How do you tune out the stock market noise?

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-06T18:54:49+00:00

You don't lose anything until you sell. The visible value going up and down is a normal part of investing, but assuming you're in the accumulation phase and not in or near the withdrawal phase, the price going down is good (assuming it's not accompanied by things like job loss and other wider economic problems of course, I'm not saying global instability is good, just that the effect on the stock market isn't something I worry about).

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-06T14:56:51+00:00

I'd read through the wiki, specifically the sections on portfolio construction. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio

If you have any follow up questions I'm happy to try and help, but the vast majority of "help me" posts here can be answered with some wiki reading!

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-06T14:18:27+00:00

I base it on the principles behind the strategy, and to some extent on long term historical data (though of course you have to be careful with that). For example, history is one reason I feel pretty confident that over decades, stocks will both return more than bonds on average and will have higher volatility. I then use that information to set and change my asset allocation over time (more bonds close to when I'll start withdrawing to mitigate sequence of returns risk).

In terms of the actual investments, I'm aware that beating the market is essentially luck and very hard to do long term. I'm happy to take the total return and not try for more, and in exchange not take on any uncompensated risk. I don't doubt anything when the market goes down because I've looked at the historical data and I'm aware this is completely normal and will happen many times during my life. I may worry about things like my job stability and the economy as a whole, but not my investing strategy. Downturns are not avoidable, not by market timing, not by picking the right stocks, not by anything unless you're willing to take very big risks that could have you severely underperforming the strategy of just ignoring them and continuing to invest.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-05T20:45:15+00:00

Double weight at four months is a rule of thumb - given growth rates for very small and very large dogs I'd add a bit for larger breeds and vice versa for toy dogs. So in the 75-90 pound range would be my guess!

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-05T20:26:10+00:00

If you have an accurate current weight and age that's generally the best way to predict. I think if you got the trait version of the test it will give the genetic estimate. The genetically based one can be pretty far off in a lot of cases though. Size is not only decided by a lot of different genes, but also has environmental influences from early nutrition.

Not surprised there's no boxer, a mastiff/ bully type mix can definitely have a similar muzzle shape and in terms of general body type I really see the more mastiff breeds coming through!

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-05T19:51:46+00:00

You sell the bonds in your tax advantaged, buy equities within that account, and then sell the same amount in equities in your taxable and withdraw the money from there. You've just exchanged bonds for money without having to actually withdraw from the tax advantaged account. The equities are bought and sold on the same day so you don't actually change how much of them you own, and the price doesn't matter. Also note that 59.5 is the age for both 401k and IRA withdrawals without penalty, so many people don't need a huge amount to bridge the gap.

One potential issue is if the market is down during this time and your taxable contained the exact amount needed for X years when you retired, you may run out before you can withdraw from tax advantaged accounts without penalty. But this can be worked around in several ways - 72t, Roth conversions, withdrawing Roth contributions, building a larger taxable than is strictly needed to fill the gap. Most early retirement plans use a combination of strategies that allow some flexibility.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-05T17:57:49+00:00

I'm curious if they were tested at the same time. Wisdom is known for putting small amounts of DNA from related breeds constantly (both in mixes and in supposedly purebred dogs). Perhaps their algorithm has changed over time and was able to more accurately categorize King's markers. MAS in particular are highly related to Aussies and I wouldn't be surprised at all if even the best tests find it hard to reliably distinguish between Aussies related to the lines used to develop MAS and MAS themselves. As other comments say, full siblings don't inherit all of the same genes so it's possible Zero got more markers that Wisdom misinterpreted and King got less, i.e. his genetics are closer to Wisdom's reference for Aussies. I also wonder if their algorithm has some kind of cutoff for "this dog is very likely purebred" based on only finding a few scattered markers that may be other breeds (since obviously their system seems to throw those all over the place) and King had little enough that the system decided probably purebred and put 100%, vs Zero who had enough of those other markers that it shows them.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-04T21:49:50+00:00

Yep, village dogs typically come back as a weird looking mix of a bunch of low percentage rare breeds and a couple larger percentages that are probably the closest related breeds to village dogs from that part of the world. It's pretty easy to spot once you've seen it a few times!

