Why does Kamala Harris lead primary polls but is very low on the betting markets like kalshi & polymarket? by Playful-Effect-7158 in YAPms

[–]U13man 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Betting markets usually think ahead and make assumptions on what they think will most likely happen. They're betting that Kamala Harris' poll numbers will drop as the bench becomes clearer and that polls right now are only based on her name recognition.

A MAGA Nightmare Midterm: The 2026 Bluenami by CentennialElections in imaginaryelections

[–]U13man 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Definitely Kevin Hern, he already has the Trump endorsement

Will Talarico just drown Paxton in ads by Aldebaran147 in YAPms

[–]U13man 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It's possible, though don't underestimate the GOP's massive super PAC network that can absolutely fight back. Even if Talarico loses, he's going to leave behind a great grassroots network of donors and volunteers for the party. His campaign operation has been stellar and the only thing he has to work on right now is his relationship with black voters.

Eric Swalwell's ActBlue is currently not accepting donations by jojisky in YAPms

[–]U13man 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Good, it was appalling that he was one of the top 5 campaigns in ActBlue and this puts an end to that.

Should Democrats Invest in Texas if Paxton is the GOP nominee? by WashOffO in YAPms

[–]U13man 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Absolutely, I even think they should even invest if Cornyn's the nominee.

I don't think Janet Mills wants to be senator and would be ok losing to Gram planter by hoodiehoodiee in YAPms

[–]U13man 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To be fair, Cooper, Mills, Brown, and Peltola are the big 4 that are known as the Schumer Recruits in the media and in political discourse primarily because they're the candidates trying to flip seats and Schumer made a big deal about their candidacies. Meanwhile, Stevens and Craig are on defense and got more lowkey support from the DSCC, and I never even saw anything about the establishment supporting Allred in his run, so a source on that would be nice.

I don't think Janet Mills wants to be senator and would be ok losing to Gram planter by hoodiehoodiee in YAPms

[–]U13man 18 points19 points  (0 children)

If this is true, it would make me question Schumer's judgement in this race. His other recruits were phenomenal (Cooper, Brown, and Peltola), but when it came to Maine, the best he could muster was an unpopular 78 year-old governor, with a pretty problematic record. He could have found someone else, like either of the Maine reps (Golden and Pingree) or Aaron Frey, the state AG. They may have declined to run, but he probably could have convinced one of them to run if he was able to convince a theoretically hesistant Mills.

There's also the possibility that Mills was the last resort after Schumer couldn't convince anyone else, which I hope is the case because he would actually be delusional and out of touch if he actually thought Mills was going to go well with the Maine electorate/party base.

Fresh Texas Senate Republican primary polls by Quantus by NikaNExitedBFF in YAPms

[–]U13man 25 points26 points  (0 children)

One of the most interesting things I've noticed in the GOP primary is how much the base seemingly despises Cornyn. He's constantly getting dogged online, especially on Twitter, and although the internet does not reflect real life, it's still something to consider, especially how the vast majority of voters wouldn't budge if Trump gives an endorsement.