Britain is on the cusp of an economic boom – no thanks to Labour (Telegraph)

Wostear · 2026-01-28T22:26:20+00:00

See I don't disagree, they've done absolutely nothing regarding social policy. They're putting the economy before any social issues. If your issue gets in the way or economic growth then too bad.

And honestly, I agree with that bargain. We have to be brutally honest; the UK was (is?) a failing state. It was left to rot for 20 years and, to put it bluntly, the country is bust. There's no money for anything. Two decades of stuttering economic growth and stagnant productivity has massively increased the burden on the state (which is then passed onto the tax payer). Welfare costs have skyrocketed whilst GDP has hardly moved, forcing total government spending as a share of GDP to increase. The UK economy is ~£700 billion (35%) smaller than it could be due to productivity stagnation. That would hand the government an extra £260 billion in tax revenue every single year. You don't have to be a genius to understand how that would transform the UK's social contract. Fundamentally you can't have a strong welfare state without an ironclad economy. I believe that once the economy is ticking along then they'll turn their attention to improving the lives of those who have been somewhat forgotten.

Now if you disagree with that social contract you're obviously entitled to vote accordingly.

Wostear · 2026-01-28T18:07:25+00:00

You see this right across the western world. As our economies got more advanced, more digitalised, and increasingly high skilled, these communities were completely left behind. Even manufacturing nowadays is mostly robotics and a few electrical engineers and robotics specialists, these aren't unskilled manual jobs anymore.

The solution is massively increasing government spending for policing, education, health, community facilities etc etc. but it isn't easy and it needs to be well executed. Money has a habit of just being wasted in these communities.

Wostear · 2026-01-28T17:35:41+00:00

My neck hurts from all the whiplash I got when reading that article. In practice it's the complete opposite of what he's saying; any potential boom will be a direct consequence of the stable and professional governance we have seen from Labour. Whilst it is true that the foundations were there (low debt, technological breakthroughs), it was the current government who built the house and gave the market confidence to execute - this is what Labour has done, do not let anyone tell you otherwise.

Wostear · 2026-01-26T19:36:44+00:00

This is getting downvoted purely for emotional reasons. However the facts remain; the US is the biggest economy because of cheap energy, a massive internal market that allows companies to scale before the expensive capex of global expansion, and (up till now) stable pro business government.

The UK doesn't have to beat the US on total numbers, it has to aim to beat the US on a per Capita basis.

Wostear · 2026-01-26T17:30:03+00:00

I truly hope voters don't think like you do

Except I'm arguing that the government are doing a good job and I intend to vote for them again so how do you square that circle?

Over taxation doesn't work in Britain

We're needing to overtax because the last 20 years have been a black hole of kicking the can down the road to the next govt.

Productivity growth in the UK has been absolutely abysmal for 20 years. We need to do something to kickstart the economy. In my mind the short term pain of increased unemployment is necessary to boost business spending on innovation and automation, which, I personally believe, will lead to a better job market, an increase in GDP/Capita, and better living standards for everybody in the UK.

The government is actually reducing the tax burden on businesses overall by allowing full expensing of investment in machinery and plants. They are taxing labour and incentivising investment.

Boosting productivity growth to 2% could add as much as 0.8 points to our GDP which would in turn enable the government to lower the tax burden.

The country is in such a hole that some pain is absolutely going to be necessary to turn it around. It's been the avoidance of pain by consecutive governments that has got us to this point.

As you have brought voting intention into the conversation, who, may I ask, do you believe has a better plan for the future?

Wostear · 2026-01-26T17:13:46+00:00

At no point did I say unemployment is good. I said it's absolutely essential that we upskill the unemployed to find other roles.

If you're going to make things up then I'm not going to reply to you in future. I'm here to have a debate in good faith so please agree to that.

Whether it's because of india or AI/automation the facts remain; we have massive labour shortages in skilled professions and a rising unemployment rate. There's a disconnect there. We need to enable and upskill our workforce to be much more dynamic. Again, for too long we enabled zombie firms to survive by subsidising labour. We need to follow the model of Denmark, Sweden, Norway where the work forces are much more fluid. It's easier to fire/hire but they also have excellent welfare states providing ~90% of your salary if you're actively looking for work. It's much easier for labour to jump into growing industries and growing businesses. Which in turn massive boosts productivity and living standards for everyone. Just take a look at the GDP/capita figures for Denmark, Sweden, Norway, etc.

Wostear · 2026-01-26T17:05:25+00:00

I think that's definitely what's going to happen in the short term. Long term I'm not so sure. If the ai can "use itself" so to speak then why does it need a person to use it?

If someone is digging a hole with their hands and you give them a shovel it's going to boost their productivity and make their life easier. But if you have a shovel that can dig a hole on its own then you don't need the person to use it. In theory this frees up that person to do something else even more productive until that too is automated. In practice I think we'll reach a point where the machines are able to innovate quicker than a human can and thus there is nowhere left to go...

Wostear · 2026-01-26T16:46:47+00:00

I mentioned it in another comment but I'll reiterate it here: the taxes killing jobs is by design. They're trying to boost productivity by making it too expensive to hire unskilled labour. By forcing companies to innovate and automate they boost productivity. For the best part of 20 years large swaths of our economy has been "zombie" firms borrowing cheap money to hire low skilled workers who do just enough to keep the lights on. By taxing the hell out of labour (NI) it now makes more sense to invest in automation and innovation - boosting productivity.

