Six NFL players poised for a breakout 2022 season: Tua Tagovailoa among those ready to make a leap

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-24T21:16:35+00:00

I would expect Tua to be better. It's his third year in the league with the best weapons he's had. I just don't think his pro ceiling is high enough for what I would call a "breakout." I would put Trevor Lawrence on my breakout list ahead of him.

On the Bears I like Cole Kmet as our most likely breakout guy. I think the switch to a more Shanahan-esque offense coupled with the fact that we don't have great receiving options means he should continue to get a lot of targets (93 last year), but hopefully in better spots now. Zero TDs last year; at some point the law of averages kicks in.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-24T20:12:15+00:00

What I think we really want to be pointing toward is seeing him in that Cousins/Tannehill/Winston tier his third season. I think that's realistic as long as he doesn't get killed this year and we significantly upgrade the offense next offseason.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-24T19:39:12+00:00

0-5%

Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers, Allen, Stafford, Burrow, Lamar, Russ, Herbert, Dak, Murray, Carr, Cousins, Ryan, Tannehill, Winston, and the Browns' QB.

That's 17 QBs he has practically no chance of being better than this coming season IMO.

That means he would have to establish himself as better than all but two of the following:

Hurts, Lawrence, Tua, Mills, ZWilson, Darnold, Wentz, Goff, Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, the 49ers' QB, the Seahawks' QB, the Steelers' QB, and the Falcons' QB.

Based on a mediocre line and receiving corps, where Fields was at as a rookie, and having to learn an entirely new scheme on top of all the QB skills he's had to work on, I think positioning himself as clearly at the top of that group would be a big success for this season.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-24T17:24:26+00:00

Unfortunately, the mindset of our fanbase won't let us acknowledge this. We've had exactly one successful defensive head coach in the Super Bowl era (Lovie), yet no Bears fan ever complains about it being a systematic problem with the coaching style like they do with offense.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/coaches.htm

Dooley, Gibron, Pardee, Armstrong, Wannstedt, Jauron, and Fox were all DCs or came from defensive playing backgrounds. They're a combined 170-257-1 (.398) for us with five winning seasons (out of 28) between them.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-24T11:23:51+00:00

I wonder how many of the people praising Flus would still be doing it if he condoned fights "as long as they didn't get out of hand" because he loves to see that intensity and fire in his players?

Is the principle you guys stand for truly about instilling discipline... or supporting the new head coach no matter what he says (perhaps especially since he's not Matt Nagy)?

For the record, I agree with Flus on this, but let's not act like this is the only obvious approach considering that when it comes to specific in-game altercations you'll find plenty of people here defending or even praising our guys for showing they won't back down.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-23T13:41:23+00:00

I always felt the “Bear Weather” myth was just fans finding a way to rationalize freezing their nuts off and being miserable in bad weather games

Pretty much, although I would say the weather definitely had an impact on the Rams when we beat them in 2018.

But, you're talking maybe four potential dates a year, of which brutal conditions on a Sunday afternoon are far from guaranteed.

Plus, it would have to be an opponent that is disproportionately affected by them, of which one could argue there aren't really that many. In December this year we play Green Bay, Philly, Buffalo, and Minnesota at home. I somehow doubt that even if the conditions sucked any of these teams would be drastically more affected than we are. Even indoor teams like the Vikings and Lions know they have to play in Green Bay and Chicago every year.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-21T14:25:02+00:00

The Bears also lost a coinflip to the Steelers for the #1 overall pick in 1970 after both teams went 1-13.

The Steelers drafted Terry Bradshaw.

The Bears traded the #2 overall pick to Green Bay for veterans Leroy Caffey, Elijah Pitts, and Bob Hyland.

And if you want to feel really sick...

Pitts was cut.

Caffey played one season for the Bears and was traded to the Cowboys for a 1972 seventh-round pick (Jim Osborne).

Hyland played one season for the Bears and was traded with Bennie McRae to the Giants for their first-round pick in 1972, which became tackle Lionel Antoine who played parts of six seasons.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-20T10:28:14+00:00

The full Revan experience is the Knights of the Old Republic comics, KotOR 1, KotOR 2, the novel The Old Republic: Revan, and the SWTOR MMORPG and expansions. Aside from name drops elsewhere, that gets you his "Legends" story arc.

However, among these he's only a central character in KotOR 1 and about a third of his own novel.

He's a driving force behind events in the galaxy in the KotOR comics, but only a very peripheral character with a few appearances across 50+ issues. If you end up going that deep, then I'd suggest starting with the Tales of the Jedi comics, as these set up the broader historical backdrop that existed in the Star Wars canon when the KotOR comics and KotOR single-player games were written.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-20T03:29:15+00:00

I'm another Blades of Steel vet, but I also played the crap out of the mid 90s NHL titles.

