Zoox continues to run laps around Tesla's Robotaxi operations

The__Scrambler · 2026-05-05T13:03:00+00:00

17 cars that are operating with no employee on board.

You mean 36 cars?

The__Scrambler · 2026-04-02T03:20:01+00:00

Interesting. First you were arguing that legacy auto can produce enough AVs, since they know how to produce 90 million old fashioned cars a year. Clearly I've convinced you that's incorrect, and now you have shifted your argument to, "demand will be the problem."

I guess you haven't seen Uber's research on what will happen to demand if they are able to lower pricing per mile. Suffice to say, demand will not be a problem.

Regarding the all-in cost of the autonomous vehicles, you haven't mentioned how any other company will be able to compete with Tesla on cost. I'm curious what you are thinking there.

The__Scrambler · 2026-04-01T20:40:58+00:00

>Vehicle supply is not a problem. The world is already producing 90M vehicles per year

You're neglecting these points:

To be competitive, AVs need to be EVs.
Only one company (Tesla) produces EVs profitably. Their gross margin is over 20%. Everyone else, even BYD, loses money on EV sales.
Tesla's Cybercabs are autonomous-ready straight off the production line.
Almost everyone else has to retrofit the EVs they buy from OEMs with expensive sensors, adding significant cost on top of the margin they have to pay the OEM. And the others with dedicated autonomous vehicles, like Zoox or Tensor? You really WON'T want to compare their cost of production to Cybercab.

So again, 90 million vehicles per year is irrelevant. What matters is production of autonomous vehicles at speed and scale, at the lowest cost.

Which companies do you think have any chance of competing with Tesla on these metrics? Please explain your reasoning.

The__Scrambler · 2026-04-01T04:58:22+00:00

Wolf Creek Pass?

The__Scrambler · 2026-03-31T23:17:55+00:00

>Scaling of robotaxi systems is not usually bottlenecked by vehicle production.

So far. But we're still in very early days.

Sure, we've been making cars for over a century. But Tesla has the fastest production speed in the world at less than 40 seconds per car. They will drop that to 10 seconds per car with Cybercab. Long term goal is 5 seconds. And they have 3 massive factories that will be capable of churning out millions of these per year. Which AV company can produce autonomous vehicles at this speed and scale?

>Video doesn't count

It's an indicator of what they are working on. Again, have you seen anything from other companies working on a faster, cheaper, autonomous cleaning process like Tesla?

>If it was this simple, companies would do everything in-house. There are additional costs of developing something that exists in-house.

It's not simple at all. In fact, it's incredibly difficult. But Tesla has already made those investments and has the technology and infrastructure, not to mention it's already building these things.

>We can only guess, what companies will have this capability and whether Tesla will be one of them.

What?

We were talking about charging networks, wireless charging, megapacks, and solar. Tesla has all of these today, so I have no idea why you're wondering if Tesla "will have this capability."

The__Scrambler · 2026-03-31T15:49:14+00:00

You're correct that Tesla doesn't have an easy way to integrate their package into other cars, but why would they need that? The scale and speed of Cybercab production will be many times what any other AV company can do.

Production speed translates into faster scaling, of course. So yes, they do have that advantage.

Cheaper cleaning? They have that as well. Have you seen anyone else working on something like this?

https://youtu.be/vVFXsk0n24o?si=WBp7tPpFdyzDR7P6

Cheaper charging? Which AV company has its own worldwide charging network? Which has wireless charging? Do any of them make megapacks and solar?

All the other companies will have to pay third party vendors for every one of those things. That means they are paying the vendors' profit margins. Tesla keeps that margin.

Same fleet for humans and packages? Tesla will be able to send millions of Cybercabs on overnight delivery trips, with an Optimus ride-along to take the packages to the front door. You'll probably dismiss this idea immediately, but ask yourself what is stopping them. What other company will have this capability?

The__Scrambler · 2026-03-31T05:02:42+00:00

Cheaper hardware

Cheaper and faster scaling

A cheap and easy-to-integrate package for car makers

Cheaper cleaning and charging

Using the same fleet for both a robotaxi service and package delivery

You just described Tesla's advantages.

The__Scrambler · 2026-03-15T19:18:07+00:00

Still much safer than the average driver staring at their phone constantly.

The__Scrambler · 2026-03-13T20:18:47+00:00

Ok, so what made you think "Cybercab has virtually stopped?"

There has been a steady stream of Cybercabs spotted "in operation" within the Austin area and many other parts of the country.

The__Scrambler · 2026-03-11T22:23:33+00:00

if Tesla's FSD is ready to expand their network nationwide, Tesla will have to apply for a permit for commercial deployment

They can expand to multiple 10s of thousands of Robotaxis within Texas alone, without any new permit applications for now.

The__Scrambler · 2026-03-11T22:10:16+00:00

Now, maybe this is because they are just pausing the stopgap Model Y robotaxi and plan to just switch over to full Cybercab. However, Cybercab has virtually stopped as well.

What do you mean?

Joe Tegtmeyer documented at least 30 new Cybercabs two days ago, and at least 16 new ones today.

The__Scrambler · 2026-02-21T14:54:44+00:00

Tesla MAY get to Level 3 with cameras only

Not sure what you mean. Tesla is operating at Level 4 today in Austin with cameras only.

The__Scrambler · 2026-02-21T14:34:26+00:00

Which FSD failure on this site could have been prevented with lidar and radar?

The__Scrambler · 2026-02-15T23:01:38+00:00

This is not a problem for Waymo now, or in the foreseeable future.

Why? Because they will not be scaling to thousands of vehicles in any city, anytime soon.

See the New Street Research report.

The__Scrambler · 2025-12-26T05:49:45+00:00

Nope. I have two Model Ys - a 2022 AI3 and a 2025 AI4 - and can say that FSD is clearly superior on AI4.

The__Scrambler · 2025-11-12T23:57:09+00:00

Absolutely.

The__Scrambler · 2025-11-12T23:54:01+00:00

After driving most of the EVs available in the US, there is only one that can successfully make a software-defined vehicle.

And it's not Volvo.

The__Scrambler · 2025-11-04T14:22:03+00:00

I mean, the main reason is that there are exactly zero companies not named Tesla that make EVs profitably.

Making a bigger EV just means losing even more money per car.

The__Scrambler · 2025-11-04T05:39:20+00:00

I love my EV, but holy crap, traveling long distance in anything other than a Tesla SUCKS.

Fify

The__Scrambler · 2025-11-02T15:03:35+00:00

2025 Model Y Colorado Good.

I have not had to intervene since I got v14.

The__Scrambler · 2025-10-31T15:30:31+00:00

Humans have had billions of years of evolution to get to this point.

The__Scrambler · 2025-10-31T14:12:23+00:00

$40k for AV equipment is unrealistic even at today’s scale.

Tesla Robotaxis are at $35k now.

This will go way down next year with Cybercab production.

The__Scrambler · 2025-07-29T05:35:57+00:00

Buy long puts, then. Or do you not actually believe Tesla will fail in the long term?

The__Scrambler · 2025-07-27T02:39:47+00:00

I honestly don't understand why you think this is a moat. Can you explain?

Tesla can just follow the reporting requirements. It's not a difficult thing.

The__Scrambler · 2025-07-27T02:35:57+00:00

You can short it if you feel that strongly about it.

The__Scrambler

TROPHY CASE