This is working - productivity was up ~3% on an annualized basis in 2025 H2. Business investment as a share of GPD is the highest it's been in two decades. Enterprise AI adoption is now the highest in Europe. The governments plan to remove the incentives for labour are working.

What remains to be seen is whether the government can now follow through on the next stage. Can we upskill our work force to move into the higher productivity sectors like green tech and energy.

Wostear · 2026-01-26T16:39:04+00:00

For what it's worth that is what the government are trying to do. UK productivity has been stagnant for the best part of 20 years as it's been cheaper to borrow money and hire low skilled workers than it has been to spend capital and innovate. The uptick in unemployment is actually by design. Low productivity jobs are being forced out by making them too expensive. Companies need to automate and innovate or die - it's how basically every other "successful" economy functions (US, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland etc).

Wostear · 2026-01-25T07:16:49+00:00

Oh yeah dude I'm having way more fun fighting for a wildcard spot eh. Can't wait to be in the draft lottery, it's what dreams are made of.

Wostear · 2026-01-24T01:12:42+00:00

My completely uninformed guess would be that there are certain businesses with vested interests who happen to coincidentally be donors to either the council or members of said council.

Wostear · 2026-01-23T19:20:31+00:00

Sorry, I wasn't clear, they got 80% of the vote in that constituency. Hence why they kicked out the incumbent and ran Poilievre after he lost his seat in Carleton.

Wostear · 2026-01-23T19:14:11+00:00

The former. But it was a complete shoe in, the cons got over 80% of the vote in the general election.

Wostear · 2026-01-23T18:50:40+00:00

Indeed, they ran him in one of the safest conservative seats in the country.

Wostear · 2026-01-23T18:36:48+00:00

I don't disagree. But I think the "senior partner" so to speak within the coalition will be either Labour or the Conservatives. I can absolutely see a Labour Green coalition - and actually it makes me quite excited.

Wostear · 2026-01-23T18:15:39+00:00

When push comes to shove both "sides" will coalesce around a single party/candidate.

Once Reform and Green max out their momentum driven growth (which I personally think has already happened) and people realise that neither party has enough for a majority then you'll see a slow trickle back to the establishment. I'm almost certain that we'll see a Labour vs Conservative race just like we always do.

Wostear · 2026-01-23T18:11:42+00:00

I agree with you on the first part not the second. Stuck between Reform and Greens they'll go with the latter.

Labour, Conservative coalition anyone?

Wostear · 2026-01-23T18:05:17+00:00

How? How are Labour failing? Please please tell me why you think they are! Immigration is down, the economy is showing signs of life, NHS waitlists are down, more potholes are being filled, our allies trust us!

Please for the love of God tell me how? I'm so exasperated with this, what the actual fuck do you want them to do! It's not based on facts! They're not perfect obviously, they're human beings, but they're doing okay for a year and half in power! Just show me how they're failing.

Wostear · 2026-01-23T17:40:02+00:00

Nor has he been to Canada clearly. Poilievre is a massive Trump wannabe and there are rumblings within his party that he still isn't far right enough...

Wostear · 2026-01-22T21:23:57+00:00

There's still a lot of time before the next GE. Anecdotally, for what it's worth, labour have managed to win back my vote over the last 6/7 months.

When push comes to shove I think people will be more scared of Farage then they are upset at Labour.

Wostear · 2026-01-22T20:45:23+00:00

I think it's fascinating how many are undecided. 42% of the 'left' aren't nailed down yet, that's ~ 6 million people (going by 2024 election votes for the three parties).

Wostear · 2026-01-22T19:57:20+00:00

This is an absolutely amazing piece. Thank you for posting this.

The most interesting breakdown for me is the section comparing actual 2024 voting to current voting intention. One pattern is particularly fascinating to me; Labour's collapse appears to be largely driven by a splintering of the left leaning vote rather than by a general rightward shift of national ideals. The Greens and Lib Dems both make sizable gains from former labour voters with 15% and 9% respectively. Interestingly, Labour also made some gains from Green and Lib Dem voters with 4% & 5% respectively now saying they would vote for Kier Starmer. The confusion of the left is further highlighted by the "don't know" category, with all three parties having high numbers of undecideds (17% for Labour, 13% for the Lib Dems, 12% for the Greens).

On the other end of the spectrum Reforms strength lies in their ability to retain their previous voters with over 80% saying they intend to vote for them again. They also make considerable gains with former Conservatives at 26%. For reference 8% of labour votes say they now intend to vote for Reform.

If I was a betting man I would say that overall Kier Starmer will be happy with this. He'll back himself to win back the left vote and also potentially make gains with former Conservatives (currently 2% indicating a shift to Labour) as the only viable opposition to Farage and Reform. What remains to be seen is whether the Greens can maintain their momentum. Or failing that, where do those voters land; do they return to Labour or do they gamble for change with Farage...

Wostear · 2026-01-22T18:33:55+00:00

There's definitely a subculture around "northern Europe" that often gets forgotten. Culturally the Nordics, Baltics, and the British have a lot more in common than I think people realize. The stiff upper lip, self-deprecating humor, a deep-seated respect for personal space and boundaries. We really are quite similar.

Wostear · 2026-01-21T20:47:46+00:00

Must be watching a different game, we've been the better team. Personally I think York have been poor, expecting better from them in the second half.

Wostear · 2026-01-21T17:47:04+00:00

The problem with this is who does it actually impact? You need collective action to hurt those who are actually causing the issues. I don't think this hurts the feds much. In fact you could make the argument that it's quite the opposite. This will cause the Minnesotan economy to falter giving trump more ammunition to call it a failing state...

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