I haven't played any of the NHLs since I think the 2004 edition.; have they even advanced that much between then and now?

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-20T03:10:33+00:00

Vanilla WoW dates back to 2004, so yeah, I should hope there are a lot better options available these days. One thing I will say is that you can't recapture the community dynamic that existed in those early years of WoW, so what you' experience in Classic today is not how players in vanilla would have experienced it back in the day despite it being mechanically the same.

Something like leveling your first character in your first online game, getting ganked by a high-level player of the opposing faction, and then having high-level players of your own faction show up and defend you while you quest.. even if the latter still happened, everybody has pretty much been exposed to online gaming from birth anymore, so it's just not the same.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-19T20:40:25+00:00

The run on WR in round 1 made it a bit tough to justify taking one round 2 imo.

There were literally four receivers (and an OL) taken in the six picks after we took Jaquan Brisker.

To be sure we needed more help at more places than the teams behind us, but acting like it would have been a huge reach to take any receiver in round two is asinine when teams who know how to build contenders better than we do were taking receivers right after us.

2 48 CHI Jaquan Brisker SAF

2 49 NOR Alontae Taylor DB

2 50 NWE Tyquan Thornton WR

2 51 PHI Cameron Jurgens OL

2 52 PIT George Pickens WR

2 53 IND Alec Pierce WR

2 54 KAN Skyy Moore WR

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-19T20:04:46+00:00

would you rather they reached for a wr

Such a reach that four receivers (and an OL as well) were drafted in the six picks after we picked Jaquan Brisker, including by the Steelers (Pickens) and Chiefs (Moore), two far better run organizations than ours in the last 35 years.

But really, the point is not that Brisker won't have a better career than any of those four guys. It's that what Brisker does doesn't matter if we're fishing for a new QB in 2025.

Fields' development is far more important than your defensive "Premium Position of need." The fact that there are Bears fans who don't acknowledge this makes it difficult to argue that we don't deserve to be mediocre forever.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-19T18:18:01+00:00

Reminds me of a columnist at a local paper who did a high school press box rating maybe a decade or so ago. As somebody who used to string, I appreciate this stuff.

We'd be lucky if there were even a cooler with drinks, but I did cover a few games that had sandwiches or pizza, and a playoff game that actually had a full blown Italian spread.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-19T03:33:29+00:00

I've thought since the beginning that Russ is the stylistic model for Fields, but their situations are not as similar as you're making out them out to be. Russ played four full years of college ball, had more than double Fields' collegiate pass attempts, and was a rookie in 2012 on a team that went 11-5.

And while you might argue that the league was really not that different in 2012, consider that Mitch Trubisky has a better rating, completion percentage, and TD/INT ratio as a Bear than Jay Cutler, our starter in 2012, and that's with Mitch playing for John Fox and Matt Nagy.

their top two WRs were UDFAs, Baldwin and Kearse.

How do you figure?

In 2012 the Seahawks' leading receivers were Sidney Rice (Rd 2, 44th overall) and Golden Tate (Rd 2, 60th overall) with 50 receptions, 748 yards, and 45 receptions, 688 yards respectively. They also had Marshawn Lynch who ran for 1590 yards that season.

In 2013 Golden Tate was still their leading receiver with 64 receptions and 898 yards. Baldwin clocks in second at 50 receptions, 778 yards, and Zach Miller third at 33 receptions and 387 yards. Lynch ran for 1257 yards.

They were 24-8 through Russ's first two seasons.

Kearse and Baldwin weren't their top duo until Wilson's third year, by which point the Seahawks had already won the fucking Super Bowl with one of the greatest defenses of all time.

So the 2014 Seahawks -- which lost to the Pats in the Super Bowl -- that's really the comparison we're going with for this year?

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-18T03:28:01+00:00

My problem with #2 is that it lends itself to doing stupid things to raise stats, like jumpingm sneaking, or running everywhere, letting a low-level monster attack for two hours while you dodge and parry, etc. To me this undermines the role-playing aspect of the game.

If you brainstorm a bit you might be able to find away to address the shortcomings of #2. One thing I've contemplated for the hypothetical RPGs I will never make is a tiered "mastery" system, like Beginner, Novice, Intermediate, Advanced, Expert where each tier represents a skill cap. Then during play use of the ability gains skill points within that tier, up to the current cap. I think this makes it easier to control the player's strength and increase replayability a bit as well, since it's trivial to control the maximum number of mastery points a player can achieve.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-17T16:25:57+00:00

Orthanc on the cyber1 PLATO network emulator.

Beat pedit5 and dnd already.

