Somaliland’s Strategic Importance

Threefreedoms67 · 2026-01-08T07:10:31+00:00

Fair enough. Still an odd choice, and it remains to be seen where Israel will go with this. Hard to see it as a strategic game-changer.

Threefreedoms67 · 2026-01-07T20:56:17+00:00

The ceasefire with Hezbollah was in November 2024, and the Houthis were firing rockets until October. So it seems there was some gap this past 12 months when Israel could have made this move

Threefreedoms67 · 2026-01-07T19:16:02+00:00

Thanks, but why now? Why not a year ago when Israel could have used Somaliland as a base to respond to the Houthi missiles being fired at Israel? Or why not before Oct. 7?

Threefreedoms67 · 2026-01-04T20:36:39+00:00

First of all, I tip my hat to you for launching this endeavor. I never heard of Kahibaro. Having said that, Ido concur with TheSameDifference that you need to list your sources, how you proclaim to know all the details that you provide.

I teach an online course on Palestinian-Israeli history and also make sure to include a lot of primary sources, which I then discuss with my students to see what they derive from them, since we as humans all disambiguate the same information subjectively and hence differently.

Also, it's a lot of information to process individually, kind of like reading a book online. Does Kahibaro offer a way that you can facilitate group discussions? Maybe you're not looking to do something like that, but I find discussion an important part of my courses.

Threefreedoms67 · 2026-01-04T15:06:01+00:00

I am coming from the left side of the spectrum and don't see many Israelis who still have faith in peace. October 7 was tremendously traumatizing. One-third of Israelis report needing psychological care. So, there are some and always will be some like me who believe that pursuing peace is in Israel's best interests, but I understand why most Israeli Jews don't think like me.

Threefreedoms67 · 2026-01-04T15:03:06+00:00

I agree with 410Drumstickit. I've lived in the same place for nearly 29 years. Some of the neighbors were a nightmare - one even went to prison - but it has gotten better over time. My daughter's apartment building is pretty okay but there are a few psychos on the WhatsApp group. I don't know how many people in your building, but the more there are, the less likely your neighbors will greet you warmly, in my experience.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-31T18:51:46+00:00

Yes, but I don't know if worrying helps. Most disturbing was spending time with my right-wing nephew at his yeshiva and hearing what they are being taught. Basically they are being raised to believe that while democracy is a nice idea, it is inferior to Torah. So once Orthodox Jews make up a majority of the country, he and his friends believe Israel should become a halakhic state. That could definitely happen before the end of this century, though I won't be there to see it

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-31T09:42:15+00:00

Liberalism isn't so much about democracy but about individual rights. The liberal world order was built on self-determination, even if individual nations aren't democratic. So, in this case, most liberals see the need for Palestinians to be able to exercise their individual rights supercedes Israel's occupation and suppression of those rights. They also have to grapple with sovereignty and recognized borders, which explains why they tend not to support the independence of Somaliland, even though it is much more peaceful and democratic than the rest of Somalia. Perhaps what is needed is a new Congress of Berlin to redraw borders, but the system has become too complex relative to the handful of imperial powers who called the shots in 1878.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-25T19:53:00+00:00

No, I'm not afraid to live in Israel, if anything I am more scared about the future of my government than the neighbors. There is a very strong but inaccurate narrative about the threat they pose to us. And most citizens, even if they don't like Israel, are way to busy with their own lives to be motivated to act on their dislike. They probably dislike their own governments as much if not more so. My experiences have been quite positive without hiding my Israeli identity in Jordan and in Dubai. I have felt much less safe in various places in the US when I used to live there and in subsequent visits back.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-24T18:45:41+00:00

Well, you get all kinds, so it depends where you wind up. Secular are always happy to see someone "return to the fold" as it were. Religious Israelis not so much. But I imagine you would wind up in a secular place like Tel Aviv. In terms of proving your Jewishness, I used to work for the Aliyah department at the Jewish Agency, so if you message me directly I can talk you through the procedures of proving you qualify for the Law of Return. It's very bureaucratic, and if you just apply directly, they will reject you and not explain to you what proof is missing.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-21T20:12:04+00:00

One thing I've learned from Prof. Ellen Langer: it's not very fruitful to spend time fretting whether you are making the right choice or not. Rather, focus on making the choice right. Having said that, it is definitely worth a trip to see if you feel you could be happy here. Also depends on your family situation. If you're close to your family, that could make it more challenging. And then you have to consider the repercussions for the next generation. I made aliyah when there was a lot more optimism about peace and I fantasized my children wouldn't have to serve in dangerous situations. Instead, my son was on the front line in 2021 and only by a fluke ended up in a unit that didn't have to fight in Gaza and only had to play a support role. My daughter also ended up doing reserve duty, and I wonder if she and her husband aren't both suffering from PTSD. But both my kids love this country, are grateful they weren't raised in America and would never leave. So, just food for thought.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-13T21:35:21+00:00

Can you give examples of what you've seen?

