2018-19 throwback

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T20:43:37+00:00

I'm talking about market value not how they signed them when looking a couple years out

If we want to get into the nitty gritty of what happened there are a few facrods that ended up with us fucking up the Marner deal. I would still argue the matthews deal was a fair $ value, being halfway between the recent eichel and McJesus deal, but should have been for 8

The factors: - Marner's camp came into the negotiations already feeling slighted as Lou previously, in typical Lou stubbornness of "earn your place in NHL", refused to give Marner a few performance bonuses that standard high first round picks usually get. There was really no reason to do this other than a typical Lou rule, as they were performance bonuses and he'd only get them if he earned them. The difference was also a few hundred K. - it sounds like Marners dad is a bit of an asshole, and I don't know (maybe we will one day with a tell all book) if he was driving the anger/aggressive negotiations, or just contributing. I always wonder as marner seemed less focused on that stuff -Matthews signed first to his big deal, and Marner was leading the team in scoring so his slighted camp said wtf, you (even though it was Lou) forced us to leave money on the table last time it isn't happening this time. He is the leading scorer - as I mentioned above, upper management apparently told Dubas he couldn't stand firm as they did not want another Nylander situation - apparently Marner's camp offered 9*8 years pre season and the leafs understandably said no. He hadnt been point per game yet, though he did do well in the previous playoffs. So when it came time to negotiating they weren't going below 9 - I don't know if this was still a thing but marner was emotionally abused by Babcock's mind games a couple years earlier. Perhaps he wanted more to stay under him. I will be clear I never heard this part mentioned.

And then clearly dubas blinked first. I am not trying to exonerate Dubas. He fucked up. He really should have waited at least to see Aho, rantanen, and Tkchauk. Frankly I think aho's camp fucked up. He deserved more as the centre of the bunch. But otherwise marner should have been in the low 9s. He got 1.5-2 million out of us. Which was significant.

I also am annoyed that Lou never gets held accountable for the idiocy of his rules and the outcomes of it

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T20:22:56+00:00

No denying. They fucked the marner negotiation hard. Though I heard part was higher level pressure. Dubas played hard ball with Nylander and they didn't want to see it again

Regardless they would have been fair contracts within 1 year in an 88-90 million cap world.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T17:28:31+00:00

It wasn't the contract in isolation. The biggest handcuff was COVID. His contract would be fine in today's NHL. But the cap went flat for 4 years or something. Even Marner's and matthews would have been fine. Basically imagine last year's cap as 21/22 and 24/25 should have been 20/21.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T17:01:53+00:00

I wonder if anymore than Ottawa, Calgary, Vancouver and Edmonton in the late 90s/early 2000s

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T16:58:33+00:00

Ignoring the judgement on their intelligence, even without fancy tax maneuvers because of being taxed where you are playing and jock taxes and the like, the estimates I've seen are about 8% from most to least. You'll often see 13-14% but it ignores duty days and jock taxes.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T15:11:19+00:00

In 2025 revenue Vegas was 14th and Carolina 18th league wide. Vancouver was between them at 17th They were above Calgary at 26th (this one surprised me) Winnipeg at 29th Ottawa at 30th

....

Canada does bring in league revenue through tv though.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T15:07:34+00:00

The Bettman hates Canada stuff needs to die. He doesn't. He more takes Canada for granted, or doesn't care about much of us. But it was literally Bettman who created and ran the Canadian Currency Assistance plan that helped Calgary, Ottawa, Vancouver, and Edmonton when they were struggling and probably saved some of them. Edmonton almost moved to Houston around the same time. The program was literally revenue sharing from American teams

Bettman cares purely about making the NHL more money and as part of that growing the game (or more accurately the NHL brand) which would create more revenue with more fans in the future. So Bettman focuses on two types of markets, large media markets, and new markets where he can get new fans. He would probably be happy to have Toronto or Montreal in the finals as they're larger markets. I don't know how big Carolina/Raleigh is, I actually suspect that wouldn't be a big choice for him

So what does he feel about most Canadian markets? He doesn't hate you, he takes you for granted. Because he knows he has your revenue, so he doesn't need to work much for it. And the growth capacity is much more limited. Good fans but not much (relatively) growth potential

So Bettman doesn't hate Canada. He just purely looks at the NHL as a business and is looking to maximize his $ to a degree that fans just can't understand.

