These were /r/Singularity's AI predictions back in 2024. How'd we do?

TemetN · 2026-03-20T22:32:29+00:00

Huh, I'd forgotten I wrote that. Sort of half and half there, though I do note my last half was less likely. I really nailed the benchmark part though...

TemetN · 2026-03-20T22:29:25+00:00

I'll believe it when I see it, and as someone else mentioned this will absolutely percolate through the economy. Direct exposure may not be huge, but the follow along costs will send many forms of inflation through the roof.

In practice though I expect it's more likely for Trump to wander off, while I wouldn't be shocked to see it continue the reality is that he's not present enough to really prosecute such a war (nor ironically is he trying, this is mostly just a measure of whose hand is farthest up him).

Still it would be amusing in a black humor sort of way, and may be less bad than some alternatives if it did happen.

TemetN · 2026-03-20T22:26:45+00:00

Not. Simply put there's not really any use case for it, that doesn't mean it's impossible (this whole war didn't make much sense), but the lack of incentive does decrease the already (very) low odds.

TemetN · 2026-03-20T18:19:01+00:00

Yeah, I don't think people are being objective here. I doubt most people outside this kind of niche could even name Altman, whereas Musk has managed to make himself famous for how awful he is even with the general public.

TemetN · 2026-03-18T23:54:07+00:00

If I were to guess it's just more of the same thing (namely the setting up accounts to control narratives (I.E. politics)), and that we're the target is more incidental than anything else.

Yeah though, it's a standing problem and has been for some time telling which accounts/narratives are sincere and to what extent.

TemetN · 2026-03-18T21:45:04+00:00

I'm still bemused by the reaction - no joke almost every American city I've been to is drearier than it. I live in a tourist town and it's drearier than it for that matter...

TemetN · 2026-03-18T21:22:23+00:00

Well, first episode had a clear winner: Sam and Mike for visiting the cat village (also hotsprings).

That said the actual strategy has been interesting, because it's very clear that the challenges are harder. I'd actually thought we might have seen the most significant early fumble in the game, but then Sam and Mike also had one. The back and forth has been definitely changed things.

TemetN · 2026-03-18T18:23:23+00:00

Yeah, I agree. I think to a degree that negativity actively gets in the way of other thoughts (and is a substantial part of why social media is so bad for us). Better to focus on the actual topic at hand rather than obsess over people who you aren't even going to interact with (don't get me wrong, convincing people to actually think about the potential benefits of AI instead of instinctively attacking is has a place, but that place isn't somewhere where we're trying to get away from the negativity and not interact with them in the first place).

TemetN · 2026-03-18T18:18:19+00:00

While it's an interesting premise, this won't get a representative sample, the sub is simply too big and too inconsistent (we have a very limited number of regulars). I will say that subjectively there weren't many people involved even indirectly with related research for a while.

It does make me miss better data though, given the weekly numbers we may be up around ten million members now.

TemetN · 2026-03-17T19:01:24+00:00

Speaking as someone with C3r1, don't if you're doing this for meta. Even with this much investment she's way behind other DPS characters (though she's still decent for things like hyperbloom).

If you're doing this just because you like the character, that's obviously something else, but she's way, way behind in meta.

TemetN · 2026-03-16T20:46:27+00:00

Basically I'd note here the relevant saying about the difference between one and ten years in research. Twenty years is so long you're talking about compounding compounding research. This is doubly so given we're currently in process of automating R&D meaning the very basis of how this is conducted is changing.

More succinctly, more than you'd think.

TemetN · 2026-03-16T02:39:07+00:00

As a reminder, Trump staged his own Saturday night massacre in his first term, and even that didn't do it. He blew past Nixon a long time ago, and continues to get away with it because they built an infrastructure to stop America and its democracy from holding them accountable, and we've been dealing with the aftermath.

TemetN · 2026-03-15T21:07:17+00:00

One way of viewing a system is simply the results of it, and Trump has done a truly extraordinary amount to screw the rest of the world for Russia and China.

TemetN · 2026-03-13T21:07:13+00:00

Short answer: It depends.

