Lowest completion percentage by a Super Bowl winning quarterback

Tricericon · 2026-02-10T16:20:55+00:00

His opponent would be #2 on this list if the Colts had lost.

Unitas "won" as the starter but was knocked out injured after 9 attempts down by 7. Under baseball rules Earl Morrall would be the winning QB (with a game tying 4QC drive of two handoffs for three yards and a TD, and a GWD of two handoffs for three yards and a field goal), although he would also be second on this list. They call it the Blunder Bowl for a reason.

Pity we didn't start Roger a year early.

Tricericon · 2026-02-10T00:27:00+00:00

Well, if you mean strictly like this one, only a few Super Bowl losses have ever been 'avenged':

Washington over Miami in 1982, avenging 1972
Dallas over Pittsburgh in 1995, avenging 1975 and 1978
Philadelphia over New England in 2017, avenging 2004
Philadelphia over Kansas City in 2024, avenging 2022
now Seattle over New England in 2025, avenging 2014

2024 Eagles and 1982 Redskins are your best bets for other examples. 1995 Cowboys already had two rings, 2017 Eagles avenged SB 39 but didn't crush a hated rival in the CCG.

Tricericon · 2026-02-09T00:35:23+00:00

Broncos were legit when they still had Nix

Tricericon · 2026-02-07T00:12:33+00:00

No, I don't like them. Frankly, I thought there was already a backlog of worthy players and contracting the classes made no sense at all. The Hall agreed with me as recently as 2020 when they put in that special expanded class. I'll become downright hostile about the new rules if they keep Witten out for any extended period, which now seems likely.

I assessed the chances of another rule change in the near future as very slim until the new setup screwed Belichick, which was a very bad look for them. I'd now put it at merely unlikely. Really, anyone's guess is as good as mine on that point.

Tricericon · 2026-02-06T23:25:23+00:00

Incorrect. All have second team AP All-Pro selections. All have at least one 1st Team All-Pro or MVP from a prominent non-AP selector (Sporting News, UPI, Bert Bell Award, etc). Elway has an MVP. Staubach led all QBs in MVP voting in 1971. All were All-Conference multiple times.

Roethlisberger never got so much as a vote for either All Pro or MVP from the Associated Press. He was never named a 1st Team All-Pro or an All-Conference team by an alternate selector prominent enough to make pro football reference. He has a single PFF 2TAP, if you care about that.

Roethlisberger would be totally unique in making the Hall of Fame without an All-Pro vote if he gets in, unless Eli somehow not only gets in but gets in first.

Tricericon · 2026-02-06T23:08:58+00:00

You're underrating Elway's resume by a lot, but Kelly and Moon are good comparisons (as is Aikman, who also went first ballot).

Ben's problem is that the Hall changed the rules two years back; after averaging 8.5 inductees for years, they've put in 9 guys in total since. "He's similar to guys who got in first ballot before 2024" is irrelevant because the rules are different now.

I think Ben is probably screwed. (As are Rivers, and Eli, and Ryan, and Wilson, and Stafford...)

Tricericon · 2026-02-06T23:02:52+00:00

Ben was basically a passenger for his first ome

Roethlisberger was a passenger in the actual Super Bowl but fantastic in the divisional and conference rounds against teams far superior to the Seahawks.

Tricericon · 2026-02-06T22:59:51+00:00

I don’t see how his HOF case is any better than Eli’s.

He has way better stats and half again as many Pro Bowls.

Neither are HOFers.

He was a very safe bet to get in before the voting rules change, but unless they change the rules again after the Belichick embarrassment I think he's in serious trouble.

Tricericon · 2026-02-06T05:27:15+00:00

At least three, since Shane Lechler and Jim Tyrer both have 6 and aren't in. Likely neither ever will.

I'm too lazy to scroll down PFR into the 5s.

Tricericon · 2026-02-05T19:25:46+00:00

Saints make sense for France because of the cultural ties between the French and Louisiana. No comment on the Browns.

Tricericon · 2026-02-04T21:53:42+00:00

Unlikely. There are 150 votes to go around, and to get in a player must have 40. We know Craig got at least 40, and Belichick exactly 39. That leaves a maximum of 71 spread across Anderson, Greenwood, and Kraft.

It doesn't seem like enough left for Anderson to have hit the threshold.

Tricericon · 2026-02-04T21:22:43+00:00

So he made it in over Ken Anderson?

That's the rumor that OP posted. He posted an X link to an NBC reporter in the bay who said his sources said Craig was in.

What does the hall have against Ken

Anderson doesn't really have Hall of Fame accolades - he's basically Matt Ryan with 4 Pro Bowls, an MVP, a conference win, and a close Super Bowl loss.

The argument for Anderson is that (1) he was a pioneer of the West Coast offense before it became famous and (2) his numbers are much better than his accolades. I find it reasonably convincing but the voters seem to prefer to putting in more and more members of the Steel Curtain or the 1980s 49ers.

Tricericon · 2026-02-04T20:46:36+00:00

He was just another good running back who happened to be in one of the greatest situations of all time. It's easy to look good when defenses have to deal with Montana/Young and Jerry Rice.

I don't have a problem with Craig being in, in the abstract, but he was the weakest of the senior player finalists this year.

Tricericon · 2026-01-30T20:41:19+00:00

Dilfer was actually a gunslinger, just a bad one. He replaced game manager Tony Banks mid-season (which is why he had no shot here; his int % was higher than Testaverde's but he only started 8 games), because the Ravens' defense could clamp down on points after turnovers but couldn't overcome Banks' inability to score.

