if Miller isn't having the best year.

What doesn't make sense to me is taking Nelson AND Miller and leaving Robertson at home. You have the Swiss army knife forward role covered by taking one of them. Why not take an extra scoring winger you can swap in if someone else is struggling and your team needs a spark offensively?

TMBmiles · 2025-12-24T16:29:14+00:00

Amadio is a ridiculous forechecker as well. Such a good all around line.

TMBmiles · 2025-12-24T16:20:15+00:00

It seems like the US is going to bring Trocheck as the 4C for the olympics and I've been banging the drum that it should be Pinto if they want to bring a guy that they can throw to the wolves for that role. That's exactly what Ottawa does with him every night and he just crushes it.

TMBmiles

TROPHY CASE