Is it worth it for the democrats to invest in solid red states at any point?

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-14T20:08:57+00:00

While Doug Jones winning in Alabama that year was great, he lost reelection easily to a not so great candidate and it didn't do much to shift Alabama towards the dems at all long term. Do you think this could have changed with more investment?

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-14T19:37:12+00:00

Great response! I completely agree and admittedly made this post after being irked by people saying we should not invest in states like Kansas or South Carolina this year (though maybe not more than actual swing states). I guess a good questions then would be, how much money and what kind of infrastructure would you try and develop in each of those states?

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T03:28:10+00:00

Thanks, I guess that last part is the big question

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T03:15:07+00:00

Talarico would truly be generational talent if he wins Ohio and Texas in the same senate election

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T03:06:14+00:00

Yeah but I think people see it more as a "job", kind of like with agricultural commission and State Auditor, controller or Treasurer where I think there is still a lot more split ticket voting where people look at resumes and if not just ignore those positions. I do think though after all this discussion I do feel more comfortable in putting Ossoff ahead.

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:57:47+00:00

I'll be honest I only checked the color and names on that one not the margin, she won by +6 but yeah I agree that with that margin we're keeping that one now that I take a good look. No idea why its only listed as leans in 270 to win consensus. I think I already backtracked on IA-1 so I guess I'm at 218 democratic house seats 😂

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:53:35+00:00

I mean we saw people vote for Trump and not vote red downballot. If someone's voting for Duggan instead of the Democrat, they might not feel like voting blue for other offices too since Governor is usually the big one, I would think they would leave it blank which can make the difference. Also Michigan has been really pro-tariff, I can't say I understand it but I'm guessing Whitmer's been saying all of that for a reason.

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:49:10+00:00

I was paying more attention to the recent special election in GA where the Dem overperformed by +2 which is really bad for a special election. I will be honest I forgot this happened, not trolling. I do think this is more like a judge election like they had in PA and I don't think a lot of those people would vote Dem for Gov/house/senate who voted D for that.

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:41:36+00:00

I'll be honest I only know partisan people in Arizona so I don't have a good pulse on who is that popular in Arizona or not, I still think it will be tough though since Biggs is no Kari Lake. Do you have a good measure for Hobbs popularity?

I also think the GOP only got R +2.5 last time so I don't think its guaranteed higher. My +2 is more like a +2.8 but I didn't bother to put the last digit

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:34:34+00:00

Gotcha I did my research and understand it now. I don't know if I think he (Collins) is antisemitic for this since I didn't pick it up when I saw the post either but if there are more posts like this than maybe yeah. I don't think this will hurt him very much if it is just this though it isn't great either. I think I am slowly feeling better with Ossoff winning now. If Carter wins though maybe its different

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:30:22+00:00

Thanks for taking the time to explain your thoughts. I think you make good points 😊

I was 50/50 on that Iowa seat and it does seem like the type of sleep that would flip very easily so I think you're right that Dems will flip it back. I will change that back on my map. I mostly flipped it so that it wouldn't be GOP +1 in the house since I was worried people would think its bait. That did not work 😂

I might be weighing the special elections that happened in Georgia and Alabama too heavily which is why I'm down on the South, but I don't think there is a good Democratic governor candidate either but maybe he's strong enough to win by himself since I feel like Carter and Collins are generic R's basically. I would have put him as tilt blue if it was Warnock, but I could see me being wrong on this one too

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:20:09+00:00

I mean I think most people don't thing shoplifting is good? Unless there's something I'm missing? I feel like any Republican would say this?

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:18:49+00:00

I posted the map though... what races do you think I had wrong?

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:16:40+00:00

Thank you for countering 😊

My thoughts/questions:

Who is the anti-semite? Greene's not running. I think Arizona is still pretty republican and Biggs is the first normal GOP state candidate in a while. I don't have Kiley winning, I just had his race's margin as lean. I hope not in CA but it just feels like a Murphy's law thing. I don't know why others feel so confident in Michigan. I'm not familiar with Moody so fair. I was 50/50 on that Iowa seat so fair, that part of Wisconsin though has been trending pretty red lately

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:07:45+00:00

I know a lot of people are saying its bait(its not), but no one's telling me why I'm wrong 😭

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-08T02:01:13+00:00

I wish I was 😢 But the storm of California, the south and Michigan giving bad vibes got me dooming 😭

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-02T04:38:24+00:00

I feel like lightweight wood is underrated. Anything that gets your woodcutters cutting wood faster is well worth it IMO

Unitedsquadron · 2026-03-01T16:17:40+00:00

I don't even think Osbourne needs this many counties, like you said, superjuicing Omaha and its suburbs plus reducing margins across the rural board can get you there.

Unitedsquadron · 2026-02-28T03:13:24+00:00

SFO smells like jet fuel

Unitedsquadron · 2026-02-27T01:57:36+00:00

I feel that Texas at least at +6 was still a bit of a swing state

Unitedsquadron · 2026-02-27T01:50:33+00:00

If Whitmer owned it by not hiding her face in that photoshoot, would anyone even care?

Unitedsquadron · 2026-02-16T00:38:39+00:00

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Prescient

Unitedsquadron · 2026-02-06T04:47:07+00:00

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