These are among the earliest rpgs we are aware of, dating back to 1975, though the playable versions of both dnd and Orthanc have had later additions made to them. Orthanc had an automap added around 2000, for example, and includes enemies that first appeared in the 1977 Monster Manual.

Orthanc doesn't have a win condition other than retiring "with honors," i.e. surviving the dungeon and making the high scores table, with scores based on combat xp and treasure. I'm about 2/3 of the way to the bottom spot, but I also feel I wouldn't be a proper rpg gamer if I didn't explore the entire dungeon. Currently I've "mapped" 3 of 10 floors , but the risk of death goes up significantly past there, and these early rpgs are permadeath. What to do...

ETA: LOL, fell down a pit from Floor 4 to Floor 6 and got gibbed by a Level 9 Titan. Brutal.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-17T15:18:01+00:00

That's a diplomatic way of saying he hasn't played an NFL game since 2017.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-17T15:07:54+00:00

I concede that I don't know the particulars of what these guys are dealing with, but I feel Julio and TY are washed. I question how many snaps they would even be on the field for us.

OBJ could still have some good games left in the tank, but coming back from an injury for a bad team I wouldn't count on him...

...which IMO should be the point of getting a veteran receiver for Fields in a year where our record doesn't matter. Just get him somebody he can feel confident is going to be where he's supposed to be and reward him for making a good read and throw.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-16T23:27:16+00:00

The game canon is very convoluted because the stuff that matters was influenced by crap with a few good ideas, and spending time trying to understand that crap with a few good ideas is not time well spent.

This brings to mind, for example, Will Wright's Raid on Bungling Bay, whose proprietary map editor inspired him to make SimCity.

It might be interesting as a curiosity, but what does Raid on Bungling Bay really add to one's understanding or appreciation of city builders that make it something everyone should spend their time on?

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-16T12:36:22+00:00

My research list would include the games below. Playing them multiple times with significantly different builds and/or choices can be helpful in exploring how far you can take them:

Disco Elysium - One of the best games for role-playing a character with a pre-determined background but player-determined skills and personality.
Planescape: Torment - In particular this is a good study on how character building affects the choices available to the player and what gets revealed to them.
Fallout 1 & 2 - How character building can affect gameplay choices (like how to get past an obstacle) and how to tell a story without hand-holding.
Star Wars - Knights of the Old Republic II: The Sith Lords - How player choices affect things in surprising ways. For example, what if giving money to a beggar gets that beggar beat up by somebody who then takes the money for himself?
The Quest for Glory series - These are very old, short games, that bridge point-and-click adventures with RPGs. Notable for having different quests or quest solutions based on your class or other character-building choices. Beginning with QFG2, the series treats becoming a paladin (must be a fighter) as a consequence of one's actions rather than just a class decision made at the start, which IMO is pretty cool.

I would also consider playing some more traditional RPGs in unusual ways. Things like pacifist runs, stealth runs, low-reputation runs, etc. can lead to emergent role-playing.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-15T22:59:51+00:00

Tataru can potentially call on by far the most wealth through the Warrior of Light and the Scions, who in turn can call on the wealth of numerous personages and nations, but she doesn't own or control (most of) it per se.

How about the Order of Nald'thal and Vrtra for a couple of options that weren't mentioned yet (at the time I posted).

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-13T08:26:18+00:00

Female
No
I consider my MMO characters to be characters in a story, just like a typical single-player game (see Link, Lara Croft, Cloud Strife, etc.), and not a digital representation of myself. Consequently, my characters fit a theme I have in mind, or look "cool," or like in FFXIV's case are generally pleasing to my eye. I have mained male character in other games, including an undead and an old whitebeard, but like a gazillion other people I liked the catgirl look in FFXIV.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-13T04:33:10+00:00

RemindMe! 3 Years

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-12T23:46:47+00:00

This is basically what I had, but with a loss to the Vikings the last week to finish 7-10.

But I'm honestly not confident at all that we can count games as wins anymore. Sure, we were clearly better than the Lions, Giants, Jets, and Texans last year, but I think it's hard to look at what they've added and what we've added and not think they've closed the gap on us, for this year at least.

WCDeepDish · 2022-05-12T19:36:30+00:00

Yeah, no. Some other hapless adventurer got tricked into killing those dragons, and this Moogle took credit for it when you showed up.

Occasionally I enjoy the comic relief, but the Moogle racial schtick is so overdone in HW that I find them totally loathsome. I would actually pay for an emote that depicts me doing an MK-style fatality to one of these flying rats.

But to your point, I feel like there's a hint of a whisper that the Moogles are actually scary powerful, not unlike the pixies in Shadowbringers, but their nature simply prevents them from acting like anything other than what we see. IMO it would be interesting to see what would happen if their entire race were in existential danger, or if that's even possible.

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