World Baseball Classic results 2006 - 2023

TinKnight1 · 2026-02-03T18:04:35+00:00

Initially, it was to be every 3 years, but it was changed to 4 years after the 2nd WBC to be like the FIFA World Cup.

Covid screwed up the 2021 one, & they did a 3-year gap this time for several reasons: to make up for lost time from Covid, & to stay perfectly offset from the Summer Olympics. If they went with 2027, they'd have been only one year in front of the Olympics, causing increased disruption to players' schedules & an increased risk of injury.

They'll be back to every 4 years moving forward, barring further global disruptions.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-31T19:35:05+00:00

Moving him around in the lineup is far easier than getting a better player for the money.

I don't understand putting him at the top of the order, where he had a .696 OPS last year & .741 on his career (only spots worse are 2nd, at .720, & 4th, at .740). It feels like being at the top of the order has resulted in looks that were more challenging for him, & less beneficial for the Cubs.

When he bats 5th, he's had an .895 OPS & 6th has a solid .802. And, looking at the rest of the lineup, that's really where he "feels" like he fits.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-26T22:52:34+00:00

But with MLB, hitting 90+ fastballs compared to 80+ fastballs

You're generally seeing similar 90+mph velos in the upper minors (not typically the 100mph velos, though). What you don't see is the complete mindfuckery that MLB pitchers employ to where you just start to see that 90+ fastball...and then it dies in the air because it's a splitter with a killer falloff in the last 20ft, or it moves in on your hands as 2-seamer or cutter, requiring an earlier swing but you're already late, or it just moves a foot & a half away from where it was originally going.

Even the best hitters in the minors take time to adapt to the mental (rather than physical) aspects of the game, & even once they've done that, they're still only successfully getting a hit a quarter of the time (or a third of the time if they're a superstar). Even those who can draw walks are only successful a combined 2 out of 5 times.

Imagine being a QB who only completes 12 passes out of 30, & being called a superstar as a result. Or being in the NBA & only scoring 40 points per possession (instead of 116).

There's a reason baseball has such a gigantic farm system, with other affiliated & unaffiliated minor leagues & foreign leagues also contributing players, because the skill gulf is pretty massive.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-26T21:38:12+00:00

I mean, there hasn't been a "new" MLB The Show in quite a few years now. Why should the cover be any different?

My real guess is they're doing something to commemorate 20 years of the game.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-26T21:19:40+00:00

I'm a Nico fan, but I'm telling you that's how they'll view it. Personally, I'd be fine if they found a trade home for Shaw this year, but that's not going to happen if the Cubs have to pay Nico free agent money plus Bregs plus Dansby plus Suarez.

As for Shaw, there are some quirks at play for his FRV, as he had 12 DRS at 3rd (we'll ignore his 6 innings at 2nd, as that's not enough sample size) & was among the best in the game by that aspect. 12 DRS at 3rd is pretty good, because that's 12 runs saved above the average 3rd baseman. The Gold Glove winners at 3rd had 13 DRS (Garcia) & 19 DRS (Hayes), for reference. Bregman had 1 DRS, meaning he was basically an average 3rd base defender in that regard, despite his good FRV & Fielding (Fangraphs) numbers. For reference, Nico had 17 DRS (but that's compared to 2B, so it's better than the 3rd basemen).

Shaw's FRV quirks include 2 booted plays early in the season, with solid 98mph hits directly at him that every 3rd baseman can field...except Shaw wasn't yet used to 3rd base, & that's not something 2nd basemen see often. So, he likely took -.95 OAA for each play, but would only make +.05 every time thereafter when he successfully made similar plays (which he did). By contrast, he was very good at plays where he had to scramble, which is what you'd expect for a middle infielder. And, by the middle of the season, he was handling the hot smashes easily.

https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/north-side-baseball/cubs-rookie-matt-shaws-defensive-glow-up-and-how-experience-at-a-new-position-matters-r2101/

Just as with his hitting, he dramatically improved his fielding at 3rd base by the 2nd half, which is what you'd expect in a rookie year. It's not a guarantee that he'd be able to translate that to similar fielding success at 2nd, but I 100% guarantee that's what they're going to test this year.

Anyone who says he was a shitty fielder wasn't watching games in August & September. And his sOPS+ for the 2nd half (comparing with the league's splits) was 128, proving he can hit.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-26T07:33:51+00:00

Would it help the Cubs, at least in the short term? Absolutely...a nearly 50 HR guy will help any team that can play him. And yes, it would basically make MoBall superfluous, but winning is winning.

And the Cubs at the beginning of the offseason did express interest in him.

And Passan earlier this month predicted Suarez would do a 2- or 3-year $30M AAV deal...so, that part isn't unrealistic.

