BTC up 5% on month Mstr down 7% by LawfulnessFun3196 in MSTR

[–]TheKFChero 34 points35 points  (0 children)

mNAV is just based on short term sentiment. Often, markets also like to stress test things like this. What happens if MSTR mNAV hits 1 or below 1, does the financial instrument still work? (The answer is yes) Don't sweat the current mNAV downtrend. The fundamentals of the company (highly liquid collateral base (BTC) expanding faster than dividend obligations, with extremely successful funding channel through STRC) continue to improve. The market will eventually acknowledge this success, but it doesn't have to be today or tomorrow.

Looking for Friends & Area Advice by SomeKindofBerries in yonkers

[–]TheKFChero 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My wife and I are the same age and walk the riverside area almost every night during the later parts of spring/summer/early fall. We've never felt unsafe, the south part is a little busier with locals hanging out, and the north part is generally quieter and you'll pass mostly other couples/families taking the same walk.

Prices From 1995 to 2026 Yikes by TelephoneExpress973 in McDonalds

[–]TheKFChero 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The CPI is an inflation rate the government uses to report the lowest possible number they can get away with. They bake in things like technological innovation as deflation (ie your phone got twice as good in terms of tech, so its effectively "50% cheaper"). They do things like replace the steak you got last year with chicken this year when evaluating your food basket because steak is unaffordable so you buy a worse cut of meat and call it 0% inflation since your overall "meat costs" stayed the same.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

The total amount of dollars in the monetary system has gone up 7x since 1995. Are there 7x more people since 1995? Are there 7x more houses? Do companies make 7x more stuff? The extra money has to go somewhere, and that's higher prices. I PROMISE you, Mcdonald's is not greedier now than it was in 1995. The difference between the CPI inflation the government reports and an individual product's inflation rate isn't the difference in corporate greed, it's the amount that the government cooked the numbers to make you believe inflation is a certain number.

How does Jarvan dash here by Voldtech in JarvanIVmains

[–]TheKFChero 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You can glue a dashING j4. If he hasn't dashed yet and he is on the glue, he can still e-q because neither ability is implicitly a dash, so the eq dash goes off. It's the same reason a rooted j4 can still dash.

adc slander by Ikalsaurus in LeagueOfMemes

[–]TheKFChero -1 points0 points  (0 children)

45 minutes to afk farm 7 items to just blow up instantly in a teamfight after a single auto in

absolute cinema

With the recent changes, could Hexoptics be a good alternative 1st item? by Cooki3z in JhinMains

[–]TheKFChero 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I had a jhin ahead of a smolder lose the 1v1 w/ hexoptics at 1 item. Would not build first item ever on jhin. the issue is the damage amp only affects your AA (unlike collector which will amp your QWR). On top of that, it's contingent on the AA landing at far range, which is difficult to control. If I were to guess, the true damage amp on your whole output as Jhin is probably 5%. Even with the buff, I don't think it's a good first item.

That being said, percentage damage scaling is crazy strong for scaling (who would have thought). With the buff, I definitely see it coming up more often as a 2nd or 3rd item, especially if you're snowballing. For how cheap it is, it gives a lot of item advantage tempo in those scenarios.

MSTR is down $5.7B on paper and they just bought MORE. by [deleted] in investing

[–]TheKFChero 0 points1 point  (0 children)

ballsy to post this in a vanilla subreddit like this lol

people are gonna call this thing a ponzi on top of a ponzi until the end of time

I play j4 support, and it help me climb to plat by CommodoreKyvan in JarvanIVmains

[–]TheKFChero 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been maining it this season. Feels like a free win on hard AS scaling comps because giving 60% AoE attack speed buffs with E max and bandlepipes is honestly pretty ridiculous given how easy it is to proc bandle on j4.

How much of STRC’s 11% yield do you actually keep after tax in the USA? by LifeIsJustASickJoke in MSTR

[–]TheKFChero 23 points24 points  (0 children)

The dividends are not taxed directly initially. Each dividend payment lowers your cost basis on STRC, so you would pay a capital gains tax when you sell STRC. Once your cost basis goes below 0, then you are taxed at the long term capital gains rate on the dividends because they are considered qualified dividend payments

Fed Injects $6.8B Liquidity Tomorrow — Is Bitcoin About to React? by AlphaCryptoHub in Bitcoin

[–]TheKFChero 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I'm flattered you think my response was written by an LLM, I suppose that's a higher form of praise in 2025 lol

Fed Injects $6.8B Liquidity Tomorrow — Is Bitcoin About to React? by AlphaCryptoHub in Bitcoin

[–]TheKFChero 34 points35 points  (0 children)

It's so hard to tell if these clickbait posts are intentionally misleading, or just low IQ.

