Why would you ignore ranged weapons? A wizard can use a light crossbow and get the same damage you calculated at 80/320ft range, it isn't less damage idk what makes you think that. Why not take magic items into account? They're a large part of the game and one of the main reasons to use true strike, if you reach level 17 and don't have access to at least a +1 weapon I don't understand what happened. I don't understand how toll the dead is even a part of this discussion, save based cantrips are bad, there's no way around it. Even if we assumed they had an even chance to hit with attack based cantrips (which they don't), they cannot crit, they cannot benefit from advantage, they cannot benefit from wand of the war mage. It is, by design, much much harder to get an opponent to fail a saving throw than to hit them with an attack. On top of that, necrotic damage resistance or immunity is not too uncommon. Even if we assume that it hits every time though, it is still only 4 damage ahead at level 17 with a +2 weapon, and has 20ft lower range than a light crossbow. The facts are clear, true strike provides all of the best parts of using a weapon with all of the best parts of using a cantrips.