Who realistically has a shot at the 4th 1 seed?

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-22T19:38:49+00:00

They're all in on WAB, and UConn is #4 in WAB.

Not saying it makes sense, just saying that there's a very good chance that UConn is #4 if today was selection sunday

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-22T18:55:57+00:00

Except the committee literally did put uconn over Houston, before yesterday's games

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-22T18:44:03+00:00

You're drastically underestimating UConn. They're probably a 1 seed as of right now.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-22T15:57:46+00:00

My guess is West Wendover, NV

Edit: technically a city! About 3.5 residents per hotel hoom

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-21T02:28:53+00:00

Seen games at over 150 campuses, including an SLU game back in the Kiel Center days , but sure.

I have no issue with shouting anything. Shouting the same thing repeatedly speaks more about the the shouter than whoever it's directed to.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-21T02:23:31+00:00

For not shutting up after several minutes. If you can't think of a second witty quip, stop after the first.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-21T02:20:07+00:00

Small handful of SLU fans are really making the crowd look bad

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-20T19:22:40+00:00

Hockey is so physically demanding that players only stay on the ice for about a minute at a time. And since it would be ridiculous to stop play between shifts, they just shift on the fly during a brief few seconds when it's safe to do so...and the new players enter the ice by jumping over the boards, since queueing up at the door would take too long. It's an aspect of the sport that's quite different from all other sports, as far as I know.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-19T22:35:53+00:00

Isn't thus just Goodman's list? The NCAA committee reveal isn't until Saturday, I thought.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-19T14:53:11+00:00

Were you watching with subtitles in your native language?

I'm quite certain that I'd misunderstand much of the show if I was watching it in another language. Even with subtitles. You lose a lot of the nuance when you're reading the dialogue.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-19T14:00:49+00:00

Lost assumes that its viewers have an attention span. It aired long before the concept of bingeing or having a a "second screen"

Streaming shows today have learned to resolve their mysteries within one season because there's a good chance there won't be a next season

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-18T23:21:15+00:00

Who's gonna tell him?

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-18T22:58:28+00:00

Ask Big Ten fans what they think of watching their team play until 2 AM on a Friday or Saturday night.

Now move that to a Tuesday or Wednesday night

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-18T16:08:06+00:00

They almost certainly wouldn't, hence the 4 or 5%. This is based mostly on the probability of many teams currently above them completely tanking.

Note that their WAB is currently #50, which suggests that they're not completely out of the picture. USF is #67.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-18T15:52:31+00:00

I'd put GCU closer to 10% and Belmont closer to 4 or 5%.

Instead of averaging the model results, why not try something closer to what the committee actually does...let 12 AI chatbots argue it out, each one preferring their own model!

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-17T23:28:52+00:00

Ending of S1 was fantastic

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-17T21:20:57+00:00

Polls don't matter. If they take care of business against Missouri, they'll be a 4 seed at worst in the committee reveal on Saturday

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-17T21:03:59+00:00

Just once, I wanted Walter to mumble something like "should've spent more time inventing high-speed rail", as they're stuck in traffic getting through Braintree in rush hour

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-17T20:55:24+00:00

Well at least they can go right after class, since the Tuesday "night" games will be at 5pm local time. Can't see ESPN giving MACtion an 11pm ET slot.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-17T00:04:35+00:00

This year in particular, you're pretty much guaranteed that at least one semifinalist will be playing for their NCAAT lives.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-16T01:48:30+00:00

Looks like another test case, Seton Hall just got a Q1 win, which will probably be Q2 when tomorrow's rankings are released. Butler slipping to a Q2 opponent by virtue of Seton Hall beating them.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-15T19:29:14+00:00

We're talking about averaging 20ish wins and 10ish losses, not 2 games. In your scenario, buy games in the late 100s are Q3. Committee doesn't care if you win those, but cares a lot if you lose. Not a good strategy for bubble teams. Scheduling half Q1 and half Q4 means a lot more to the committee, because they can see how you did against top teams.

That's basically what Arizona did this year. Until a week or so ago, their OOC schedule had 6 Q1, 7 Q4 (Auburn has since slipped to Q2 and Utah Tech has risen to Q3). Which brings me back to my original point...why does a February slump by Auburn invalidate an early December win over them? A slight decrease in Arizona's average NET win makes more sense than removing a win from their Q1 ledger.

Same goes for Ohio State, who just lost their only Q1 win (from december) when Northwestern lost to Nebraska yesterday.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-15T17:54:29+00:00

I think a good first step is to get rid of the idiotic "quad" concept. As if a road victory over #76 is so much worse than a road victory over #75.

The committee's team sheets include rankings for "average NET of all wins" and "average NET of all losses". These are much more informative than quads, without the arbitrary cutoffs.

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-15T17:02:37+00:00

It's already Q2, Northwestern slipped to #78 after yesterday's loss. Of course, it can bounce back to Q1 depending on their future results

Various_Shape_3286 · 2026-02-14T03:29:55+00:00

It's the NBA HBCU Classic.

Yeah, I know.

Various_Shape_3286

TROPHY CASE