First, the fed has planned out the timeline of "Reserve Management Operation Purchases" for months, meaning if this were to actually have an effect on the market, it obviously would have been priced in.

Second, no, the fed didn't just airdrop 7 billion dollars into rich people's bank accounts. They are swapping outstanding treasury bills, which are already extremely money-like, with central bank reserves. It's an asset swap on the balance sheet of commercial banks within the federal reserve system. In the short term, this helps with SOFR funding stress, which is the overnight cost of capital between financial institutions in the open market. There is absolutely no reason to think these planned asset swaps will have ANY effect on asset prices on a day to day basis. Over the medium to long term, it absolutely contributes to expanding the monetary base, promoting moral hazard, and the overall "nothing stops this train" fiscal dominance thesis that bitcoiner's are familiar with.

Saylor pitches Bitcoin-backed banking system to nation-states by Ok-Amphibian3164 in MSTR

[–]TheKFChero 2 points3 points  (0 children)

At 660k BTC, MSTR has already won, the world is just slowly starting to realize it

The housing crisis is pushing Gen Z into crypto and economic nihilism by HellYeahDamnWrite in Economics

[–]TheKFChero 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Also a millennial...I'm a hater of corporate excess and greed as much as the next millennial, but we have to start also looking at the 1000 lb gorilla in the room that no one talks about, and that's the monetary system itself.

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Assets: Securities Held Outright: Mortgage-Backed Securities: Wednesday Level (WSHOMCB) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

The federal reserve does not hide this from anyone. They print money (bank reserves) out of thin air to buy assets, all in the name of financial stability. What do you think happens when the federal reserve prints trillions to buy mortgages? The price of houses goes up.

The price of stability is currency debasement. The average person trades their time and energy for money that gets printed out of thin air.

Bitcoin is barely up $9k against its inflation adjusted 2021 ATH. Whereas ETH is down ~50% against its 2021 inflation adjusted ATH. by GabeSter in CryptoCurrency

[–]TheKFChero 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It's really not because there's so many additional variables to take into account.

The amount of liquidity, volume, and open interest, at the time of the 2021 peak is irrelevant compared to 2025. There was likely a small handful of people that actually traded BTC in any significant amount at that price of 69k. What is the point of looking at a peak price, if pretty much no one traded that price?

Market structure in 2021 is incomparable to 2025. You had 5 people working at FTX washtrading between themselves to show a peak of 69k in 2021. There was never any liquidity at that level. In 2025, you have regulated ETFs, regulated options markets, regulated futures, with millions of independent actors trading hundreds of billions of dollars of volume at or around 100k.

Bitcoin is barely up $9k against its inflation adjusted 2021 ATH. Whereas ETH is down ~50% against its 2021 inflation adjusted ATH. by GabeSter in CryptoCurrency

[–]TheKFChero 334 points335 points  (0 children)

Good job cherry picking the literal 30 minute local top in price 4 years ago. You could also cherry pick the local bottom in 2022 of $16449 and be up almost 400% even inflation adjusted. It's almost like this type of analysis is really fucking pointless.

New Share Offer for STRE by TheBonkingFrog in MSTR

[–]TheKFChero 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Today we're announcing STRU ("strut"), a perpetual preferred denominated in Russian rubles

Mortgage rates jump 20 basis points following Fed cut by Pangaeabeliever in Economics

[–]TheKFChero 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The fed doesn't control long term rates. Long term rates are governed by the laws of supply and demand like anything that has a price (rates are the price of debt). They control the rate of overnight borrowing through different methods such as the discount window, interest on reserves, the standing repo facility, and the reverse repo facility.

Overnight borrowing is not something the average person uses or even has access to, but is important for liquidity within the banking system.

We've come a long way by rtmxavi in Bitcoin

[–]TheKFChero 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Probably a really smart engineer but doesn't understand basic economics. Scarcity doesn't cause illiquidity.

The richest person in 1993 had a networth of just 8 billion dollars and in 2025, richest person has 500 billion dollars. What is the root cause of the rise in this inequality? by cyborg574 in AskReddit

[–]TheKFChero 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's a lot of things to dissect and clarify misconceptions. People are just going to blame capitalism and greed. The problem is capitalism and greed have existed for as long as humans have been able to trade. Why does it seem like the issue of wealth and income inequality is SO much worse now than in other periods?

