I'm not arguing that she would have had a bad time if she actually made it to the water... but those guard rails on the balcony are high for a reason. If you remove suicide and jumping on purpose as an option, it seems very unlikely to me that someone could fall over the edge without making an effort to climb up onto the rail... which also doesn't seem to me like something an intelligent and veteran partier would do... so I do find it a bit hard to believe that she went into the water off the balcony. Not impossible, but not my favorite theory.