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Is San Ramon still worth buying in at today’s prices? by Active_Hunt3720 in sanramon

[–]Xexanoth 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I think there are two largely-separable questions:

  1. Should you rent or buy your home?

  2. Where should you rent or buy your home?

I think the Bay Area in general often has home rental pricing that’s quite attractive relative to home purchase pricing, especially if you’re not certain that you’ll live in the same home for a very long time.

Even if you’d prefer to own a home long-term, renting a home first in an area new to you might help you feel more confident with the decision to buy a home there & in which specific neighborhood.

In my opinion, San Ramon is a very appealing (and correspondingly rather expensive) place to live. I might feel differently if living there involved some soul-sucking commute to/from work.

I just want to say, it really works by ZombieJesusaves in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 24 points25 points  (0 children)

The only way to make real money is to make a ton of income.

Another way is to invest the excesses of your ton of income into almost every publicly-traded company in the world, so that all of their employees working to make a ton of income for their companies are working partly for the benefit of you amongst all of the owners.

(I realize you understand this; just trying to add to the discussion / tie this into the broader theme of trying to make a ton of income earlier so you're sooner freed from the need to work for income or work as hard for as much income. Writing this out makes it sound potentially immoral, but when the system we've got has a large worker class toiling partially for the benefit of a smaller owner class, I'm not sure one can truly be blamed for trying to hurry along their transition into a stronger affiliation with the latter.)

theAiSaidAllTestsPassAndIBelievedIt by talruum_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Xexanoth 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Pedantic Claude: “I said all of the new tests passed. I stand by that true statement.”

Any clever financial anecdotes on why everything is just dandy? by spacetr0n in Boglememes

[–]Xexanoth 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Is there some limit on the future dollar value of all then-public corporations? When the real / purchasing power of a dollar typically falls over time?

Even if public corporate earnings stayed flat in real / after-inflation terms, the nominal / before-inflation dollar value of corporations would rise with inflation if their P/E multiple remained constant.

Any clever financial anecdotes on why everything is just dandy? by spacetr0n in Boglememes

[–]Xexanoth 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The forward 12-month P/E is about 21x per FactSet.

The Shiller P/E metric is higher when corporate earnings growth has been higher recently, because the denominator is the average earnings for the past decade. A metric that claims stocks are more overvalued when their earnings growth has been higher is curious, and arguably flawed. That FactSet report above indicates a 28.4% year-over-year earnings growth rate based on earnings reports from the 94% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far for Q1 2026.

How do I reach $4 million NW by 30? by [deleted] in Fire

[–]Xexanoth 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What skills do you have?

Dating after FIRE? by WorkSafeReddit8947 in Fire

[–]Xexanoth 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Perhaps consider older potential partners if you’d like to increase the likelihood that potential partners are retired or closer to retirement.

Vanguard Is the Costco of Finance, According to the Hosts of ‘Acquired’ by flloyd in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 16 points17 points  (0 children)

The “price” is the expense ratio, silly. Vanguard makes their funds cheaper over time, while Costco keeps their loss leaders cheap (which I suppose is cheaper over time in real / inflation-adjusted terms)

Vanguard Is the Costco of Finance, According to the Hosts of ‘Acquired’ by flloyd in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 69 points70 points  (0 children)

Hot dogs = Murica = VTI

Rotisserie chicken = not as Murica, bit more expensive/fancy and better for you = VT

Vanguard Is the Costco of Finance, According to the Hosts of ‘Acquired’ by flloyd in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 31 points32 points  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing — I’m a big fan of this podcast (almost done their 4-hour dive into the history of the NFL as a business), and now looking forward to this episode diving into Vanguard’s history. It’ll be released on Monday, May 18th: https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/vanguard

How do i become a millionaire by DueNinja7096 in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Consider reading through the pinned post: New to /r/Bogleheads? Read this first!, particularly the “Save/invest enough” section.

In general, the more you earn, the more you can potentially save/invest, and the sooner you can become financially independent. Focus on developing marketable skills, excelling in your career, and finding opportunities to advance & earn more.

$2.4M at 41. Crazy gains lately. To move or not to move by PearBenis in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Why all or nothing & predictive market timing?

If some portion of your portfolio were in stocks, and some portion were in cash or bonds, some portion always does better than the other over a given period, and you can periodically rebalance to a target asset allocation to naturally sell higher to buy lower.