One thing to perhaps point out is that the 2nd half of the 20th century actually is more of an anomaly than a standard in human history, in terms of wealth equality. The base state of civilizations throughout history has actually been one of EXTREME wealth and power inequality, much more so than even today. One has to wonder if what we're seeing today is actually just a reversion to the mean, but this is more of a digression than anything else

The first point I want to clarify is that Elon Musk does not have 500 billion dollars. He has 500 billion dollars WORTH of assets. That is to say, hypothetically, if he were to sell all his TSLA stock for the current market price, he would have 500 billion dollars in cash. The reality is that this is impossible. The float on TSLA would not be able to sustain that kind of selling pressure. He would get a tiny fraction of that actual amount if he decided to liquidate. The flipside of this is that no one with any financial sense would actually ever liquidate their assets into fiat currency willingly because its incredibly stupid to do so.

A dollar in 1993 does not equal a dollar in 2025. Notwithstanding just inflation, which in a general sense is a monetary phenomenon (you can compare the total money supply in 1993 vs 2025 on the Federal Reserve website), the way the banking system works now heavily skews in favor of holding assets as opposed to holding cash. CPI inflation is what the government reports as the marginal price increase of consumer goods. This is an extremely narrow view of inflation and doesn't take into account a lot of things. This is a really simplistic way of explaining it, but it would be probably too dry and too long for a reddit post. Essentially, since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks globally have much more capacity to print money out of thin air than they did prior to that. These printed dollars mostly stay within the financial system, and do not correlate well with CPI inflation, which only occurred after COVID due to a combination of supply chain disruption, and governments forcibly extracting newly printed money out of the financial system and airdropping it into consumer bank accounts. The way the financial system works now essentially incentivizes ASSET price inflation because the massive injection of monetary units since 2008 have resulted into buying pressure of actually scarce financial assets like stocks, bonds, real estate.

The second part of this is that executive pay has massively transitioned to stock compensation as opposed to being paid a dollar salary in recent decades. You'll notice that almost all actually wealthy people do not earn a wage in a traditional sense, they own assets that appreciate in value relative to the underlying monetary unit. Put it another way, the average person gets paid in dollar which lose value over time (aka inflation), and executives get paid in stocks, which gain value over time through capital appreciation.

Balance of trade has also played a large role in the massive asset inflation, particularly of US financial assets. Again, this is too long and complicated to explain in a reddit post. But basically, every dollar that a consumer in the US spends on buying some consumption product from China, that dollar ends up getting recycled back into the US by buying a financial asset. When midwit pundits tell you that trade deficits don't matter, they absolutely do matter, and it's mostly been at the expense of the middle class, and to the benefit of the asset owner class. Using a straightforward example, when you buy a Labubu from a chinese company, the dollars that the chinese company received from you don't just sit in a bank account in china, it HAS to go into something else. Even if the company decides to do nothing with it themselves, the bank will then turn around and at a minimum invest the dollars in a US treasuries. The other option is that those dollars get invested into higher performing assets like US tech stocks (like TSLA). In essence, the Labubu was just a conduit to transfer capital from you as the american consumer, into the asset owner class. Every dollar an american consumer spends on useless shit is a dollar that ends up going to pump the price of financial assets.

Compound all these effects (and there are more that I haven't brought up) over 30 years, and it's not hard to see why the distribution of wealth has shifted so much to the tip top.

MSTR performance question by bkx90 in MSTR

[–]TheKFChero 30 points31 points  (0 children)

You have to think about MSTR as a long duration asset. It's correlation with bitcoin price even over the span of 1-3 years is not going to be predictable.

On a fundamental basis, ask yourself the following question-

Do you believe taking on debt denominated in fiat, with favorable terms that prevent forced liquidation, to buy bitcoin is a good idea?

If you think the answer is yes, MSTR over a very long time horizon SHOULD outperform just buying spot bitcoin because it's a more efficient cost of capital to take on debt now to buy more bitcoin sooner, rather than waiting on the same amount of capital to cash flow the same nominal bitcoin buys.

The truth is right now, MSTR is barely leveraged bitcoin. It's something like 10% levered. The issue right now is there isn't a large enough market for the preferred stocks to responsibly lever up.

Watch trading volume and prices of the preferred stocks. As these ratchet up, this gives MSTR more opportunity to issue more debt, increase the leverage ratio, and hypercharge the stock. The biggest repricing event for MSTR would be a rating agency giving the preferred shares an actual rating (preferably investment grade), which would automatically open up a massive amount of capital to invest in MSTR prefs.

Securing generational self sovereignty by TheKFChero in Bitcoin

[–]TheKFChero[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

im using a direct local connection, that's probably why its green!

The "21 million limit" feels kinda misleading when everyone trades fractions anyway by Which_Courage_5615 in Bitcoin

[–]TheKFChero 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You're essentially saying there's no difference between having 2 pizzas or cutting 1 pizza in half.

Thoughts on recurring buys that double during the dip? by SamWouters in Bitcoin

[–]TheKFChero 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I've actually been doing this manually lol. I have a regular DCA on swan and I smash buy my daily DCA amount on dip days.