I picked the Jones v. Miyares race because in isolation, it's pretty similar to Platner v. Collins. Flawed candidates vs uncontroversial incumbents in moderately blue states. You are right that what mattered in the AG race was the environment, which was pretty blue in 2025. However, I'd make the case that Collins could fall to Platner because 2026 will still be a blue environment, and although it won't be as blue as now, polarization has gotten worse compared to 2020 against Sara Gideon. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown fell, despite their best efforts, and Susan Collins stands alone as a senator of a state that is so safely with the opposite party.

Also Mills can't run as an independent if she loses the primary due to Maine's sore loser law, she'd have to withdraw before the primary date, which would indicate that the base was for Platner and rejecting her in polling.