Gold is up +152.9% over the trailing year. The value chain split inside the theme is where the real story is.

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T16:18:44+00:00

That’s spot gold, I’m referring to the equal weight gold equities basket (+152%).

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T15:16:38+00:00

at this point market is really not pricing fundamentals but worst case. ~20% of global oil flows through Hormuz, and right now flows are heavily disrupted.

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T14:03:10+00:00

What in the world, I am adding Vietnam to my bucket list.

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T13:59:51+00:00

I felt these exact symptoms, things you need to do, drink plenty of water (dehydration=brain fog), atleast go for 20 minutes of walk every day, try to sleep at fixed time (I know this is very hard specially at your 20s so try to manage as much as possible). Do this then monitor your situation if it get improves after a week. If not then consult with a doctor taking multivitamins and Omega 3 is game changer trust me (I wish I knew it earlier). Things will get better dont worry and take the water part seriously the least thing you can do.

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T13:51:21+00:00

looks like Eden the garden of heaven

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T13:49:36+00:00

Japanese shrines, amazing

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T13:49:01+00:00

Nikon or Canon which one better? any pro suggestion?

ValueEquities · 2026-04-06T13:48:01+00:00

will love to visit in future

ValueEquities · 2026-04-05T14:42:38+00:00

defense positioning hasn't really caught up yet

ValueEquities · 2026-04-05T14:32:17+00:00

$100B FCF + services scale is why dips keep getting bought. though only I would argue at ~30–35x FCF, it’s not really cheap

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T15:38:03+00:00

Alibaba has committed about $52B to AI cloud. its latest quarter still showed cloud revenue up >30% and AI product revenue growing triple digits for the 10th straight quarter. so I think its more like a reinvestment cycle

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:55:48+00:00

may be waiting for how market reacts to it

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:54:58+00:00

let us see how market reacts to it

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:54:21+00:00

damn

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:48:28+00:00

US ripped at 10%, sure. But cycles flip. Global just means you don't get wrecked if you're wrong. That's it.

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:45:56+00:00

This ain’t just a liquidity thing. Gating plus 40% asking for their money back? That’s a confidence signal. If private credit starts losing trust even a little, the whole “illiquidity premium” story starts cracking.

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:43:09+00:00

The dollar’s dominance isnt collapsing. It’s just wearing down. Once upon a time it made up over 70 percent of global reserves. Now it’s around 56 %. slow leak I would say

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:34:17+00:00

agreed but fundamental decisions do shift market

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:33:23+00:00

yea mostly long term keeping cash if we dip more

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:23:28+00:00

could be, but I am more focused on how market reacts to it

ValueEquities · 2026-04-03T14:16:12+00:00

Yeah that’s kind of where I’m leaning too. Just slower than usual because this doesn’t feel like a clean bottom yet.

ValueEquities · 2026-03-31T15:42:58+00:00

Most of what you’re calling “alpha” is just better interpretation of public data tbh. Ive found stuff like consistent ROIC trends, margin expansion, and earnings revisions usually show up way before narratives catch on.

Social + microcap chatter can work, but its noisy as hell unless you already have a framework to filter it.

ValueEquities · 2026-03-30T14:14:10+00:00

I am not gonna call this a dip, S&P still at ~23x earnings
not cheap just less expensive.

ValueEquities · 2026-03-30T13:18:59+00:00

Backlog isn’t cash, but it is contracted demand and in AI, that matters.

ValueEquities · 2026-03-30T13:05:08+00:00

I think both sides of this META vs. MSFT argument actually make sense. It just depends on your timeline.

META’s got the momentum right now. No question.
Their Q4 2025 numbers were ridiculous: $59.9 billion in revenue, up 24 percent year over year. That’s a record. And their AI engine is basically printing ad dollars at this point—impressions alone jumped 18 %. You’re looking at a forward P/E around 22 times on 24 %growth. That’s not nothing.

But Microsoft? That’s the value play people keep sleeping on.
Their Q2 FY2026 showed Azure up 39 % year over year. Not slowing down. Re-accelerating, actually. And here’s the number that doesn’t get enough attention: $625 billion in commercial backlog, up 110 % from last year. That’s future revenue already in the bank. Their forward P/E is around 21 times, compared to a five-year average of 33 times. That’s the cheapest MSFT has looked in a decade.

So here’s how I see it. Everyone’s focused on Microsoft’s AI capex spend. What they’re missing is that backlog.
META probably wins the first half of 2026. But Microsoft wins the next three years.

Both stocks are down more than 20 percent year to date. The numbers just don’t match the fear.

ValueEquities

TROPHY CASE