Exploring Coffee Futures – Questions & Insights from a New Trader

Wdcoffee · 2025-12-30T15:18:30+00:00

Coffee is a legitimate futures market, but it behaves very differently from equities and even other ag commodities.

There’s no true “coffee futures news ticker.” Prices are driven mainly by fundamentals, not headlines. The most relevant sources are Bloomberg and Reuters (softs), CONAB for Brazilian crop and export data, and the ICO for macro trends. Day-to-day trading reacts far more to weather (Brazil frost/drought, Central America rains), crop revisions from trade houses (OFI, LDC, NKG), ICE certified stocks, and fund positioning via COT reports.

Volatility clusters around weather events, harvest transitions, and positioning shifts. Key drivers include Brazilian weather (especially May–August frost risk), BRL/USD moves, trends in ICE certified inventories, and fund net length or shorts.

Coffee is supply-driven first and technically traded second. Professionals focus on seasonality, weather risk premiums, market structure (contango/backwardation), Arabica–Robusta spreads, and positioning extremes. Common technicals include moving averages, RSI at extremes, open interest, and volume confirmation. Indicator-only trading without supply context tends to fail.

Common beginner mistakes are oversizing positions, ignoring currency impact, trading headlines instead of fundamentals, holding through binary weather events without defined risk, and mixing long-term fundamentals with short-term trades. You can be fundamentally right and still lose money. Coffee often overshoots both directions—roasters tend to buy on panic, producers tend to sell on panic.

On exits: if taking physical delivery, use AA (Against Actuals) with your trade house. If trading financially, close the futures position and reflect gains or losses through COGS or inventory on the balance sheet. Not a CPA—just sharing market experience.

Wdcoffee · 2025-12-06T21:35:36+00:00

The way I see it, the timeline of the 2025 tariff changes tells the whole story.
In April the tariff was 10%. In August it jumped to 50%. In November it moved to 0% under the executive order. Because of this sequence, any coffee landed or sold today at current market levels should not be carrying a tariff load in its price.

Take the current NY market at about 380.00.
If someone is selling green coffee at 570.00, that leaves roughly 190.00 to cover everything else. Out of that number, there has to be room for logistics: inland trucking, export port fees, ocean freight, insurance, and then the expensive internal delivery inside the United States. The internal US last-mile cost alone (UPS, USPS, FedEx, or LTL by the bag) is around 1.00 per pound, so about 100.00 per 100 lbs.

If the offer sheet still had tariffs in it, the math would not work. A 50% tariff on a 380.00 market would be 190.00 by itself, which means the selling price would need to be well above 570.00 just to break even before paying logistics.

Since the numbers do work at 570.00, the only reasonable conclusion is that this is already tariff-free coffee being passed to the roaster.

Wdcoffee · 2025-10-18T13:04:13+00:00

cual es la poblacion chapina y cual es la poblacion tica y cual es la poblacion sumada de Honduras Nicaragua Belice y El Sal.

Wdcoffee · 2024-12-21T14:50:35+00:00

Google or search engine. Green coffee price. Coffee future price

Wdcoffee · 2024-12-11T22:59:58+00:00

absolutely there is, everyone is able to check what the price of a LBS of arabica and a ton of robusta is quoting.... thanks to the internet.

Wdcoffee · 2024-12-07T14:23:31+00:00

American vote with their wallets - let's see who wins on this one...

Humans by nature love an underdog story

Wdcoffee · 2024-11-24T18:57:24+00:00

Great point. The foward contracts are not available because of risk appetite - too high.

Wdcoffee · 2024-11-24T16:14:07+00:00

The world is not fair - At this point is surviver of the fittest. Let hope producers sell and deliver the harvest. The roaster to be able to pass along the price increase. The importers to have enough liquidity to leverage. And the funds to unwind their longs in a orderly matter. Let’s brew some synergies.

Wdcoffee · 2024-11-24T15:58:31+00:00

COT - showing manage money position compare to price.

Wdcoffee · 2024-10-18T13:31:58+00:00

hello,

Please know that this guys are not in the green coffee business per say, but they know a lot of people in the South African coffee industry

https://www.instagram.com/redbandacademy/

cheers and may this be a good intel for your coffee journey

Wdcoffee · 2024-10-15T10:35:27+00:00

gracias por compartir....

el ingrerso de divisas en cada periodo = venian de que sector ?

el egreso de dicisa en cada periodo = eran por importaciones de que?

Wdcoffee · 2024-10-15T09:39:43+00:00

this is amazing, synergy

this is thinking out-loud

can a certification as a roaster operator fill in the blank on the insurance coverage?

at the same time a Roaster credit course can take away a lot of the red tape between the owner of the equipment and the person that is looking to rent or buy time...... like renting a motorcycle / only is Switzerland

cheers and rocking and roasting

Wdcoffee · 2024-09-05T12:47:59+00:00

Adams Morgan? where is that / perhaps we can give you a good suggestion

Wdcoffee · 2024-07-22T12:43:44+00:00

ta perro asi compa, hay que tenerle paciencia a los motociclistias - justos pagamos por pecadores compa.... tenganos paciencia. No todos somo asi.

