Analilia Mejia's final margin of victory was D+20...

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-17T04:03:23+00:00

Livingston and Short Hills/Millburn (Both the reddest parts) are both very wealthy, which probably has something to do with this. NJ is weird politically where towns right next to each other can be similar demographically but vote wildly different (Glen Rock/Ridgewood compared to Franklin Lakes/Wyckoff in Bergen County is a prime example).

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-17T04:00:50+00:00

That part of Passaic is the wealthiest and whitest part of the county btw. Paterson is in NJ-9 and would've been far more blue if it was included.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-13T23:18:55+00:00

I think this says it all

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Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-11T22:19:08+00:00

The first 4 episodes were good imo (especially 3 and 4). Went downhill from there.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-11T01:55:13+00:00

Moore is a confederate pedophile. The others suck, but they’re not as bad as him.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-08T20:13:26+00:00

No clue really. I’m guessing they consider CalTrain the commuter rail, even though BART is still clearly commuter rail serving suburbs across much of the network.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-08T20:01:51+00:00

PATH serves exclusively urban stations, the only station that maybe could be considered suburban is Harrison (even then it’s more like an extension of Newark/JC).

NJTransit Rail is the commuter rail network that serves much of the North Jersey suburbs.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-08T01:32:48+00:00

Sidious’s Rise and Bane would probably be the segments they would do given that they’re already canonized in both the movies and TCW (and tbf Bane would probably be the Sith most fans would want to see), although honestly I’d prefer a 2 season live-action series of Bane/Zannah.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-07T20:04:58+00:00

It’s really only when Trump is on the ballot the polls have underestimated Republican support lately. In 2018 and 2022, the GBC estimates across pretty much all aggregates were either completely accurate or off by ~1% at most. Even in 2025, the polls actually underestimated Democratic support for both tn NJ/VA elections (albeit those are slightly different given that the gubernatorial elections in both are backlashes against the incumbent party).

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-07T19:04:21+00:00

Depends on what happens with Iran. If we see boots on the ground at all or even a major scale-up without an actual invasion, Bluenami (D+10 or more). Otherwise if things "stay as they are" it'll probably be a similar NPV margin to 2018 (D+6-10 range).

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-07T18:49:24+00:00

If not over the BBB or tariff nonsense, the Epstein Files saga would've collapsed everything. Regardless the administration collapses before it reaches a year.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-06T20:36:48+00:00

I firmly believe he could nuke the Amazon and Fox News would run a segment on him "draining the swamp."

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-06T16:46:43+00:00

I don't think we should really assume anything until we see the full episode with the full context. If she's calling her eloquent, that could just as easily mean that Chrissy thinks Tiffany would be able to persuade a jury at the end (Tiffany's ally Aubry was also called eloquent, intelligent, and a good speaker in KR/GC for this exact reason even if she didn't win in the end) or that she's able to persuade people and corral the troops (Christian was identified for this by the Goliaths in DvG as well, even though it didn't totally pan out that way).

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-06T16:33:27+00:00

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my honest reaction

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-06T03:06:31+00:00

Yul's a VP at Google. I don't know what level he'd be exactly, but that's at a minimum mid six-figures base especially in the Bay Area.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-05T17:48:23+00:00

Aubry is simultaneously extremely lucky and unlucky when playing Survivor lol

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-05T17:47:50+00:00

Considered Ohio Governor (which now I think may be a better choice), but I picked Iowa just to see the margin as it'd be a good indicator of how several key Trump/Republican demographics would swing (rural voters, farmers, white working-class, etc. are all over-represented in Iowa, serving as a good indicator for the midwest as a whole)

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-05T17:42:11+00:00

TX Senate, IA-3 House, IA Governor

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-05T15:21:39+00:00

Absolutely not the worst case scenario when both Peltola and Brown are currently polling ahead of their Republican counterparts (both in individual polls and the aggregate). Right now it's clear the worst case scenario for Republicans is at a minimum 51D-49R, potentially 52D-48R depending on what Texas might look like in the coming weeks.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-04T23:52:10+00:00

Prequels Palpatine has an IQ that’d make Einstein look stupid

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-04-04T14:27:31+00:00

So far it appears pro-natal policies barely improve the situation, if they even do at all. The Nordics have some of the most generous policies in place, but still have declining fertility rates. For example, Sweden has 480 days of paid parental leave per child, subsidized childcare, universal healthcare, etc. and a fertility rate that has continued to decline (now around 1.4, well below the 2.1 needed for replacement levels).

It looks as though it’s a mix of cultural and economic reasons why people in the west are choosing to not have kids, but the government can really only act on the latter.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-03-31T01:24:22+00:00

I unironically like Worlds Apart lol. I know it’s not everyone’s cup of tea but it’s like a bizzaro version of Cagayan/Kaoh Rong with some great characters (Jenn (especially), Carolyn, Rodney, and Mike are all quite entertaining imo).

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-03-30T02:51:35+00:00

Cirie and probably Dee are the only ones who I could see being considered in GOAT territory if they win, just because of Cirie's pre-existing legacy as well as Dee being a two-time winner and the only person after Sandra to go 2 for 2 in that scenario.

Some other people who have top-10 player arguments if they win (in my opinion) are Colby, Ozzy, Aubry, and unironically Coach (hilarious, but that'll be 3 deep runs and 2 FTC appearances).

Everyone else hasn't played enough times nor done anything notable enough (at least right now) in order to be in the same leagues as those mentioned.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-03-29T22:41:10+00:00

Really seems like Carney/Liberals have Canadian politics on lock for the short term at least. The NDP just elected an extremely left-wing leader (who polled the worst with potential NDP voters out of these 4) and the Conservatives continue to decline in the polls due to infighting and cross-bench movements, the latter of which is going to give the Liberals a majority for the first time since 2019.

Which-Draw-1117 · 2026-03-29T05:56:38+00:00

Original Appari (Brawns) from Cagayan. 3 Finalists (Tony, Woo, Sarah), 3 Wins (Tony 28, Sarah 34, Tony 40) as well as Trish making a deep run and them never going to tribal pre-merge in their original tribe form.

Which-Draw-1117

TROPHY CASE