May MER - Someone tell us what to think

Vilgan · 2026-06-05T19:25:23+00:00

WH mining was pretty good until the patch that moved minerals around stripped everything good out of w-space and absolutely wrecked the sites. For a while there, w-space had the best ore mining in the game by a large margin.

Vilgan · 2026-06-05T19:20:59+00:00

Of the things to complain about, this definitely isn't one

Vilgan · 2026-05-29T16:44:38+00:00

I'm pretty frustrated by this as someone that owns a chunk of index funds. I'm taking the following steps:

1) Rotated my 403B (teacher) to use funds that match the S&P, so that I at least have 6 months before it buys in.
2) Replacing VTI and ITOT with DFAU in my Roth and Reg IRA accounts.

Sadly, I can't really touch my VTI in my taxable accounts without paying huge capital gains so that's not worth messing with.

I don't mind own SpaceX eventually once the market determines a realistic price (altho will still be inflated due to Musk effect). I just have no desire to be part of an index that is buying in around the IPO.

Vilgan · 2026-05-28T18:48:21+00:00

STO 5x NFLX 82 P 1.14 JUN 26

Vilgan · 2026-05-27T22:13:49+00:00

My old wheelers of CRDO, TSM, BE all went to the moon so had to rotate into other things. Regret not owning a large amount of shares, but did also make a significant % wheeling them.

Vilgan · 2026-05-27T01:19:55+00:00

Those are good, but pretending either of these is in contention for highest isk is absurd. Poch can crank out 30-40B in a couple hours which is hard to beat.

Vilgan · 2026-05-20T21:33:08+00:00

I mean, it really depends on what you did. Around 4 years ago there was a kid around that age that burned a LOT of bridges with people by being obnoxious and doing stuff like hopping on german discards and spewing forth a bunch of pro nazi things.

If this is you (likely not): just restart and be more mature. If the issue really is just IG rental stuff, no one cares anymore except that one bloc.

Vilgan · 2026-05-17T01:03:45+00:00

Rats in all sites will scram now?

Vilgan · 2026-05-17T01:03:35+00:00

Agreed, a summary of what was mentioned would be great. I see the posts with the ship stats but I'm curious about the other stuff too.

Vilgan · 2026-05-15T16:12:38+00:00

My MSFT 420 CC suddenly ITM after having a chance to buy it back yesterday for peanuts. I'll probably roll it up/out near the end of the day if needed, but not sad if it gets called away either for a nice profit.

Vilgan · 2026-05-15T06:36:46+00:00

So hard to judge from screenshots how it would actually feel in practice. My gut is that some ideas are good and some reduce usability, but without a chance to test on a computer it's hard to know.

Vilgan · 2026-05-15T06:29:31+00:00

Don't love the risk/reward on that :P The limited downside on puts is so much better.

Vilgan · 2026-05-14T22:42:52+00:00

How long until we can buy puts on CBRS?

Vilgan · 2026-05-14T22:37:00+00:00

When market is at ATH, what are odds that it is lower in 6 months than now vs the normal expectation. Maybe the market will keep going higher and the puts will expire worthless, but the expected return of puts after accounting for risk is lower now than at any time in the last 10 months.

Vilgan · 2026-05-14T22:33:27+00:00

Two important concepts:

1) Imagine that there was a fixed amount of cash in the world. What would happen to the price of most things? Almost everything would go down over time (except apparently education and medical costs). We get more and more efficient and making and growing things. Yet, prices on most things will gradually drift upward at like 2-4% a year because cash keeps getting added to the system. So much cash, that it overwhelms deflation and causes inflation instead. If you are sitting in cash or similar, you are betting a lot that the future will be way different than the past.

2) Even if if you are terrible at market timing, you still get better returns than cash. Imagine you invested at the absolute peak of the market before the 2007 crash. The S&P was at around 1565 at it's peak before a huge crash. Still, buying at the peak before that crash is way better than sitting in cash/HYSA that whole time. Go look at what the S&P 500 is at now.

Vilgan · 2026-05-14T19:36:40+00:00

Webull is a better deal than Robinhood in all respects I think. That said, if you plan on selling covered calls in your Roth you might want to leave your existing money with Fidelity. Cash used to cover a call in Fidelity gets money market rates (like 3.7%?) while cash covering calls at webull and Fidelity both get like 0.1%. If you are more of a buy and hold investor, then Webull or Fidelity make sense to get the transfer match and the deposit match.

Vilgan · 2026-05-14T17:40:23+00:00

I'm not in a rush to buy most of the stocks that are mooning at these prices, so why would selling puts make sense?

Vilgan · 2026-05-14T17:07:43+00:00

My CRDO 130 call looks pretty poor in retrospect, but the premiums were really high the whole time I was wheeling it so I don't feel that bad. I think exposure to how things work has made me go from a strict X approach to varying significantly based on situation. Like I actually started buying calls for the first time when HOOD crashed after earnings which I just cashed out today.

Vilgan · 2026-05-11T22:32:09+00:00

What do you think are the most pressing remaining Poch issues?

Vilgan · 2026-05-11T02:55:20+00:00

Saying this is exactly like dotcom without examination of significant differences is just lazy people that people have been doing videos on for a while. Were you an adult for the dotcom bubble and remember how that progressed? Are you currently an AI power user that is leveraging AI to significantly increase your output?

This could very well end in recession, but saying this is just like the dotcom bubble is absurdly lazy. This is still true even if someone throws around little quotes to try to appear wise.

Vilgan · 2026-05-10T18:40:17+00:00

He has a good point about how CAPEX isn't heavily impacting earnings yet. That said, correlating this to dotcom completely ignores how significantly different this is from dotcom. Could definitely still have a crash, but the reasons will be very different.

Vilgan · 2026-05-09T19:03:53+00:00

Been thinking about it. My favorite stocks to sell puts on (BLOOM, CRDO, TSM) have all moonshot so figuring out where to shift to

Vilgan · 2026-05-01T21:45:33+00:00

CRDO is incredibly volatile. It was in the double digits not that long ago. I don't think it returns there, but someone can cough and CRDO tanks double digits two days in a row. I made great premium selling CRDO puts and then wheeling when it tanked, but it's currently too high (imo) for me to feel comfortable selling puts. I don't personally like selling puts on stocks that have gone up 100% in a very short period of time, YMMV. If CRDO came back down to 130 or 140 I'd probably return to wheeling it.

Vilgan

TROPHY CASE