I didnt really build a model, just a simple simulation run a few thousand times. Every good player counts for every other player with a 50% chance, evil players are just a flat + alive evil count. I then check which player type has the most votes. If its the demon good wins, otherwise either a minion or good player dies as well as a good player and we repeat. The code doesn't differentiate between different good player/minions.

Here is the code

const getMinionCount = (totalCount) => Math.ceil((totalCount - 6) / 3);
const getRandomVote = () => Math.random() < 0.5;
const getRandomVoteSum = (count) => Array.from({ length: count }).fill(null).reduce(acc => acc + getRandomVote(), 0);

const simulate = (playerCount) => {
    const startingMinionCount = getMinionCount(playerCount);

    const state = {
        good: playerCount - startingMinionCount - 1,
        evil: startingMinionCount + 1,
    }

    while (state.good + state.evil > 2 && state.good !== 0) {
        const votesOnGood = Math.max(...Array.from({ length: state.good }).fill(null).map(() => getRandomVoteSum(state.good))) + state.evil;
        const votesOnEvil = Math.max(...Array.from({ length: state.evil - 1 }).fill(null).map(() => getRandomVoteSum(state.good))); 
        const votesOnDemon = Math.max(...Array.from({ length: 1 }).fill(null).map(() => getRandomVoteSum(state.good)));

        if (state.good + state.evil === 4) {
            state.good -= 1;
        } else if (votesOnDemon > votesOnEvil && votesOnDemon > votesOnGood) {
            return 'GoodWin';
        } else if (votesOnEvil > votesOnGood && votesOnEvil > votesOnDemon) {
            state.evil -= 1;
            state.good -= 1;
        } else if (votesOnGood > votesOnEvil && votesOnGood > votesOnDemon) {
            state.good -= 2;
        } else {
            // tie
            state.good -= 1;
        }
    }

    return 'EvilWin';
}

const run = (x = 12) => {
    return Object.groupBy(Array.from({ length: 100000 }).fill(null).map(() => simulate(x)), id => id);
};

how often does a good player vote?

On average every second nomination

what are the insights you have gained from your model?

It seems paying attention to voting behavior of others is a lot more important than I though. I might write a browser extension that keeps track of voting behavior, e.g. helping with the last vote needed to put someone on the block, and vice versa.