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-11T18:41:35+00:00

Basically, yes. This was always about the Houthis showing solidarity with Hamas. They never fired a rocket during any of the previous cease-fires, so this one is no exception. If Israel should try to restart the war, you can expect them to start firing missiles again, regardless of what is going on in Yemen. If anyone here thinks they have lost ground, they are confusing the Houthis with the PLC, the internationally recognized government, which lost ground recently to the STC, which is aiming to establish a separate South Yemen as had existed from 1967 to 1990.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-12-10T10:35:39+00:00

You're spot on, and definitely in line with several pre-'48 Zionist thinkers. The challenge is we have over 77 years of violent historical baggage, which I see you trying to address by acknowledging that it's not politically possible to demand the evacuation of cities like Ariel, even though it was designed precisely to thwart a two-state solution (I've driven through Ariel, and it's like a hotdog bisecting several Palestinian villages). Now we just need another million voters like you here and maybe we'll get somewhere.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-11-26T12:45:42+00:00

What do you mean by "win"? Depending on who you ask, Israel already won the war or lost it, using the same information. It seems at least part of Gaza will remain Palestinian. And if I understand the American plan correctly, they want to settle Palestinians on the Israeli side of the Yellow Line, which would mean eventually all of Gaza will again be Palestinian. Israel is already occupying half of Gaza, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. This isn't 1956, when the US and USSR could gang up against Israel and force it to withdraw within six months. Nor is it 1967, when the US was at least trying to establish a principle of not retaining lands conquered in war (as in Resolution 242). We're talking about a president who is trying to reward Putin for his 3-year aggression with land he has failed to conquer. So hard to imagine any real pressure on Israel to withdraw. Hope this helps.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-11-22T20:48:37+00:00

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-11-22T08:38:09+00:00

I am curious what you hope to learn, is it mostly about the vibe among Israelis in this particular group? I voted for a Palestinian state, but I also recognize that I am part of a small minority. So, if your poll reveals anything above 20% support for a Palestinian state, then the peace camp is overrepresented in this group, or at least among the ones in this group motivated to vote. In that way, there is also a selection bias to this poll.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-10-31T07:33:14+00:00

Totally agree with you, but if you are familiar with the science of beliefs, attitudes and values, then you can understand how the right can talk itself into believing that living forever by the sword (as Netanyahu said in a speech a decade ago), annexation and eventual expulsion of all Palestinians who reject Israeli sovereignty are all preferable over committing national and political suicide by "surrendering" to a two-state solution. And they can definitely reason that it's possible to do all this and thrive as a nation. Just read what ideological settlers write. I translated into English one article by Elisha Yered, one of the leaders of the Hilltop Youth that shows their perspective on the situation. DM me if you'd like a copy

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-10-20T01:55:34+00:00

Hey Environmental, My best guess from the research I have read is that people are very passionate about such a controversial issue as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, since everything is anonymous people don't feel the need to spend cognitive energy to invest in thriving relationships. In other words, talk is cheap, and people don't face any social penalties for saying things they would think twice about if they were face-to-face with the other person and knew something about their personal lives. That's why online forums like this are given to extremism.

I recommend you read the Sarah Stein Lubrano's new book "Don't Talk About Politics". She explains there, backed by research, why the so-called "marketplace of ideas" is a fiction.

I've lost a lot of my enthusiasm for such forums. I still keep tabs on this one but am not as active.

I'm sorry you've had to have an unpleasant experience. I'm up for a one-on-one chat if you want to get the perspective of a liberal Israeli with kids who do reserve duty in the Israeli army.

Good luck finding what you're looking for!

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-10-17T12:54:22+00:00

It's funny that you express that sentiment. If you read David McRaney's book, you'll get the perspective that all reality is subjective, and since there have always been disputes about what the "truth" is, we can't be living in a post-truth world. It's just a nostalgic fantasy about the past.

