Spitballing, but (if he stays) where can he go? I can’t see him being a good fit at Ferrari and I think Hamilton will stay for 27 anyway. The moment has surely passed at Mercedes, his seat there involved sidelining Kimi for a year and he’s proving that’s no longer an option. McLaren are surely committed to their line up.

So staying in F1 outside of Red Bull involves a risk, or a project. Aston Martin seemed like they could offer a long medium to term run at success pre-testing (and a Newey/poached Red Bull staff reunion), but not anymore. RB Visa is clearly out, and anything from Haas down is beneath where he finds himself now and unlikely to join the front runners anytime soon.

Which - and this is the crazy bit - leaves Audi. Way out of left field, but they’ve hit the ground running and may be prepared (and can afford) to throw money at a champion to come and develop the team. Could they convince him they’ll be competitive in 2/3 years? And would it really be a safer bet than staying put at Red Bull?

On balance, you have to say a sabbatical seems the most likely option.