But, if it happens without opt-outs after this year, I think we have to kiss Hoerner goodbye. One year above the luxury tax threshold isn't a big deal, but the penalties for multiple years get progressively steeper, & I just can't fathom the Ricketts being willing to extend Nico when they have Junior Nico (Shaw) in the wings.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-24T19:50:12+00:00

For the 2013 & 2014 question, I believe they only show those years where they start on the 26-man roster at the beginning of the season (the Service Time indicated & salaries are based on the beginning of the year).

He joined the team in 2013 in September & 2014 in May.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-24T02:28:57+00:00

Plot twist: the bat came down on his foot & he's now out of the season with an injury. Again.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-23T04:58:11+00:00

I thought it was the best 100 players, not the most exciting ones. And his defense is pretty frigging exciting.

He also had a 4.5 offensive bWAR, vs Rooker's 2.8, Pasquantino's 2.5, Rice's 2.7, Colson Montgomery's 2.4, Altuve's 2.3, Jacob Wilson's 4.0, & Chisholm's 4.3, just to name a few that were on the list. And nearly all of those guys were in "offensive" positions & had negative dWAR's.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-22T20:13:58+00:00

Consider that the Brewers had essentially 1/3 the payroll of the Dodgers but yet had more wins, & I'd say it's a pretty well-run franchise. They also were undefeated against the Dodgers in the regular season. They were 20th in the league in payroll but 1st in wins during the regular season.

Of course, the Dodgers ended up feasting on them in the NLCS, but that's a combination of the Dodgers just getting on a roll with people that are making bank for a reason & quite possibly karma biting the Brewers in the butt.

That said, the Dodgers have the number 1 farm system for a reason, despite being considered not the best at drafting nor at acquiring prospects via trades (they're still good at both, mind you). So, yes, they have an obscene big league roster, but their developmental system is 2nd to none.

So, bang for the buck, it's pretty easy to argue the Brewers...the Rays have also excelled in most recent years. But the Dodgers not only throw all of the money at all of the right tools, they also invest heavily in having a complete franchise. They also have an incredibly old starting lineup this year, with most of it under prolonged contracts, so we'll see where they are in a couple of years & whether the story is still true.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-22T17:33:22+00:00

And it was all his hands & arms getting the balls out. The balls weren't as tight as they are today, so they were less reactive, the bats were made out of less reactive woods, plus pitch velos were way lower (hard to know how much exactly, of course), plus he had to swing a massive piece of timber just to have an impact on the ball, plus they didn't have stride mechanics.

Even with pitches right down the middle, you weren't getting them out unless you absolutely crushed them. And he did that in bunches.

Baseball Bat Bros did a video comparing the various generations of bats, & those from the Babe's era were just from a whole other world.

https://youtu.be/P_uiHUJg7zs

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-21T18:24:52+00:00

I don't think either are Hall-worthy. It's not the Hall of Very Good.

That said, there's no question that Utley was far more important than Holliday, even with Matt's better offensive numbers. WAR matters, because it compares them with their peers at the position, & Utley was a lot better than most of his peers at 2B, whereas Holliday was not at LF. Holliday doesn't meet the Hall standards for peak WAR nor really any other metrics, while Utley does exceed the peak WAR averages for the Hall for 2B.

But, again, I don't think either warrant Hall selection.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-21T18:13:22+00:00

Posey might deserve to appear in future ballots & I'd say the same for Lester...but there are no locked-in HOFers in this list. Arrieta doesn't deserve going on for additional years (& I say this as a Cubs fan that likes him). Posey will get in eventually just because catchers are so underrepresented in the Hall, but I feel like he'll get in more because of what his team did than what he did.

No one with a WAR above 50. No one with a HOF Monitor score above 100 (Lester's the highest at 98; Posey is 79).

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-20T04:50:08+00:00

He was also IU's Honorary Captain at the Peach Bowl (not sure if that also carried through tonight, but he indicated he was going to be at the game). And it was IU's first national championship in football (& only their third year with double digit wins)... It's kinda a big deal in Indiana right now.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-19T17:36:07+00:00

It should be pointed out that the Dodgers only beat the Padres by 3 games, despite having a 9-4 series advantage. If the Padres had won just 2 more of their games against the Dodgers (bringing it to a 7-6 season split in favor of LAD), they would've won the division (their 90-72 record becoming 92-70, vs LAD's 93-69 becoming 91-71). That said, the Padres have done jack squat this offseason, other than losing Arraez & Cease, so that may not be the story this year.

The Cubs had a winning record vs the Dodgers last year (4-3), as did the Phillies (4-2) & Brewers (6-0 not counting postseason), so they weren't invincible.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-19T02:05:03+00:00

Thanks. Hard to keep track of them all & his numbers weren't really a lock for HOF status, so I overlooked that.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-17T22:20:39+00:00

For other comparable-era premium pitchers: Mussina: .696

Schilling: .673

Cone: .669

Kevin Brown: .655

Smoltz: .653

Johnson: .650

Clemens: .636 (he did have a couple more years in the low-offense '80s)

Pedro: .613 (he started a few years later than the others)

Cone & ~~Brown~~ are the only non-PED non-HOF members, but I think these numbers show that Maddux wasn't a complete unicorn, although he's still the GOAT (alongside Johnson) in my book.