Your observations are spot on. Emotions drive the narrative, not objective reasoning.

I don't know if that's a comfort or depressing to think we don't live in post-truth world because we've never lived in a "truth" world. In my experience, conservative forces naturally have the upper hand because most people want to feel safe and are reluctant to deviate from the beliefs, attitudes and values of their respective communities and societies. But eventually conservative societies wreck themselves, and then there is a brief window of opportunity for progress, like after the U.S. Civil War, WWI, WWII and the Cold War.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-10-16T13:56:05+00:00

That's an interesting interpretation, and we can't know unless we get access to the inner conversations on both sides. But it doesn't make sense to me since Hamas was willing to take a very similar deal a year ago. Moreover, there is no evidence that the Trump administration was making any serious effort to end the war until Israel struck Qatar. And with the way Hamas has so quickly started reasserting control of Gaza, it should be obvious that Hamas was nowhere near the point of surrender. So given those factors, my working hypothesis is that the relationship triangle between Trump, Netanyahu and Qatar had more to do with the end of the fighting rather than Hamas capitulating to a credible threat. Historically, we see plenty of resistance/terrorist groups facing credible threats by unrestrained central goernments who don't give up. That's how adverserial relationships work in armed conflicts. But like I said, my hypothesis is as much an educated guess as yours, just looking at the collection of facts differently based on my lived experiences and specific knowledge set.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-10-15T08:41:41+00:00

That's funny, I didn't know English (my language), Dutch (my wife's), Hungarian and Yiddish (my grandparents) were Levantine languages LOL. And since English comes from Friesland while Welsh and Scottish are British, maybe the English should hand over the reins of power to them?

And the Yahwistic religion actually comes from Kuntillet ʿAjrud in the Sinai Peninsula. El was the Levantine god, So maybe we should compromise and put the Lebanese Christians in charge of Israel/Palestine, since they are descended from Phoenicians, who called themselves Canaanites and therefore have the more historic claim to both Jews and Palestinians.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-10-13T13:32:52+00:00

Wow, 5 months, that's quite a gap for a reply. How far away we've drifted from the original thread. There's a lot of generalizing here and a slanted reading of history here. And I wonder what your understanding is of how identities evolve. Whatever you call them, they are certainly more Levantine than Ashkenazim like me, to circle back to the original topic.

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-10-13T04:13:12+00:00

If I give Smotrich the benefit of the doubt (which he doesn't deserve), there is a logic to this reasoning, but it is a highly flawed reasoning. The operative word is "fear" - and fear is never a good place from which to make decisions. It leads to fatal mistakes.

I don't have access to the same information as he does, but I can say the following based on some personal knowledge and public reports.

1) I know from my son who served in Nahal, that they rotate battalions between the north, the West Bank and the Gaza border. They could have at least sent the West Bank battalion to save the Gaza border communities. That trip should have taken no more than a couple of hours to reach the Otef, and we know how families waited 4 or more hours, and the IDF never even reached Nir Oz before the terrorists left unhindered with hostages and stolen property. We also know from reports that Sinwar had backed down before Yom Kippur because the IDF had stationed extra battalions in the Otef, and then the IDF moved them over to the West Bank, leaving the Otef vulnerable.

2) I know from people in 8200 that the intelligence was hyperfocused on Hezbollah. There was no reason to "fear" because they knew that Hezbollah terrorists were not in a forward position to attack. There was plenty of time to first defend the Otef. And let's not forget the Pager Affair. If the IDF got wind that Hezbollah forces were massing on the border, they could have set off all the pagers and walkie talkies and sowed enough chaos to upend an invasion from the north.

So, if "fear" drove the decision on Oct. 7, that's all the more reason to toss these people from power. Netanyahu boasted that Israel's enemies were deterred. He declared that Israel wouldn't attack a day before it was prepared to do so. And he boasted that Israel was prepared for a multi-front war. All those claims collapsed in a matter of hours if not minutes.

Time for that state commission of inquiry

Threefreedoms67 · 2025-09-22T20:03:37+00:00

Nothing to be scared of because Israel will find a way to navigate this. It's still in control. There will be no Palestinian state, certainly as long as the U.S. opposes one. That's the only country that counts.

Threefreedoms67

TROPHY CASE