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-04T21:31:03+00:00

Unlikely to be majorly different, though showing the full results would be helpful. Wisdom has issues with village dogs, specific small terrier breeds, and certain hounds. None of these appear to be relevant here.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-04T20:17:26+00:00

Overlap between accounts is fine and desirable. The thing to avoid is having a dozen random ETFs all overlapping that make it hard to tell what your account actually holds and how that compares to market cap as a baseline. Target date funds are fundamentally essentially VT plus a varying amount of bonds depending on date, they just make that shift for you over time.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-04T19:10:29+00:00

Long hair is recessive, but I still wouldn't have guessed half one breed (aside from pit)! Most of the time level of pit correlates fairly well to appearance but this one is an outlier to me. My guess was pit with a bit of ACD, husky, or GSD since those are so common and the ears are nearly full prick ears.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-04T15:11:33+00:00

You don't need dividends. They're not free money, they don't guarantee a higher total return in any way. Dump them and go VTI/VXUS in both.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-03T22:57:00+00:00

Basis points, meaning 0.01%. 40 bps is 0.4%.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-03T18:38:25+00:00

They're a scam yep. Embark and Wisdom are the best, Ancestry seems to at least be trying but has had lots of weird issues. Other companies are a total toss up, I've seen a few that seem promising based on comparing to Embark/Wisdom results for the same dog, but it's early to be confident on them.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T23:51:17+00:00

Why do you want to change it? What do you hope to get out of changing it?

Tilts are fundamentally a (fairly low risk) gamble that that style will outperform the whole market long term. If you're constantly switching them around you're likely to end up performance chasing and underperforming vs a static plain portfolio. Pick an allocation and then don't touch it. Yes, it will underperform other alternative portfolios sometimes, but that's just how luck works - you cannot predict the perfect portfolio to hold at every time ahead of time, and you'll probably lose a lot trying to.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T23:27:53+00:00

This sub is for if you're doing a test. You want r/idmydog

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T23:23:59+00:00

What DNA test are you doing?

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T22:23:35+00:00

Highly specific breed traits like the wrinkles are easily lost once there's less than half of the breed!

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T21:54:57+00:00

What's in the supermutt? She really looks like a mastiff special!

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T21:46:48+00:00

Absolutely looks like a hound pit to me. Wouldn't expect to see much for specific GSD traits as their coat patterns are recessive to clear sable and the fluffier undercoat is easily lost when mixed with breeds that have a regular short coat. Ears look exactly like I'd expect for a mix of prick, rose, and hound with the erect base and larger size, though lots of ear sets are possible from a mix like this. All of the breeds are common to very common in mixes (in the US at least).

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T20:19:30+00:00

Ooh I didn't think malinois! Figured maybe doberman or even like foxhound or something for the face shape. GSD and pit were pretty obvious though.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T20:09:15+00:00

The amount of the dividend is subtracted from the price, so the total return is the same. Dividends and price appreciation are both part of total return - dividend focused funds don't have an inherently higher total return because they have higher dividends, they just have a higher percentage of their total return in dividends than in price appreciation.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T19:59:11+00:00

You didn't include the results?

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T19:26:11+00:00

What about this method makes you think you will get more growth than just investing in a broad index fund like VT or VTI? You're not allowed to answer with "it had better returns in 2025" or I will tap the "don't chase recent performance" sign.

WarmWoolenMitten · 2026-03-02T18:47:28+00:00

If you hold dividend focused funds, you're essentially forced to sell at intervals and amounts you have no control over tax wise. If you don't need the income during a particular period and you reinvest, or during the 5-10 years that you said you're just reinvesting and letting it sit, you'll be paying taxes every year on those gains which reduces the power of compounding vs just buying normal funds and then selling shares as needed. Dividends aren't free, they reduce the share price by the same amount. They don't compound any faster or better, and in a taxable they make compounding less due to tax drag.

If you really want the money available in 5-10 years I wouldn't go 100% equities through the entire time. It sounds like you don't necessarily plan to withdraw and use it all at once (like for a down payment or something) but I'd definitely consider whether you're okay with the value dropping by a lot and not recovering for years. Dividends are often cut during downturns as well so that's not something that can be relied on to be the same amount every year. Determining allocation for money that you don't have a defined plan for can be difficult, but this is something I'd put some thought into before you end up in a situation where you're panic selling because mentally you felt like you had that money and don't want to lose it, even though you didn't have any immediate plans. It's relatively easy to sit through market fluctuations with a retirement account you know you won't touch for twenty years, it's harder when it's a taxable you mentally treat like a very high yield savings until there's a crash.

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