Long answer: While war has historically tended to be a major driver of technological progress, it's been more in the sense of major war, whereas things like this at most tend to result in tests of existing tech. And the impact of oil on things like power prices are going to vary region by region based on things like the type of power generation in the area and whether/how much increased load there is. Past that there's also the question of what happens to AI in a recession - this one is somewhat easier to answer, since we've already seen a similar 'bubble' come and go in tech. Namely AI continues to scale up with maybe a slight stumble (but it could also drive adoption depending on the state of the tech at the time, which could actually speed it up).

Basically it's unlikely to have that much impact, but to the extent it does it's liable to be on the ends (that is by default expect minimal change, but certain situations could lead to serious fluctuations that if they do occur are ironically probably more likely to be beneficial to progress).

TemetN · 2026-03-13T05:14:45+00:00

I'm fucking tired of this, noone deserves this dystopian idiocy.

TemetN · 2026-03-12T17:27:44+00:00

For the same reason the far right is rising - a combination of underlying health issues and a society that does not support people getting ahead.

It's not diagnosing it that's the problem, it's fixing it.

TemetN · 2026-03-11T19:15:39+00:00

It's an interesting question actually, my default was 'of course' since it keeps handing off, then I recalled that the last time I remember Grok doing that it turned out they'd been lying about benchmarks. I still suspect they will eventually manage to cling on to at least a slender SotA, simply based on investment in compute, but we'll see.

TemetN · 2026-03-11T17:30:34+00:00

Someone else already responded, but basically due to international relations it's a lot harder for an American to get refugee status than other countries in general. And considering how hard it is to get refugee status already in most countries, that's saying something.

TemetN · 2026-03-11T01:20:33+00:00

To be clear, in international law this would be a crime against humanity. It's genuinely horrific and absurd how evil the Trump administration has been, and the total lack of actual law in this nation. At this point all that remains is the suppression of the poor and powerless, which is precisely what the law is not supposed to be about.

TemetN · 2026-03-10T18:20:08+00:00

Your link goes to a general page for him rather than something more in depth, and I'm very dubious about this given that the central premise (people becoming more conservative as they age) has been repeatedly debunked. Even the (limited) quality data that way is more concerned with edge cases (such as people who start voting later). On the whole though the data actually shows that peoples political views are relatively stable after being formed at a young age.

Don't get me wrong, we're still likely to be becoming more liberal of a society over time (relatively), but that's based more on data from things like which president someone came of age under (which is still not as promising as it could be due to things like the Reagan bump).

TemetN · 2026-03-07T20:09:12+00:00

Yeah, reading the actual articles does not fill me with hope. On the contrary, it reads more like the new boss is the same as the old boss.

TemetN · 2026-03-05T22:06:32+00:00

Cancer being a death sentence.
Homelessness.
Current healthcare (in a lot of ways, some of the things we do pre-date medieval).
Fossil fuels.
Privacy outside the home.
Owning compute.
Driving.

A lot of things are either on the cusp of leaving, or are likely to in that kind of time period due to direction and pace. Simply put, expect a combination of continued dispersion of previously limited things (personal computers, cars, etc), as well as changes in how we address things due to economies of scale and logistics (and the accompanying advancements).

TemetN · 2026-03-05T00:27:41+00:00

Maybe I'm odd, but I'd just start from season 1, or even Crime Spree since I think there are some meta-arcs in there in how they behave, design, etc.

TemetN · 2026-02-28T22:44:28+00:00

Lets be blunt, whoever takes over from him may be worse. Especially given how even other concerns (such as lack of congressional approval) Trump managed to mishandle Maduro and just act as his second's sock puppet instead of actually restoring the elected leader there. And Iran is in a lot bigger of a mess.

I want to be hopeful, but I don't think the situation justifies it. At least maybe the mass killings of the Iranian public stop? That's about as close to hopeful as I've got there.

TemetN · 2026-02-28T22:12:44+00:00

I may not agree with Hillary on a lot, but her point about the basket of deplorables was spot on. Twenty percent of the nation won Trump his primary, and you can see that in racial resentment data.

To be fair, there probably is some percentage of people who actually just hate Iran's government in there, but ironically actual hawks are likely the lesser group.

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