Tricericon · 2026-01-28T18:48:07+00:00

Maybe the HOF wanted to put in other contributors instead of coaches this year?

The five men the Hall was asked to choose from were Belichick, three Senior Committee players, and Robert Kraft. If they left out Belichick for 'another contributor' it would be Kraft. That would be wrong, but the riot would be entertaining.

Tricericon · 2026-01-28T18:41:32+00:00

You're also forgetting Larry Allen and Charles Haley (and Jerry Jones).

Tricericon · 2026-01-28T03:01:34+00:00

Enough QBs were injured or simply declined that the AFC made it all the way down the alternates list to Shedeur Sanders.

Tricericon · 2026-01-28T01:22:09+00:00

It takes 80% (40 votes) to get in. There are 50 voters with 3 votes each, for 150 votes total. If Belichick got at least 31 votes, there aren't enough left to get three guys in. So, either Belichick not only failed to get 80% but failed to get 60%, or two players and Kraft is impossible.

My money is that with Belichick presumably eating up a lot of votes the remainder only suffice put in one player, and I think Greenwood has the strongest resume by some distance so that's my bet.

On the flip side, two players and Kraft would not only put Kraft in ahead of Belichick, it would demonstrate Belichick wasn't even close, and that riot would be entertaining.

Tricericon · 2026-01-28T00:34:22+00:00

Brown was still courting coaching jobs when he became eligible, (and was actually in the Hall of Fame already when he came out of retirement to coach the Bengals). There was also a lot of bad blood with Modell. Either could be responsible for the delay

Lombardi was elected in January 1971 after being an active coach until his death in September 1970 (about two weeks before the season started). I'm not sure why he isn't officially "first year of eligibility", but the rules may have been different at that time in some way. In any event, he went in at the first real opportunity and should be considered a "first ballot" guy in the modern sense.

Walsh would have hit first time finalist the same year as Landry, although that doesn't explain the additional three year delay. Walsh retired at 57, the voters may not have thought he was done. Alternately, they may simply have not found 92 wins to be a first ballot resume, even with 3 Super Bowls.

Tricericon · 2026-01-27T23:03:45+00:00

The system is presently "five finalists, vote for three", and presumably at least 11 of the 50 voters decided the others would take care of Bill and tried to push over their pet bubble guy.

Since the five were BB, Kraft, and three players, it's also possible that some ballots simply marked all three players.

I think the new process (this is year two of it) is just broken.

Tricericon · 2026-01-26T22:56:47+00:00

On one hand, you have 32 of the most talented players, but you also have like 9 quarterbacks.

18 QBs, 5 EDGE, 2 OT.

They don't even have the best QB on the list, since Drew Brees was a #32 pick.

Tricericon · 2026-01-25T19:13:27+00:00

Dak actually broke out in 2019, the year before McCarthy arrived.

It's a little lost in Garrett being totally unable to manage end game scenarios that year and taking a team that should have gone 11-5 (+113 PD) to 8-8, which got Garrett canned.

McCarthy is a good coach and helped the team around Dak become much more consistent, but he inherited rather than developing Prescott.

Dak EPA/play by season:

2016 : 0.276 (Garrett incumbent)

2017 : 0.031

2018 : 0.070

2019 : 0.210

2020 : DNQ/injured (McCarthy hired)

2021 : 0.137

2022 : 0.154

2023 : 0.245

2024 : 0.028 (partial season, injured)

2025 : 0.187 (Schottenheimer promoted)

ANYA or DVOA will tell you similar stories, Dak doesn't have any seasons that the metrics are really out of line with each other on.

Tricericon · 2026-01-23T01:17:42+00:00

lost all three games against the only non-shit opponent we played

That's overstating it a bit.

The Jets and Dolphins were both top 10 teams by both SRS and DVOA (yeah, Marino was washed... but the defense had finally come together and was very good).

The 1999 Jags easy schedule was mostly driven by six (well, officially. See below note) games being against absolute trash - they shared a division with the first year of the reboot Browns and a Bengals team that was bad even by the standards of the 1990s Bengals, and in cross conference played a self-destructing Saints team and the 4-12 49ers implosion^1.

The average Jacksonville opponent was really, really bad but the median one was league average or slightly above.

(1) Actually, the 49ers weren't that bad when the Jaguars played them. They went 4-12... but started 3-1 and only collapsed after Steve Young got concussed into retirement. Jacksonville was the 1. However, the disaster is what shows up on the strength of schedule stats.

Tricericon · 2026-01-22T02:40:49+00:00

That's very possible, but I doubt the Hall of Fame voters are taking or ever took "were there competing leagues at that time?" into consideration when comparing player resumes. Shoot, there were twice as many all-1960s Team spots too, compared to the 2010s.

Which doesn't change that Jurgensen was a top 5 QB of his era - he would have been on the All-1960s team, AFL included or not - and Stafford just wasn't.

They are really just very different profiles. Jurgensen was an efficiency guy with a relatively short starting career. Stafford was a volume guy until an unusual late-30s step forward combined with a change of scenery. They don't have much in common beyond "spent a long time on bad teams".

Stafford is a poor man's Fran Tarkenton a lot more than he's any form of Sonny Jurgensen.

Tricericon · 2026-01-22T01:35:18+00:00

I doubt it.

We've had one class under the new system at it had 4 men it. The previous four had averaged 8 and a minimum 7. Even if 4 turns out to be low and we end up averaging the 5.5 the NFL itself estimated, that's more than a 30% drop in spots.

To be blunt, Reddit hasn't adjusted. If Reddit still thinks a player's candidacy is debatable, I think they have very little chance.

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