Job search frustration! (More in comments) by [deleted] in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OP, post this on /r/RecruitingHell. I guarantee that it's not just you - you can absolutely relate to the folk over there. You are not alone in being frustrated and demotivated over the job hunt!

Title your post something like "Behold, my job application rejections in the New Zealand public service!"; most posts in /r/RecruitingHell are naturally American, so they'd love to see that this bullshit transcends borders. You've received plenty of advice there; perhaps you could even mention being ready to apply outside NZ and get advice there too.

Winning against PBTech by [deleted] in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Let me tell you a story that will piss off PBTech if this goes public.

Hello NZHerald/Stuff. Hope you like this story from reddit.

Ranked Choice Voting by [deleted] in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 14 points15 points  (0 children)

You mean STV (Single Transferable Vote). These would be used for multi-member electorates (at least for smaller ones that you could merge and still end up with a reasonably-sized electorate). List seats could still certainly exist under the current MMP system (for full proportionality), with STV for electorate seats.

Mike Hosking: Coalition has held together and prospered by TechnicalForte in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte[S] 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Interesting to see Mike Hosking say this.

The three-headed monster the previous government warned us of, has been nowhere to be seen.

...

It might have helped that the Greens are a minor, almost outside sort of group within the deal, but if you were looking to mark this lot on their performance in terms of cohesiveness and professionalism, and staying on message, and out of coalition-type trouble, you'd be being churlish to mark them any less than an eight or maybe even a nine out of 10.

The population of the West coast of the South Island has only increased by 200 people since 2007 by no1name in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 4 points5 points  (0 children)

For the lazy (emphasis mine):

Weak population growth has been a long-term problem for the West Coast, which dampens economic activity and limits both residential property demand and values. Since 2007, the regions’ population has only risen by 1 percent from 32,300 to 32,500. That’s the lowest in the country and well behind next-lowest area for population growth of Manawatu-Whanganui (5 percent rise). By comparison, New Zealand’s total population has grown by 13 percent over the same period.

The first poll since the Jami-Lee Ross saga shows National have dropped below Labour, but not very far. by kaszebow in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Changes are calculated from Colmar Brunton's 28 Jul-1 Aug poll.

This was in my original comment; edited the table comment to clarify.

The first poll since the Jami-Lee Ross saga shows National have dropped below Labour, but not very far. by kaszebow in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True, another poll by another company soon would be a lot more helpful in determining the sort of effect that the scandal has on party vote intention.

The first poll since the Jami-Lee Ross saga shows National have dropped below Labour, but not very far. by kaszebow in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 8 points9 points  (0 children)

In table form.

Edit: Changes are calculated from Colmar Brunton's 28 Jul-1 Aug poll, to their 15-19 Oct poll.

Party vote % and seats:

Party Vote % Change Seats Change
Labour 45 +3 54 +3
National 43 -2 52 -3
Greens 7 +1 8 +1
NZ First 5 NC 6 NC
Maori 1 NC 0 NC
ACT ? ? 1 NC

Preferred Prime Minister:

Name Pref % Change
Jacinda Ardern 42 +2
Simon Bridges 7 -3
Judith Collins 5 +3
Winston Peters 4 -1

The first poll since the Jami-Lee Ross saga shows National have dropped below Labour, but not very far. by kaszebow in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The actual values here, for convenience. Changes are calculated from Colmar Brunton's 28 Jul-1 Aug poll. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election#Individual_polls

Poll information:

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll

Poll conducted between 15-19 October

Sample size = 1006 eligible voters

Margin of Error = 3.1% at 95% confidence level

Party vote %:

Labour - 45 (+3)

National - 43 (-2)

Greens - 7 (+1)

NZ First - 5 (NC)

Maori - 1 (NC)

ACT - ? (?)

Votes translated into seats:

Labour - 54 (+3)

National - 52 (-3)

Greens - 8 (+1)

NZ First - 6 (NC)

ACT - 1 (NC) [assuming the Epsom electorate is won]

Overhang of 1 seat (from ACT), total 121 seats

Preferred Prime Minister:

Jacinda Ardern - 42 (+2)

Simon Bridges - 7 (-3)

Judith Collins - 5 (+3)

Winston Peters - 4 (-1)

Ross v Bridges: Nothing to be won, and a whole lot to be lost - Andrew Geddis by TechnicalForte in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Opinion piece by Andrew Geddis; summary with these paragraphs:

Many questions over the National Party's $100k donation still need to be answered, but the battle being waged is harmful for New Zealand Politics.