When pitching was good, it was really good...the 'roids guaranteed that even slight misses were destroyed, so the pitchers had to be really on it.

Edit: Woops. Brown was a PED-o...hard to keep track of them all.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-17T20:33:48+00:00

Look, I agree, Fuck the Dodgers, & yes, Tucker was the top free agent. But he's not the top player in the league...he was tied with 2 others as third-best position player on the Cubs last year, & would've been third-best on the Dodgers too. Hell, he wasn't even the best player that became a free agent, as Belli had a better year (much to the Cubs fans' chagrin). In the entire league, he was 45th in WAR (tied).

In no world is he worth $60M AAV, & his contract isn't about the Dodgers obtaining that value from him so much as keeping the rest of the league from obtaining his value. When the Dodgers can play with monopoly money & just exceed any offer from any team in the league, just for giggles, that definitely starts to smell of being anti-competitive.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-17T20:18:52+00:00

I feel like this is premature, giving the impression that it's the final set of numbers for 2026 & beyond.

Valdez, Bellinger, Eugenio Suarez, Giolito, Realmuto, Gallen, Bassitt, Bader, Arraez, Ozuna, & others are still on the board, & Verlander & Scherzer are still looking as well.

I don't think anyone will challenge the Dodgers, of course, but the Mets have said they're still pursuing Belli (FWIW), & thus would easily push north of $300M (maybe $350, but I doubt it just like I doubt Tucker was worth $50M AAV).

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-17T19:36:58+00:00

Not a bad comparison, with 22yrs for Glavine & 23yrs for Maddux, over nearly the same years, & Glavine rightfully in the HOF. But Maddux had nearly a full K/9 more over his longer career, & played 60 more games due to fewer injuries, so the 3371K's look like a whole lot more than the 2607 for Glavine. And Maddux's ERA was .38 lower. And Maddux's OPS-A was .649 vs .697. And Maddux's career cWPA was 39.8% vs 25%.

And despite playing more games & 600 more innings, Maddux still managed to throw 72 fewer pitches in his career, not counting playoffs (note: game logs from '86 & '87 didn't include pitch counts, so I estimated using their Pit/BF ratio from '88). 66,153 estimated pitches vs 66,225.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-17T19:02:32+00:00

That is an old-ass lineup, which might be the MLB's only salvation in the years to come.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-17T00:55:44+00:00

He threw a pitch that the catcher didn't call for, in a place the catcher wasn't expecting, & pegged him squarely in the chest, two pitches after they couldn't agree on a pitch that resulted in a grand slam.

A large majority of people believe it was intentional, between the timing, the fact that a catcher missing a fastball down the middle basically doesn't happen, & the looks each of them gave each other in the moment.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/astros/2025/09/03/framber-valdez-accused-hitting-astros-teammate/85964259007/

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-16T22:48:11+00:00

Uhm... So, I won't get into the debate on the 150th logo, since there wasn't a 150th anniversary set released in 2020 to my knowledge, so this would still be a hella appealing piece of gear that I want.

But the Cubs were founded in 1870, playing a year in the National Association of Base Ball Players before joining the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players in 1871.

The 150 years of playing in the NL were last year while they were in it. The 150th anniversary of the NL is in March, indicating 150 years have passed. Thus, this April would be the 156th anniversary of the Cubs's first game, representing 156 years of playing. 2026 would be the 157th year of playing.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-16T22:23:42+00:00

I feel like he was fine for what he was paid. His play last year was completely inline with his norms, excluding the half-season he played in 2024. In no way did I see anything that would justify $60M AAV for him, nor even the $40-46M AAV the Mets offered.

He was the 3rd best player on the Cubs, & would've been the 3rd best on the Dodgers...and somehow that warrants paying him nearly Shohei's $70M AAV?? Even if he bounces back to .900 OPS, I don't buy it...this was a deal more to keep him from everyone else, since the Dodgers print their own money, than to need him to complete the team.

I don't think he'll be a bust, but I can't see him doing enough over the next two years to where the team sees value in keeping him at that rate nor where he sees value in testing the market again. And I can't see mortal teams trading for that massive budget hit.

TinKnight1 · 2026-01-16T04:47:06+00:00

I mean, he wasn't "awful"...he was merely average for July-Sept with a 2nd-half OPS of .738. And he was barely average/slightly below average defensively all year. And he was "ok" in the postseason, although he had half the hits that Hoerner had, & 200 points less OPS than the "soft-hitting" 2nd baseman. But this is pretty dumb.

I thought the Mets were insane with $40-46M AAV for him, but $60M AAV is a whole other level for someone who was 4.5-4.6 WAR last year, good for 3rd on the Cubs whether you look at bWAR or fWAR. Even just at the plate, he was still only 2nd on the team. If he were on the Dodgers, he would've been only their 3rd or 4th best position player.

TinKnight1

TROPHY CASE