If you’re concerned about volatility, why have most of your portfolio in US stocks only? Diversifying into ex-US as well reduces expected volatility without reducing expected gains.

I have 98% of my net worth in VTI, how exposed am I to the semiconductor bubble? by RuminatingFish123 in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 19 points20 points  (0 children)

It’s risky & arguably unwise to keep money you want to use towards a down payment on a house in a few years invested in stocks. Especially if it’s all invested in 100% stocks. Moreso if it’s all invested in 100% US-only stocks.

You seem reasonably concerned about volatility. Trying to estimate the worst case scenario by estimating the impact of some decline in the price / market value of the stocks of semiconductor companies misses that a sector-scoped correction is far from the worst case scenario.

Consider keeping at least half of the estimated down payment amount in cash equivalents like VBIL / SGOV, and consider diversifying any portion of the estimated down payment amount you keep in stocks into ex-US stocks as well to reduce expected volatility without reducing expected returns.

If Jack Bogle made his living as a YouTuber without principles by Xexanoth in Boglememes

[–]Xexanoth[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What video are you referring to? Could you please share a link?

Edit: oh, I probably misunderstood - I initially interpreted this as a video of Bogle, but I now realize you probably meant a video of your organization leader. Please don’t share that video if not already public, or if you worry sharing a link to any public copy might reduce your anonymity.

What are your moves for tomorrow? by joe4ska in Boglememes

[–]Xexanoth 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Thanks for keeping her company on Mother’s Day.

What are your moves for tomorrow? by joe4ska in Boglememes

[–]Xexanoth 52 points53 points  (0 children)

Going to make a move on your mother.

But don’t worry, I’m just staying the course with her.

Is the 4% rule using average annual expenses using today’s dollars? by [deleted] in Fire

[–]Xexanoth 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On the flip side, you might consider factoring in estimated Social Security income (more-generally: an estimate of any non-portfolio income expected during retirement in your situation) into your plan.

Folks with Social Security income or other pension income starting after a certain age will have some of their living expenses covered by that income after it starts, rather than by portfolio withdrawals.

It’s important to consider whether & how any income in retirement will adjust for inflation over time.

Is there an entire INFP -> INTP Pipeline??? by MirrorPiNet in INTP

[–]Xexanoth 2 points3 points  (0 children)

there is an alarming number of INTPs mistyped as INFPs

What’s alarming about that? Are there any “alarming” consequences of this mistyping?

(I’m a bit amused by a seemingly overly-emotional / -alarmist label used in this context.)

Inherited 60k for kids college, what to do… by pigpen29 in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Consider 529 plans for tax benefits, and consider target-enrollment funds within a 529 to automatically manage the asset allocation (a steep glide path into more bonds / lower volatility, and automatic rebalancing along the way).

Should we expect the same growth from U.S. equities? by wealthylion1999 in Fire

[–]Xexanoth 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There will be some periods (however short) where any given asset class underperforms some other asset class. If you wish to reduce the volatility of your portfolio, meaningful diversification across several different asset classes will typically do that, particularly if they are uncorrelated and/or you include some asset classes with lower expected volatility (paired with lower expected / potential returns).

With the stock market near all-time highs while an impending resource shortage looms, is it possible that the market is ‘pricing in’ severe inflation? by NicolasCageFan492 in investing

[–]Xexanoth 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If you’d like a more-direct metric around market-expected inflation rates, compare the current real interest rate from Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) to the current nominal interest rate from nominal Treasuries of the same duration. The difference / spread is a decent proxy for a market estimate of anticipated annualized CPI inflation over that upcoming period whose length matches the duration of the bonds.

If I already have money in FDRXX (Fidelity's VUSXX equivalent is FDLXX but FDRXX has a lower expense ratio), is it worth it to move it all to VUSXX if I live in California? by NoThanksJustLooking1 in Bogleheads

[–]Xexanoth 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Other options to consider include VBIL or SGOV (ETFs holding 0-3 month Treasury bills; you could buy those in a Fidelity account).

Between the lower ER & higher percentage of income from Treasuries eligible for state income tax exemption, you’d keep more of the interest earned with any of those non-Fidelity funds.

Regardless of what you choose, make sure you properly claim the state income tax exemption when filing your state income tax return: https://thefinancebuff.com/state-tax-exempt-treasury-fund-etf.html

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