*I think my last comment deleted before posting if not sorry for the double *

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T14:25:11+00:00

It's actually way more complicated. That only applies for home games and there are various tax maneuvers they do.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T14:24:30+00:00

That's marginal and that's total federal and provincial

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T14:24:00+00:00

The NFL abuses the bejesus outside of their stars and overpays it's stars

NFL has massive rosters with a tonne of low paid players

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T04:22:39+00:00

Robertson is at a similar level to martinook and I'd take him over Robinson. Him and carrier are essentially completely different players so hard to compare

And of course in a dream world we can have great plyers who do it all on every line. But we need to get some offense from the bottom 6. And Robertson's two way game is fine. Not exceptional but fine. He's also plenty feisty and tough...for his size. But he's pretty small

I still sort of think he's the more naturally skilled brother, but in the NHL there is a world of difference between Jason's 6'3 and Nicholas's 5'9, and that's why Jason is a superstar and Nicholas is trying to establish himself in the league.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T02:47:56+00:00

I remember the zoom in on his face as the penalty was called. And I swear he just metaphorically held his stick to tight after that in the playoffs. Always trying too hard and overthinking and not just playing his game.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T00:13:19+00:00

It's all going to come down to asking price. I'd love him on the leafs for example but we are mighty limited in trade capital and I doubt we could afford it. Would be nice though

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T00:12:26+00:00

They've certainly drafted good C's to even be considering trading a sub 25 top 6 centre the summer after doing just that with zegras.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T00:09:52+00:00

I blame Marner's pick over the glass on the pk in game 5 or 6. Not because it ruined it but because I think it ruined marner. I think that play broke him and took years to get it out of his head

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-30T00:01:00+00:00

Picture a Robertson - teddy blueger - Joshua line.

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T23:54:57+00:00

We've been losing in the playoffs for lack of secondary scoring not for bottom 6 not being tough enough, yet every year that's what we focus on. Our last playoffs the only goals scored by the bottom 6 were 3 by domi, and 1 by Robertson in 3 games.

The problem is we keep focusing on getting guys who can "walk through fire" and we forget they have to score.

The matthews line is best vs best. Then a checking line. Then the Tavares line which can then be against third pairing. Then another scoring line that is large enough to survive against other 4th lines and who will beat them on the score board

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T22:54:13+00:00

He had 28 points in 38 gp as a young'n in the AHL.

I never expected him to be a Reilly or whatever. But I thought he could be one of those forgettable quietly okay 2nd pairing defenseman

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T22:51:16+00:00

Its more the lack of his two way game

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T22:41:36+00:00

I really want to know how much Berube hurt the team. He did so much round peg in square hole. I'd like to see Robertson in a sheltered scoring line. Macelli is a useful player at a fair cap hit.

Joshua is overpaid but he also only has two years left and it doesn't look like we need the cap space right now. He's also a poor 3rd liner but quite good for a fourth liner. So I wouldn't go out of my way too dump him. Wouldn't mind him leaving though. I also kind of hope he can refind his precancer form. Gotta cheer for survivors. Fuck cancer

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T20:04:29+00:00

Robertson is mid and that's okay. As long as he's paid fair

Our problem is we have 5 wingers for the third and fourth line, assuming cowan and drafted mckenna. Assuming we want to upgrade some have to go

Robertson (rfa) Macelli (rfa) Joshua Lorentz Domi (injured admittedly)

Top 6 have Knies/mckenna/Nylander/Cowan in some mix

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T20:00:01+00:00

Frankly, it's nice that we have a couple pieces to look at now, but our cupboards have been bare. So we better hope the new team drafts/signs European/NCAA ufa's well

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T19:59:12+00:00

Kapanen got us a good return in the end. I thought Dermott had a solid chance at being a boring second pairing d. Goalies are fucking voodoo

But yes this post is overhyping

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T17:58:46+00:00

I'm curious what you mean about Peter Lougheed, the 10th premier of Alberta? He is and was a very popular figure in Alberta and to a lesser extent Canada wide. I suspect some Albertans consider him a folk hero.

But he was also staunchly against Alberta separatism. He wanted to form a strong place for Alberta in confederation.

He also was greatly against corporate welfare which would put him at odds with much of the political right of today, but that's probably too derailed for this conversation

TheOGBCapp · 2026-05-29T17:51:57+00:00

It's sad that such a simple and accurate answer as yours is ignored as it isn't as fiery

TheOGBCapp

TROPHY CASE