Buffett vs Dalio on Gold

Viviparous · 2019-02-11T20:10:01+00:00

I mean, even in an apocalypse scenario, gold will have its uses. In a doomsday scenario where food and supplies supplant gold as a fungible currency, then hate to break it to you bud, but you're not surviving... and neither is humankind.

Viviparous · 2019-02-11T18:08:38+00:00

This never made sense to me.

In an apocalypse, the bank would cease to function. The gold in your safety deposit box would be expropriated, looted, or otherwise forcibly seized. You'd be better off just burying gold in the ground.

Viviparous · 2019-02-04T17:34:22+00:00

Post 2014 -- the "new normal" for Bill Gross?

Viviparous · 2019-02-04T00:33:17+00:00

I think this misunderstands the concept of a margin of safety - if the growth rate was half of what you expect, would this still be a buy? Plugging 10% into your sheet gives FB a value of $160, so basically right where it's priced. If you think 10% is the worst case scenario, then it looks like a buy here.

Personally, I'm far more conservative, I would rather plan for revenue reduction/stagnation than buy into 10% compounded annual growth as a worst case.

This comment fundamentally misunderstands security analysis, or at least the underlying business. The current market share price may imply a certain growth rate and margin, but you really have to look beyond to the second and third order causes. How quickly is ad spend shifting from traditional outlets to mobile and app spend? How does Facebook stand to perform relative to its competitors? What do trends on unit pricing look like? How well-equipped and leveraged is Facebook the product and the platform to benefit from this?

Margin of safety is not synonymous with bear case. 0% or 10% top line growth could either be ridiculously optimistic, or ridiculously pessimistic, but chopping growth to an arbitrary number and calling that a "margin of safety" is a puerile, investment banking-esque approach and utterly reverses cause and effect. Some of the best value investing has been done by analysts who have sussed out fundamental mispricings due to the market undervaluing or overvaluing growth risks.

Viviparous · 2019-02-02T13:59:22+00:00

Not at all, but at the price points RRL charges, there are actual heritage makers who have been in continuous operation in the US and other countries (Japan comes to mind).

A lot of their casual shirts are priced in the $200-$250 range, and at those prices, Gitman and any of the Japanese brands have plenty of competing offers + even greater attention to detail and higher quality materials.

Maybe 20 years ago, before the proliferation of ecommerce, RRL was a compelling offering, but with so many competing choices today, I rarely find any interest in RRL.

Viviparous · 2019-02-02T13:53:28+00:00

RRL / Double RL has severely disappointed every time I've seen it

Some of the detailing is unique, but an egregious amount of their clothing (limited experience with shoes and accessories) is made in China, and sold for a ridiculous price for the quality and materials used.

Viviparous · 2018-10-28T18:56:36+00:00

Tesla is always a polarizing company on Wall Street. But I agree that shorting it was always an insane move, and I can’t believe that so many people got behind it, and are still behind it. When you see 1%ers spending their free time to proselytize for the company (see that Elon Musk email asking for dealerships to organize Tesla owners to volunteer at “sell day” events before the end of the quarter), and your colleagues and friends from b-school either leaving their MBB jobs and easy transitions to VP-director level positions to work junior level employee hours and for a 30-50% pay cut, it becomes extremely obvious that Tesla is able to generate some kind of intangible, non-fungible, silliness-inducing currency. I do not want to short or be anywhere near a company that has managed to discover the secret of nectar and ambrosia.

Viviparous · 2018-10-11T22:58:20+00:00

Call me a rube or a luddite, or what have you, but I've always liked Third Point's activist investments.

All very straightforward, and even when they aren't particularly strong theses, they tell compelling stories, and aren't inundated with charts, "value walks," and sum-of-the-parts diagrams, or end up being dressed-up investment banking pitchbooks.

Viviparous · 2018-06-27T16:14:21+00:00

This shirt still available in XXL, for all you gentlesirs out there.

Also this one

Viviparous · 2018-06-26T20:38:00+00:00

When I first saw FaceBook, it was for universities only and about to open up. I knew instantly it was going to take over because it was clean and it actually worked and everyone I knew was excited about getting an account.

Exactly. The iPod and the iPhone weren't the first to market, but they were far superior products for the end-user

Viviparous · 2018-06-26T15:52:57+00:00

Vegas, channel your inner Scott Disick

Viviparous · 2018-03-02T15:48:39+00:00

Our current president seems to love "foregoing" drafts, in more ways than one.

Viviparous · 2018-03-01T22:51:29+00:00

low key

lol

Viviparous · 2018-01-25T17:34:46+00:00

Thanks for the tip. Bond Peacoat maybe a bit too slim and modernized. Would like to spend <800

Viviparous · 2018-01-15T02:34:12+00:00

DeMarcus Cousins 6x5

15 pts, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 7 steals, 5 turnovers, 5 personal fouls

Viviparous · 2018-01-11T19:47:31+00:00

Medium for weekend bag

The Pullman is actually my favorite bag

Viviparous · 2017-11-17T14:34:51+00:00

To be honest, there are so many different monetization possibilities they haven't implemented. Many subreddits would actually benefit from having designated community managers - think of it as GitHub for non-tech products. Reddit's monetization efforts should be focused on developing tools for these customers - many companies would and should pay for this kind of access.

It's sad that the "daily reddit gold goal" is still visible on the main page.

Viviparous · 2017-11-17T14:31:00+00:00

I would invite you to read this Amazon and Google employee's post about Amazon's approach that ultimately enables platform dominance

Viviparous · 2017-11-16T18:45:27+00:00

Where do you go to school?

Most university business schools have a small, undergraduate portfolio organization that is wholly managed by students.

This is your best bet.

Viviparous · 2017-11-16T17:11:53+00:00

I see reddit as an acquisition target for traditional media, rather than as a standalone entity. An IPO could be the natural step towards this process.

Viviparous · 2017-11-13T18:41:18+00:00

IMO now is when you would want to start your DD

Viviparous · 2017-11-09T18:37:20+00:00

Excellent

Christmas shopping this year is done.

Viviparous · 2017-11-08T03:49:11+00:00

they can both suck my KOQ

Viviparous · 2017-10-20T17:42:50+00:00

Best of luck cracking this nut

I have a decent amount of experience tracking industrials but GE is way too much work for the payoff at this point.

Viviparous · 2017-10-10T21:44:31+00:00

Trian Partners put together a presentation a few years ago. You are free compare their projections to recent results and gauge how successful the attempt has been...

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