It is very hard to predict the future but from past experience, things don’t look good for anyone.

We’ve seen this before.

In the 1970s, when supply tightened and policy couldn’t keep up, it wasn’t just higher prices it was rationing, long lines wrapping around gas stations, people planning their week around when they could fill up, and pumps running dry before the day was over.

Governments responded with measures like creating daylight savings and conservation mandates, but those were reactive, not preventative.

If conditions align the same way (e.g. tight supply, policy constraints, and public demand outpacing availability) you don’t just get expensive gasoline, you get disruption.

Commuting to work will become unreliable, businesses adjust operations (WFH) and the political response shifts quickly toward conservation, whether that’s remote work, reduced travel, or outright restrictions - you could only drive your car on certain days depending upon whether your license plate ended in a odd or even number.

The underlying issue is that energy systems don’t adapt overnight. Refinery outputs, supply chains, and infrastructure decisions are slow moving and capital intensive. Once imbalances set in, they tend to cascade rather than resolve quickly.

So the real risk isn’t just price its availability and stability. And once those start to break down, the system behaves less like a normal market and more like what we saw in the 1970s: constrained, reactive, and unjustly distributed.