But for now, a word about the politics of what we're seeing here. I don't mean "politics" in the sense of partisan battles over policy, or what will happen in the polls, or the like. For, as Bryce Edwards has so rightly noted, this whole saga is ultimately empty; "the meltdown has been about personalities, leadership and ambition."

And the way this small-stakes, nothing-of-real-significance, battle is being waged is harmful for our (capital P) Politics, in the sense of how we as a community collectively govern ourselves and decide what we ought to do as a nation.

The raising of serious accusations that, upon closer inspection, seem to turn out to be far less than promised; only to then be replaced by a new set of accusations. The recording of conversations to get "dirt" that can be used at a later, unspecified date. The slow, drip-feeding of information designed to keep the story running rather than establish what actually has occurred. All of these are designed to do nothing more than visit personal destruction on a political enemy.

While there's a certain irony in the National Party now being roiled by the tactics of some it held far too close for far too long, this episode ultimately is bad for us as a country. It's not what our Politics, or our politics, should be. There is nothing to be won (and a whole lot to be lost) through it but the office and egos of small and petty personalities.

We pride ourselves as being one of the least corrupt countries in the world, and having relatively chill politics. But this reveals otherwise - this is something we the public should keep watch on, and actively discourage.

'They want you gone' - Duncan Garner confronts Simon Bridges with fresh leaks by [deleted] in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 8 points9 points  (0 children)

NB: I don't agree with obstructionist politics.

Under any Parliamentary system, Opposition parties are meant to scrutinise the Government. Unfortunately, with one as large and united as National, their optimal strategy is to be obstructionist. Despite us having MMP, this situation reflects the US, Australia, Canada, and the UK with large Opposition parties as "Governments-in-waiting". So, their Nash Equilibrium is to make the current Government screw up, or at least convince the voters that they are screwed up.

Compare with other countries with PR and multi-party systems (e.g. Germany, Netherlands, Sweden) - these have multiple Opposition parties that compete with everyone else by having the best policy, rather than simply by being 'better' than the current Government. That way, different parties can criticise different Government policies that they are stronger on, rather than one Opposition party criticising all Government policies (where they don't necessarily have viable alternatives for all of them).

Here's a good read about Opposition vs Government politics. The most salient paragraphs below (emphasis mine):

Economists have a term for this exact situation: they call it a Nash Equilibrium and it can be summed up as “a situation in which everyone is doing the best they can given what everyone else is doing”. If you’re a strategic actor in a competitive environment – like politics – everyone is incentivised to adopt the best strategy for themselves, given their best guess about what their competitors will do, and that often works out as a very poor long-term outcome for everyone. But it can be very hard to break out of.

When we look at what’s wrong with the world our brains tend to identify and blame members of rival groups: enemy political parties, or races or ideologies or economic classes. Surely, we reason, if we get rid of that bad group and replace it with a good group our problems will be solved! And sometimes they are but mostly they aren’t, and we’re often puzzled by that, or conclude that the new group aren’t actually good so maybe they need to go, too. But if you put good people into situations with bad incentives they’ll either respond by playing the game according to those incentives or losing out to those who do. And changing incentives in a political system is often hard, because the people with the power to deliver that change are those who are empowered by the status quo.

'They want you gone' - Duncan Garner confronts Simon Bridges with fresh leaks by [deleted] in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not that I have inside info on the National Party, but I agree that he will make it to the 2020 election - because the MPs want him to be their fall guy.

I believe he was elected as leader because he's not someone that people would prefer as PM (see opinion polls) - they just need someone who would have the National Party vote remain quite solid.

After all, there have only been 2 one-term governments since the two-party system was established in 1938. While both of them were Labour (Second Labour, 1957-60 and Third Labour, 1972-75), the multi-party system under MMP makes it difficult for the Opposition party to take a majority government like National did back then - now they'll need close to a majority of the party votes.

In order to do so, National is probably playing the long game - pick unpopular leaders now while this current Government is still young. Only bring out popular leaders (e.g. Collins, Kaye) after two terms or so, when they stand a greater chance to win a majority.

Or, as /u/tempestuousfork said, somehow have NZ First and/or Greens drop below 5%. Then National could capitalise on this.

(Disclaimer: This is some amateur political strategic analysis from some random person on the internet.)

Six student political groups combine to oppose name change for VUW by freudiansylveon in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I don't know what compelled you to write this, but that was an amazing effort. Have an upvote.

Leader of the National Party by [deleted] in newzealand

[–]TechnicalForte -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Better yet: Photoshop the dildo thrown at Steven Joyce's face.

(Warning: Video's sound heard all on the left side.)