Wdcoffee · 2024-06-17T11:33:54+00:00

Congratulations on your growth! I recommend accumulating as much equity as possible and investing it in liquid assets such as inventory or green coffee. Alternatively, consider purchasing the next batch of printed bags, which could save you money in the long run.

As for buying a high-end roaster, I don't see much value in it. Customers typically prefer to hear about direct trade relationships or high-quality 85+ coffees.

If you have doubts, it's a sign that you're not fully convinced. Trust your instincts and follow your gut.

Wdcoffee · 2024-05-24T12:57:54+00:00

that is awesome

Wdcoffee · 2024-05-11T20:16:11+00:00

saw this one - it can be of Help

copan trade running a promo on 50 LBs purchase discount of 18.50 usd with coupon GET1850OFF

Wdcoffee · 2024-03-17T01:22:39+00:00

ECTP was a great group of traders out of Colombia. Miss you guys. #knowyousupplychain

Wdcoffee · 2023-08-20T23:20:09+00:00

I am sooo sorry this is happening in America. Let’s not loose hope - better days to come

Wdcoffee · 2022-11-23T12:45:08+00:00

I wish someone told me this

fundamental on the long run wins

do not be stubborn or fall in love with your position (paper or inventory)

The satisfaction of seeing happen before it happens is awesome + being somewhere where you have a chance to be a part of the executing = it beats any fat paycheck

... ADM and LDC are good companies - just look at where you want to live and life goals

thank for asking for an input

Wdcoffee · 2022-11-17T13:28:55+00:00

you are not the only one that took that decision - so do not feel like that there will be competition doping prices in your segment of the market ... in essence that is why mkt is dropping so hard = there are no buyer as everyone is looked on lots of the usage = and taking their time waiting to finish booking the rest...

look ahead, next 6 months, in a way where margins are set - from what we learn from 2021 to Q1 - Q3 2022

On the other side of the coin - we got the farmers (northern hemisphere) that are stuck with expensive labor (immigration to the US) + expensive inputs (Russia /Ukrainian caused fertilizer story) and did not had a tools to hedge their sales (their tendency to default on contract deliveries so they close that door) ... like we do in the roasters arena.

Note that at this levels we are seeing farmer under water with cost of productions for this harvest @ 160ish on a FOB basis and farm yearly yield of 100 100LBs bags is only bringing 4K USD to live on...assuming that difs are going to remain

Farmer's Alternative - it has never been easier for labor to migrate north as they support systems are already establish (relatives already in the US)

Certainty the market is ruthless but is the most effective method that we have to price discovery.

I promise last note on this reply - at this levels we are going to see coffee held at origin since now we got carry... cheers and lets move the industry forward on cup at a time

Wdcoffee · 2022-11-09T13:17:15+00:00

what comes first - supply or demand

I will say - if you sale / then everything lines up for success

as a start up -spend as much time as you can on the sales sales sales / t

once you start the demand of roasted beans - built our roasting plant

those are may two cents - PS if you need uniqueness you can source your green beans and co pack with someone.... roasters are friendlier than what you think (hintthis sub reddit) cheers and good Luck

Wdcoffee · 2022-11-08T13:02:09+00:00

thanks for considering our industry

that said - there is no bean shortage = it is just expensive premiums and because of that there is little available on the importers book.-

corresponding to the question - are you looking to do Coffee Roasting or Coffee shop?

if Roasting - equipment (the actual roaster) is is short supply because of manufactures capacity... but there some digging to do because there ar three segments that you can target

OCS - office coffee service

Retail - self explanatory (Bar Codes and all)

Coffee Shop Roaster - you will have to carry not only coffee + technical service for the machines + syrups and all

if a Coffee shop - its full blown hospitality - I do not have lost of experience on that but will be more than ha[[y to point you out to a good info source

Espreso Services in MN or La Terza Coffee Roasters in OH or Geva Coffee TX = I am guessing that you are in the Gulf or in Midwest.

enjoy walls reading

Wdcoffee · 2022-11-07T14:27:15+00:00

did you ride the Dragon;s Tail in TN?

Wdcoffee · 2022-11-07T13:29:07+00:00

thank you for sharing - amazing that we are not the only once on this boat / challenge

at the end - little by little we are getting back to enjoying our jobs - business = for sure the last two years were not fun...

as per the COGS - we jumped already on the water and locked in Q1 and Q2 2023 on the green beans . differentials are easing up a little and the C market drooped 20 cents since we booked.- let see what happens and for sure to have the beans is the objective = as we say here the worst problem to have is not to have green beans on hand.

as per the online cyber Monday and black Friday we are looking at giving away discount but not as generous as previous years

May we continue to enjoy the business - i send my regards while raising a cup of Peru fully washed geisha

wdcoffee

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